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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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This is slightly OT, but I found this to be an interesting read about our climate almost 100 years ago. The article mentions a 40 degree drop in temps, I have to imagine they are talking in F.

 

http://www.mapleridgenews.com/community/242450001.html

 

Throwback Thursday!!!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Typical Seattle NWS no passion

 

Could you write your own morning discussion...just for us? And not mention any change over to rain or any of that stuff! Just kidding, you guys do a great job, we are just all weenies. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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NWS is going to blow their forecast for northern WA.

 

Only thing they have right is the wind advisory.  It is howling right now...-16mb cywl-bli diff.  Non-urban temps are still in the low 20's.  EC's forecast wants up to 6" through Sat but it is just going to drift.  If NWS was doing its public duty they would be issuing a blizzard warning for the north county as EC just did.

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The 12z ECMWF continues the theme of improvement w/ the overall wavetrain, though it's almost certainly wrong with the extreme positive tilt of that trough axis and the corresponding southwesterly dig. Regardless it's a huge step in the right direction.

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850s drop to -16c at PDX and -17c at SEA on day 10 on the Euro.  :blink:

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Where are you in relation to my location? I'm about to head home from university of Portland

 

I'm south of you. Just off Skyline above Cornell on the ridge top and exposed big time to the east winds. Basically look right at the Fremont bridge and PDX from above.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Decent returns still having some issues making it too far north of the river.  Should change fairly soon...

 

I am north of the river!   I can report that its not snowing here.   In fact... its sunny and 27.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sounds purty.  

 

Yeah we love it. Definitely really fortunate to be up here.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at.

With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models showed drying and no precip. We got 2-3 inches from that in Seattle. In other cases, the dry air won.  I'll see later.  I'm a little concerned that outflow from the Fraser will keep the area NE of Bellingham in the cold for the foreseeable future.  I'm not sure about the change to a mix or rain up there Except maybe near the water and south of the hills.

 

Concerning the longer term...Monday is looking potentially interesting - but the moisture leaves before the cold air comes down. Time will tell. But it is looking cold. With the very cold air over western Canada and Alaska and the high latitude block along 150W, combined with some undercutting of the flow along 40N -W Wa will be in the middle of the battle zone. I really don't know the details on how the models are handling tropical moisture and convection at this time (model changes are happening at a fast pace), but very cold air nearby and moisture from the south could make things quite interesting over the next couple of weeks. The end of next week looks interesting. 

 

Models in this pattern tend to be quite unstable. Model riding is dangerous.  It will be difficult to get things right even in the short term.

 

Awesome post, thanks.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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18z HRRR has precip starting around 7-8PM tonight. Actually has some nice precip rates at 9PM (second image). Definitely not as shredded as previous runs showed.

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2016120818/009/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016120818/hrrr_ref_frzn_nwus_11.png

Excellent! the rain at my house looks outstanding. Love this run!

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Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at.

With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models showed drying and no precip. We got 2-3 inches from that in Seattle. In other cases, the dry air won.  I'll see later.  I'm a little concerned that outflow from the Fraser will keep the area NE of Bellingham in the cold for the foreseeable future.  I'm not sure about the change to a mix or rain up there Except maybe near the water and south of the hills.

 

Concerning the longer term...Monday is looking potentially interesting - but the moisture leaves before the cold air comes down. Time will tell. But it is looking cold. With the very cold air over western Canada and Alaska and the high latitude block along 150W, combined with some undercutting of the flow along 40N -W Wa will be in the middle of the battle zone. I really don't know the details on how the models are handling tropical moisture and convection at this time (model changes are happening at a fast pace), but very cold air nearby and moisture from the south could make things quite interesting over the next couple of weeks. The end of next week looks interesting. 

 

Models in this pattern tend to be quite unstable. Model riding is dangerous.  It will be difficult to get things right even in the short term.

Thanks so much!! I would have "liked" your post but I used them all up already today. If nothing else just having the possibilities and the setup for possible continued cold and snow is fantastic and something we haven't had much of over the last few years! Thanks for sharing your expertise with us! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Raining now in south Salem

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sleet here in N salem

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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