December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[westiztehbest]

What the f*ck are you smoking?

 

Arctic Kush with a dab of Drunk Uncle's fairy dust.  Snowing here now but expecting marginal accumulations due to temps at 33 F.  Should get purdy cold next week.  Snow chances late Monday and Thursday should be enjoyable as high temps will be in the teens and 20's.  Hoping to get 6" at least b/t the two storms and 1-2' in the mountains.

[mountainman]

hahaa 

dwai go git ur own chit

[mountainman]

Ya PDX good luck gittin snows down in those suthern parts.  Dream like we do up here.  This global crisis is like walking deads.  U can't beat em down hahahah

Now git ur hands offa my crackkk bChacha

 

Go look at models instead..don't respoind here

[catnip]

Wtf?

[snow_wizard]

For those keeping score the 12z ECMWF operational and 18z GFS ensemble mean both show 850s dropping to -9 for Seattle.  The number I said we were likely going to see a couple of days ago.  Not bad for a wish caster like me.  I also mentioned later model runs would probably remove the snow shadow from the Central Puget Sound.  Happened on the 12z GFS, 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF.  Some user who shall remain nameless really pissed me off this morning so I will gloat if this all goes according to plan.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS Discussion starting to add more details:

 

Monday night through Friday...Unsettled winter
weather will be the rule to start the period. It looks as though a
few showers will continue Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of
the system on Monday. Breaks in the clouds and a generally cool air
mass will lead to lows near freezing many areas Tuesday morning,
meaning some of the showers will be of snow even at low elevations
but with light spotty accumulations if any. The models show brisk
north to northwest flow aloft taking hold later Tuesday, with
offshore flow taking effect Tuesday night and Wednesday leading to
brisk cold and rather widespread east winds over the forecast area.
Gradients through the Gorge could be on the order of 8 to 10 mb, so
these winds are not likely to be garden variety east winds.
Wednesday looks generally dry as a result. The faster GFS and the
slower ECMWF are coming together slowly and will go with an
increasing likelihood of precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday.
The moisture will override the colder air in place so expect some
winter weather with this system as well. Thermal profiles and
thickness values suggest that any low elevation snow might brief and
the main impact will be a period of freezing rain. The actual threat
of freezing rain will be determined by how cold the surfaces can get
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, which will also be influenced
by events earlier in the week. At this point, model differences are
too large to pinpoint the transition back to rain with any
certainty, but probably by Friday. An interesting week is ahead of
us. Tolleson
&&

 

 

Mark's forecast

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

 

Unless the models trend in our favor,, I think Monday is a OLM north event for the lowlands. Hopefully things go a bit better for Thursday but current models don't look good for snow there either.

[HighlandExperience]

What the f*ck are you smoking?

 

He gets free heroin in Vancouver BC

[Jbolin]

Ya PDX good luck gittin snows down in those suthern parts.  Dream like we do up here.  This global crisis is like walking deads.  U can't beat em down hahahah

Now git ur hands offa my crackkk bChacha

 

Go look at models instead..don't respoind here

Dude, should we call someone for you or what?

[Kayla]

 

PDX NWS Discussion starting to add more details:

 

Monday night through Friday...Unsettled winter

weather will be the rule to start the period. It looks as though a

few showers will continue Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of

the system on Monday. Breaks in the clouds and a generally cool air

mass will lead to lows near freezing many areas Tuesday morning,

meaning some of the showers will be of snow even at low elevations

but with light spotty accumulations if any. The models show brisk

north to northwest flow aloft taking hold later Tuesday, with

offshore flow taking effect Tuesday night and Wednesday leading to

brisk cold and rather widespread east winds over the forecast area.

Gradients through the Gorge could be on the order of 8 to 10 mb, so

these winds are not likely to be garden variety east winds.

Wednesday looks generally dry as a result. The faster GFS and the

slower ECMWF are coming together slowly and will go with an

increasing likelihood of precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday.

The moisture will override the colder air in place so expect some

winter weather with this system as well. Thermal profiles and

thickness values suggest that any low elevation snow might brief and

the main impact will be a period of freezing rain. The actual threat

of freezing rain will be determined by how cold the surfaces can get

Wednesday night and Thursday morning, which will also be influenced

by events earlier in the week. At this point, model differences are

too large to pinpoint the transition back to rain with any

certainty, but probably by Friday. An interesting week is ahead of

us. Tolleson

&&

 

 

Mark's forecast

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

 

Unless the models trend in our favor,, I think Monday is a OLM north event for the lowlands. Hopefully things go a bit better for Thursday but current models don't look good for snow there either.

 

 

That's from yesterday... New 7 day has changes.

[Perturbed Member]

That's from yesterday... New 7 day has changes.

 

Take a look at it yourself, that is what I see right now.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS has snow levels 1000 feet or below for all of next week Sunday through Friday for the East Puget Sound lowlands.  That's pretty bold actually.

[BLI snowman]

 

PDX NWS Discussion starting to add more details:

 

 

 

Mark's forecast

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

 

Unless the models trend in our favor,, I think Monday is a OLM north event for the lowlands. Hopefully things go a bit better for Thursday but current models don't look good for snow there either.

 

 

Looks reasonable, I would say it looks a little too cold for Monday and too warm for Thursday and possibly Wednesday.

[van city]

Dude, should we call someone for you or what?

LOL, that guy is special.

[crf450ish]

I've recorded a -28 here in Redmond. It was February 2014. Minus 20 a few times in December 2013.

-28F?  Umm not in Redmond western Washington you didn't. Theres no way it ever got that cold there. 

[van city]

Wtf?

That idiot migrated here. LOL

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-28F? Umm not in Redmond western Washington you didn't. Theres no way it ever got that cold there.

Central Oregon

[Weather101]

Wtf?

Is that hawk ?

[crf450ish]

Central Oregon

Oh ok, thank you for the correction. Apparently my geography sucks. 

[Weather101]

Ya PDX good luck gittin snows down in those suthern parts. Dream like we do up here. This global crisis is like walking deads. U can't beat em down hahahah

Now git ur hands offa my crackkk bChacha

 

Go look at models instead..don't respoind here

I don't want crack tho

[catnip]

Is that hawk ?

Hahaha Could be!

[van city]

Hahaha Could be!

Probably is.

[ShawniganLake]

NAM looks awesome for my location Monday. 6-8". Come on NAM, you got this one.

[Trainwreck]

Looks reasonable, I would say it looks a little too cold for Monday and too warm for Thursday and possibly Wednesday.

You probably know more than Mark. Lol

[Trainwreck]

Redmond Oregon. We tied the all time record low that month. Been close to it a few times since I've lived here. Brutal cold to say the least. I grew up in the Portland area so when I moved here it caught me off guard.

[TT-SEA]

NAM looks awesome for my location Monday. 6-8". Come on NAM, you got this one.

 

 

Way too warm down here.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS
Begins in.... 15 minutes

We need the Kona Low to behave so the GOA/Alaskan block holds a tad longer allowing the Arctic trough to dig a bit more favorably out of BC.

Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)
Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197
North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197
North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197
Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

[ShawniganLake]

Way too warm down here.

The MM5 NAM is way drier than what is shown on the tropical tidbits site. Temps look marginal at best up here as well.

[snow_wizard]

NAM looks awesome for my location Monday. 6-8". Come on NAM, you got this one.

 

I never even look at the NAM anymore.

[TT-SEA]

Lake Washington in a month...  

 

http://cdn-image.travelandleisure.com/sites/default/files/styles/1600x1000/public/1448910459/Siberia-WTG0116.jpg?itok=Db4I0-_z

[Deweydog]

Lake Washington in a month...

 

http://cdn-image.travelandleisure.com/sites/default/files/styles/1600x1000/public/1448910459/Siberia-WTG0116.jpg?itok=Db4I0-_z

Not much snow on the ground. Dry cold is B-O-R-I-N-G.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1 block slightly stronger, tad more amplified, and a slight notch further northwest than 18z, 12z

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120300/024/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

Block looks nappier, nippier, nocturnal, nationalist and neapolitan.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 36 - Kona may be developing slower and taking more of a W/NW track.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120300/036/500h_anom.na.png

[catnip]

Nice to see you back DJ. Hope things are better at home today!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120300/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice to see you back DJ. Hope things are better at home today!

Hey thanks. She is doing much better. Model riding and discussing weather with you all is very helpful distraction.

[catnip]

Hey thanks. She is doing much better. Model riding and discussing weather with you all is very helpful distraction.

Great to hear!

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 66

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120300/066/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

Chilly willy run so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

Chilly willy run so far.

Arctic trough digs a bit more favorably