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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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31 with ZR in EUG. Salem has bumped up to 34, dp of 21 though...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120812/namconus_T850_nwus_53.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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You could make a case that all 3 are, tremendous model agreement. Even the 00z EURO which didn't look as good from a 850mb temperature perspective showed 3 freezing or below highs starting next Wed and huge snow/ice storm for PDX Metro/SW Washington on Thursday.

The models are still struggling to grasp the pattern progression upstream. Don't spike the football yet.

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925mb 0C line is a little south of Albany right now. It has actually moved slightly south the past hour I guess.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The EURO run from last night does look better for Friday at least. Crossing fingers.

 

Nice bulls eye over Kirkland, Bothell. 22 currently. Brrr

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tons of precip around Portland on the HRRR at 3 p.m.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016120813/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f10.png

 

 

 

Unfortunately the HRRR is also showing major splitting of the front when it gets up here    This is at 11 p.m.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016120813/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f18.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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925mb 0C line is a little south of Albany right now. It has actually moved slightly south the past hour I guess.

Mid levels should cool a bit with the onset of precip given the depth of the dry air. Bad side of that is the fact it's gonna take awhile for anything to reach the ground.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The models are still struggling to grasp the pattern progression upstream. Don't spike the football yet.

 

I'm not but it's about that time where the models need to start converging on a solution. Does this remind you of November 2014 where the Arctic airmass was so bitter cold that it made it's way more West? The huge Arctic Blast was suppose to leave the PNW with little or no cold air but the models trended colder and colder leading up to the event so much that the NWS here was actually forecasting a snowstorm but all we got was sleet.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if I even started with ZR/SL. Though Horse Creek about 7 miles east of here at 3400' is still at 20.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm not but it's about that time where the models need to start converging on a solution. Does this remind you of November 2014 where the Arctic airmass was so bitter cold that it made it's way more West? The huge Arctic Blast was suppose to leave the PNW with little or no cold air but the models trended colder and colder leading up to the event so much that the NWS here was actually forecasting a snowstorm but all we got was sleet.

I see some similarities to that one but some differences too.

 

Key here is we have the tropical forcing trying to yank us into a +EPO/+AO while the extratropics are trying to maintain the amplified NPAC wavetrain/-EPO. Any flattening of the precursory waveguide over the NPAC (hub for EA/NA torque ratios) could ruin the rest of December..January things change again but instead of 150E forcing we'd like more IO forcing, so lolz.

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Looks like some snow falling on traffic cams just west of Corvallis.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Flurries breaking out right now...That band of precip is pretty thin at the moment...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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