December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[The Swamp]

It's going to be  okay.

 

I see nothing in the models that worries me at this point.

 

It's just some model wobbling.

 

This is a lock.

 

Might not be historic or epic but most are going to see some frosty mornings all week.

[FroYoBro]

Wow. How stupid were we for thinking we could score in January. 

 

There should be a separate forum for you extreme hilltop weenies. 

[Trainwreck]

Outlier guys. R-E-L-A-X

[chopper 918]

Outlier guys. R-E-L-A-X

Thank you!!!

[Goducks09]

Warning Shot 2.0.

[Bryant]

Where is Timmy to tell us it trended east?!

[HardDrinkinLincoln]

Is that hyperventilating I here?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is probably worse than the 2011/2005 model collapses. This is literally on the eve of the event. DJ even said these events were "LOCKED IN" at this point. 

[Jbolin]

Outlier guys. R-E-L-A-X

Your handle, this post = Irony 

[Kayla]

Wow. How stupid were we for thinking we could score in January. 

 

Stop.

[FroYoBro]

Down to freezing here now!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Where is Timmy to tell us it trended east?!

 

He just posted on FB about how much this sux

[Trainwreck]

Remember the warm outliers from the ensembles earlier? This is just what one of those looked like as an operational run. Chill folks

[James Jones]

This is probably worse than the 2011/2005 model collapses. This is literally on the eve of the event. DJ even said these events were "LOCKED IN" at this point. 

 

You're bad at trolling.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The Canadian has trended warmer too.

 

Here's to the Canadian and GFS runs tonight!! 

 

[Kayla]

This is probably worse than the 2011/2005 model collapses. This is literally on the eve of the event. DJ even said these events were "LOCKED IN" at this point. 

 

ONE, run, ONE model. Relax weenie.

[Goducks09]

I'm worried about 'Heavy Snow'.  Someone put out an APB on him!!!

[Jesse]

You're bad at trolling.

 

He's terrible at it. That makes it even worse somehow.

 

Although he is getting to everyone so he wins. That is how the trolling game works.

[chopper 918]

This is probably worse than the 2011/2005 model collapses. This is literally on the eve of the event. DJ even said these events were "LOCKED IN" at this point.

Here's an idea. Step away from the computer screen and stop worrying about whether frozen water droplets will fall from the sky at your location or not.

[crf450ish]

Yet another prime example of why I moved EAST of the cascades. Too many letdowns........ 

 

 

Meanwhile its 18 at my house and theres 17" of snow on the ground. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Let's just relax the models shift day to day but only panic when the 18z tommriw kills it. Otherwise we are good?

[Guest Sounder]

Okay, now I'm starting to get why Tim enjoys stirring up the weenies. You guys are hilarious.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is probably caused by global warming. 

[The Swamp]

This looks weird and unlike previous runs.

 

It definitely does not look good.

 

Just one run though.  I'm as cool as the other side of the pillow on this one.

[Front Ranger]

Another 50-100 miles please. First run to show 1" here at least.

 

This is a dynamic front. Not like anything seen in awhile. Models, even this close, have a pretty weak handle on what will actually happen tomorrow night/Sunday.

[Bryant]

This is probably caused by global warming.

Mod preview time

[luvssnow_spokane]

Remember the warm outliers from the ensembles earlier? This is just what one of those looked like as an operational run. Chill folks

Point it this weekend looks warmer too. Wobble or a correction?  We shall see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mod preview time

 

We probably cannot have lows below 20 at PDX anymore in January. Bill Nye agrees. 

[Kayla]

Everyone should just start reporting his posts at this point. I think we've all had our fill. Enough's enough.

 

Done!

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is a little stronger with the low tomorrow night and the WRF spits out over 2 inches of snow here!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seriously it's disappointing, just one run though. Not being serious, just drawing out the tension in the room. 

[Bryant]

We probably cannot have lows below 20 at PDX anymore in January. Bill Nye agrees.

Bill Nye is an idiot

[snow drift]

[luvssnow_spokane]

The GFS is a little stronger with the low tomorrow night and the WRF spits out over 2 inches of snow here!

that will melt. Enjoy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS is a little stronger with the low tomorrow night and the WRF spits out over 2 inches of snow here!

 

Exactly, let's focus on the positive short term developments. All that other stuff will sort itself out in time!

[snow_wizard]

Remember the ECMWF ensemble has been leading the way with this and it was incredible today.  Not that the GFS really looks as bad as people are saying.

[snow_wizard]

Exactly, let's focus on the positive short term developments. All that other stuff will sort itself out in time!

 

I'm not worried at all about the longer range stuff.  People never learn though.

[overcast]

I'm liking the couple inch band shown for overnight tomorrow on the WRF from Tacoma to S Seattle - and a bit more toward the foothills. Also nice to see most areas beating their forecasted lows so-far.

[Phil]

Might be an erroneous run given the huge magnitude of the shift, so early on. Huge shift (even by 48hrs) with the initial shortwave riding under the EPO block. Just massive.

 

If 06z follows and/or the ensembles depict a similar evolution, then maybe it's something more. Just my opinion here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not worried at all about the longer range stuff.  People never learn though.

 

I agree. And it is what it is. Nothing we can do about it. It will change a million times.