December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Woah what that at face value.

That is Vodka cold for sure!

[Front Ranger]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120500/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

 

Drought relief!

[crf450ish]

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 00z GFS has YVR bottoming out at around -21C, SEA -18C and PDX -15C.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good grief....Overrunning storm pulls in more cold air by hour 276 lol

[snow_wizard]

Can't wait to see the ensemble.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like CZ north of Seattle is starting to fire up again.

[snow_wizard]

The updated run of the 00z GFS has YVR bottoming out at around -21C, SEA -18C and PDX -15C.

Safe to say it would be top tier.

[Dave]

1300 line is now south of us and 925 mb temps are about -1c over Portland...assuming at least moderate precip rates we should see a solid mix or even a changeover to wet snow (non-sticking) down to the valley floor. Sticking snow level looks to be around 1000' currently over the city with top of Sylvan and Mt Scott perhaps seeing some very light accumulation with showers over the next couple hours.

Way too real for this forum at this time.  Most peeps are drunk off model riding.

[Heavy Snow]

Reload at hour 300!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/300/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

This run is computerized Ritalin.

[Bryant]

Well, I was going to check the temp in the car, but the door is frozen shut.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the love of God...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png

[snow_wizard]

That run is Jan 1950 to a T. The shape of the area of cold anoms is textbook. Any winter that has seen that gets tons of snow in Seattle.

[IbrChris]

Reload at hour 300!

 

Arctic blastgasmic

[BLI snowman]

Canadian looks nice with Thursday, probably shows 3-5" for both Portland and Seattle.

 

One awesome thing at a time, guys!

[Deweydog]

I can't wait to see the analogs!!!

[Front Ranger]

Probably the most pornographic run from end to end that I've ever seen.

[EA_TTD]

This run is computerized Ritalin.

We have a winner!

[IbrChris]

For the love of God...

 

Snow in Sonoma County...lol

 

When is the last time Eureka, CA got snow? Dec 1990?

[Heavy Snow]

Safe to say it would be top tier.

 

Yeah, the fact that the models are going this crazy bodes well for the rest of the Winter. It's not a question now of if but when.

[IbrChris]

It's not cold enough unless the 498 line touches BLI along with 80 kt Fraser outflow.

[BLI snowman]

But seriously, I would pay an unhealthy amount of my savings to see that run come to fruition.

[Deweydog]

Probably the most pornographic run from end to end that I've ever seen.

Not a model reader in January 2005?

[Heavy Snow]

That run is Jan 1950 to a T. The shape of the area of cold anoms is textbook. Any winter that has seen that gets tons of snow in Seattle.

 

I like the sound of that. Even if we get half of what January 1950 delivered, it would be fantastic. 

[Deweydog]

Canadian looks nice with Thursday, probably shows 3-5" for both Portland and Seattle.

 

One awesome thing at a time, guys!

The Canadian is to be ignored.

[Kayla]

1300 line is now south of us and 925 mb temps are about -1c over Portland...assuming at least moderate precip rates we should see a solid mix or even a changeover to wet snow (non-sticking) down to the valley floor. Sticking snow level looks to be around 1000' currently over the city with top of Sylvan and Mt Scott perhaps seeing some very light accumulation with showers over the next couple hours.

 

I think everyone just forgot about tonights/tomorrow event after that run! With your experience in forecasting long range (days 7+) What are your thoughts on the GFS pattern evolution over the next 7-10 days?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well looks like our warning shot leading up to January...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Arctic express.

[Heavy Snow]

Arctic blastgasmic

 

Yup. I have a feeling if we can just get the Arctic air to come down, then everything is going to go wild!

[Deweydog]

PDX back to reality.

[crf450ish]

I gotta say this is pretty dang epic to witness this forum going nuts right now. Reading though the archives is one thing....being part of it and seeing it go down is another. 

[FroYoBro]

But seriously, I would pay an unhealthy amount of my savings to see that run come to fruition.

I think we all would. 

[Front Ranger]

Not a model reader in January 2005?

 

Nope.

 

The models weren't nearly as cool back then, anyway.

[MossMan]

Snow shower!

[crf450ish]

Arctic express.

Polar Express

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 31 here!

[Heavy Snow]

I'm out of breathe now. 

[Deweydog]

Nope.

 

The models weren't nearly as cool back then, anyway.

Definitely. They were frigid, not cool.

[Timmy]

Just got home. A few flakes on a frozen deck. Need some precip now. Reports of a dusting between scappoose and Vernonia around 1000'