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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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I am seeing official totals of:

 

Sea-Tac 0.5"

Seattle WFO: 0.8"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4.5" of powder here. 27F and snowing currently.

 

Very nice start to winter for you guys up there!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah it stayed at 30-31 all night here too. Hard to believe we could be seeing another major cool down in about 4 days. Although for places on the Canadian Border and east side the cold will never be really going away.

Yeah...the big picture still looks good.

 

I just need to shake this disappointment off and move on. It boggles my mind how none of the patterns that deliver heavy snow to my area refuse to materialize. I haven't had a good snow since January 2012. It's almost a sick joke that it's colder here this morning than places that got a lot more snow than me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Parallel GFS is colder early next week. Doesn't show the arctic blast in lala land, but is setting up for one at the end. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I am seeing official totals of:

 

Sea-Tac 0.5"

Seattle WFO: 0.8"

SEA got more after the 0.5.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Parallel GFS is colder early next week. Doesn't show the arctic blast in lala land, but is setting up for one at the end.

Right now early next week is the most important. The ECMWF ensemble clearly shows the second blast. In fact the latest run looked quite a bit better than previous ones for the second half of week 2.

 

The CFS shows it being quite cold for a solid month. That model actually does decent in shorter ranges.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yeah glad I'm not working today.

 

It's a shame we saw that tongue of warmth at 925mb since this really wasn't even a "warm"

system, per se. 850s never went above zero and thicknesses stayed at 540dm or lower.

Along with Obamacare, it'd be nice to see Trumpy follow through with one of his early campaign promises to abolish the 950-900mb level of atmosphere.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Can someone please post snow totals for various cities. Especially for W. WA. That is more helpful than non-descript pictures or complaining posts about how little an area got. Trying to see how widespread of an event this actually was...

My feeling is a lot of places did pretty well. I'm really pissed this morning.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Right now early next week is the most important. The ECMWF ensemble clearly shows the second blast. In fact the latest run looked quite a bit better than previous ones for the second half of week 2.

 

The CFS shows it being quite cold for a solid month. That model actually does decent in shorter ranges.

 

I am actually thinking if we get a major blast it will be within a day or two of Christmas give or take. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Along with Obamacare, it'd be nice to see Trumpy follow through with one of his early campaign promises to abolish the 950-900mb level of atmosphere.

How about abolish east winds any stronger than 15mph for Covington.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I am actually thinking if we get a major blast it will be within a day or two of Christmas give or take.

Maybe...hard to imagine it taking that long though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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My feeling is a lot of places did pretty well. I'm really pissed this morning.

 

Weren't many places down here that got more than 1"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Maybe...hard to imagine it taking that long though.

 

I think early next week and next weekend will be more back door with the majority of the cold air sliding east. Should be plenty cold at the surface though. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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About 2 inches up here and still snowing and 25 degrees.   Almost blizzard-like down in North Bend with strong winds and drifting snow.     I took this picture in downtown North Bend while driving my kids to school... which is open and on time.  :)

 

15418360_1172194576182082_80775266913367

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z slightly colder with early next week. Still not as cold as the 06z ensemble mean.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Several inches of snow here in Victoria overnight, currently sitting at 32F. I'm sure it will go into melt mode in a few hours but at the moment it's a winter wonderland.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3718_zpsoutn2bda.jpg

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3735_zpsjzgpa2q1.jpg

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12z slightly colder with early next week. Still not as cold as the 06z ensemble mean.

It's kind of weird how the 850s on the 6z didn't really reflect how nice the 500mb pattern was. Kind of a disconnect there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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About 2 inches up here and still snowing and 25 degrees.   Almost blizzard-like down in North Bend with strong winds and drifting snow.     I took this picture in downtown North Bend while driving my kids to school... which is open and on time.   :)

 

15418360_1172194576182082_80775266913367

 

Great pic! I honestly feel this event overperformed for the region as a whole. The NWS predicted snowfall totals in the PDX metro were just silly. We did well considering the situation and the low level cold air has been surprisingly (But predictably stubborn). Eugene just popped into the 40s, 12-18 hours later than expected. If this is our event of the winter than cue the weeping and gnashing of teeth, if it is just the teaser, than job well done!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Seems like most places had 1 inch or less. Hardly anything to satisfy our snow starved appetites. Like you I feel this past week was a bit dissapointing in the snow dept. hopefully we can make up for it here shortly

I think a lot of places west of here got 2 or 3 inches.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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About 6 inches on the ground here now... the 2 inches on top is very powdery and drifting a little.    Temperature not budging yet... in the mid 20s.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's kind of weird how the 850s on the 6z didn't really reflect how nice the 500mb pattern was. Kind of a disconnect there.

 

Unfortunately we have seen that before. Good thing we have a lot of snow cover east side to work with that will create a pretty mean low level cold airmass. If we got a week of clear weather like the 06z showed we would probably see very chilly temps. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Great pic! I honestly feel this event overperformed for the region as a whole. The NWS predicted snowfall totals in the PDX metro were just silly. We did well considering the situation and the low level cold air has been surprisingly (But predictably stubborn). Eugene just popped into the 40s, 12-18 hours later than expected. If this is our event of the winter than cue the weeping and gnashing of teeth, if it is just the teaser, than job well done!

 

 

The picture does not capture the nature of the weather though... the wind was howling and snow was drifting down the roads like you see in North Dakota.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, yeah. That was exactly what I thought too when I woke up. It is just a little maddening to always think about the "what ifs" in our climate.

 

I'm not really bothered by it. Happy with what we saw and interested with the upcoming potential since the pattern seems to stay pretty cold going forward.

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If it makes you feel better Jim my temp is 40 and over half of my snow has melted. It will probably be mostly gone when I get home from work. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm not really bothered by it. Happy with what we saw and interested with the upcoming potential since the pattern seems to stay pretty cold going forward.

You still have the glow of 2013-14 to bask in. This is about the worst snow drought ever recorded for this area. By that I mean the amount of time since we've had a 2 inch or more snowfall. Given how early it the season it still is I'm sure I'll get over it quickly.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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All the way to school as we drove through low visibility and drifting snow... my boys were complaining and wondering WHY was school still open and on time.    Everyone was just moving along slowly and going about their business.    

 

I told them that we are not weather wimps in the valley.   Schools stay open through windstorms, and floods, and snowstorms.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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