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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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Just got back from a week in North Vancouver and the BC Kootenay region. Both areas have done substantially better in the snow department than Victoria. It was pretty cool/scary driving back through Manning Park yesterday, we hit that area just a little after the heavy snow started and there was over 6" of unplowed snow sitting on the highway as we were coming down the hill. I figured it would change to rain at the bottom of the hill but Hope too was getting heavy wet snow and the roads were a mess. Can't complain about a heavy snowpack in our outflow source regions.

 

I'm a little skeptical of the snowfall output the models are showing for tomorrow night/Sunday. Some are showing almost nothing on Vancouver Island, but the dynamics setting up are the most impressive I've seen since February 2011. I have a hard time believing the east side of Vancouver Island will stay dry through the whole event with conditions favorable for strait-effect/enhanced snowfall. It doesn't take much to trigger additional little surface lows over the south part of the island with 500mb heights below 528dm and 850mb temperatures below -10C (low heights and very cold upper level air spilling over warm water = fun). In both February 2011 and November 2010 the models failed to pick up on major local snowfalls even 24 hours out, this could easily turn out similar. We finally have an event happening at the optimal time of year for cold enhancement and snowfall, pretty exciting stuff.

 

 

The Coquihalla portion of highway 1 was closed 24 hours ago after tons of trucks spun out in the heavy snow. I drove through the beginning of that storm three days ago and it was already dicey but I got lucky to get through without delays both ways. I was on summer tires too and had no issues driving except where visibility got pretty bad... 

 

Today I sat in the car at Rogers Pass waiting for the avalanche crews to do their work. They have a cool job. Here's two pics I took while waiting.

 

20161230_092226.jpg

20161230_092216.jpg

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I'm glad we're to the point where this is considered a bad run.  Actually pretty good for the big picture.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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WRF definitely looks better for King County South and east along I-90

 

 

Definitely.   It has shifted the best zone to the south.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.48.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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WRF definitely looks better for King County South and east along I-90

 

The ECMWF was hinting at that also on the 12z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Might be an erroneous run given the huge magnitude of the shift, so early on. Huge shift (even by 48hrs) with the initial shortwave riding under the EPO block. Just massive.

 

If 06z follows and/or the ensembles depict a similar evolution, then maybe it's something more. Just my opinion here.

 

Canadian and NAM were both similarly milder.

 

Pretty massive difference by Wednesday on the GEM.

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Alright...time for a Forum break.  At least for the next 1 hour and 15 minutes.  In Euro we trust!   :P

 

We're good.  I can't even see what is THAT bad about this run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Canadian is very similar to GFS. I guess even if this does disappoint we have the whole rest of January :)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00Z GFS MOS shows 39 at SEA on Sunday and 34 on Monday.  

 

I have learned not to discount the GFS MOS.  

 

Does not go below freezing at SEA (after 32 tonight) until Sunday night at 10 p.m.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GEM was off on its own for the 12Z runs. Maybe it will end up looking like the hot garbage genius here.

 

The 00z GEM is remarkably different even from the 12z run, showing the cutoff energy completely underriding the block by midweek and an atmosphere at least 4-5 degrees warmer at that point.

 

Incidentally, that might become our best chance for significant snow if the trend continues and it moves towards us. 

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Kind of interesting to think that those outlier Euro runs a few days back may have been onto something after all. All major models made a move towards that solution, which is hard to see as a fluke at this late stage.

 

IDK if I have ever seen such a dramatic shift in one model run at such a late stage in the game. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Canadian and NAM were both similarly milder.

 

Pretty massive difference by Wednesday on the GEM.

Just saw the GGEM. Interesting.

 

Was such a shift that I thought I might've had to clear my cache or something. If the ECMWF and/or ensemble mean comes in similarly, then that'd be crazy. Hard to imagine what could induce such a drastic swing in the modeling within 48-72hrs. Bad satellite data or something? External forcing? Chaos? Maybe a combination of all three.

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WRF is great for this area tomorrow night. 2 to 3 inches here if it verifies. I still say widespread 1 to 3 inches with some places 4 or 5 for the Central Puget Sound. Sunday colder than forecast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 00z GEM is remarkably different even from the 12z run, showing the cutoff energy completely underriding the block by midweek and an atmosphere at least 4-5 degrees warmer at that point.

 

Incidentally, that might become our best chance for significant snow if the trend continues and it moves towards us. 

 

 

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see this turn into a PDX snowstorm midweek. These things can trend fast once the models get a handle on what is going on. February 2014 please. 

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Just saw the GGEM. Weird.

 

Was such a shift that I thought I might've had to clear my cache or something. If the ECMWF and/or ensemble mean comes in similarly, then that'd be something. Hard to imagine what could induce such a drastic swing in the modeling within 48-72hrs.

After the amazing ECMWF ensemble run today I have my doubts.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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WRF is great for this area tomorrow night. 2 to 3 inches here if it verifies. I still say widespread 1 to 3 inches with some places 4 or 5 for the Central Puget Sound. Sunday colder than forecast.

 

 

This has tirade written all over it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just saw the GGEM. Interesting.

 

Was such a shift that I thought I might've had to clear my cache or something. If the ECMWF and/or ensemble mean comes in similarly, then that'd be crazy. Hard to imagine what could induce such a drastic swing in the modeling within 48-72hrs. Bad satellite data or something? External forcing? Chaos? Maybe a combination of all three.

 

This could lead to an epic fail for your January thoughts and Jim's as well.

 

I think this latest model just is just a bunch hooey.

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Yet another prime example of why I moved EAST of the cascades. Too many letdowns........ 

 

 

Meanwhile its 18 at my house and theres 17" of snow on the ground. 

 

Yeah...it really is asking too much of this Pacific climate. Sometimes it gives handsomely but it's rare.

 

Even areas immediately east of the Cascades aren't THAT great either unless they're really high elevation. You can't go wrong with more latitude and being far from the Pacific.

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I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see this turn into a PDX snowstorm midweek. These things can trend fast once the models get a handle on what is going on. February 2014 please. 

 

Let's just hope the northern energy doesn't completely lose ground, which the 00z runs are already flirting with by Wednesday/Thursday. Would be a pretty remarkable collapse if so.

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Just saw the GGEM. Interesting.

 

Was such a shift that I thought I might've had to clear my cache or something. If the ECMWF and/or ensemble mean comes in similarly, then that'd be crazy. Hard to imagine what could induce such a drastic swing in the modeling within 48-72hrs. Bad satellite data or something? External forcing? Chaos? Maybe a combination of all three.

 

I'm right here.

 

I put my reputation on the line earlier today. Guaranteed an event topping Jan 2007, money back guaranteed. I knew that if this event was indeed jinxable, that would do the trick. Had to put it to the test.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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