December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[crf450ish 487]

Keeping my dads plow business going. He started doing it in 1977 with this truck. We have made a ton of money thru the years. I have about 30 contracts. Condos banks post office. 200 bux a hr and they line up to pay that.

$200 an hour? That's insane!!!! People really pay that for a plow?

[Poulsbo Snowman 287]

Best outcome in 4 years.

 

Have about 3.5 inches.

[hawkstwelve 5459]

Only about an inch here. Good thing this is just a warning shot.

 

Currently 31 degrees and a light rain/snow mix.

[Phil 10996]

$200 an hour? That's insane!!!! People really pay that for a plow?

Oh easily. A buddy of mine made over 15K during the blizzard last January plowing for the Verizon center and a few other big contracts.

[primetime 25]

http://i66.tinypic.com/286zpyw.gif

[Jesse 7705]

PDX is still below freezing and precip has been around most of the night. It's too bad the mid levels warmed so mariginally. We could have seen a lot of snow.

[mountainman 12]

PDX is often below freezing in a shallow layer with lots of rain/ZR instead of snow.  Gusty E winds.

[Altitude North 31]

We had some snow in Washougal but the wind was insane. It changed to ZR around 5pm yesterday and lasted all night. I had to chain up to get off the hill. First time for that.

[Randyc321 129]

My temp is currently falling slightly again.  

 

Sitting at 32.2  Was at 32.5 earlier

 

Have some cool pics to post I will put up in a bit.

[Timmy 1867]

PDX is still below freezing and precip has been around most of the night. It's too bad the mid levels warmed so mariginally. We could have seen a lot of snow.

I just woke up to a thick glaze of ice on everything. Gross. Heard the freemomt bridge is a sheet of ice now.

[Timmy 1867]

PDX is often below freezing in a shallow layer with lots of rain/ZR instead of snow. Gusty E winds.

Is that right?

[snow_wizard 10189]

Excellent pic. I've never seen that one before.

[crf450ish 487]

I just woke up to a thick glaze of ice on everything. Gross. Heard the freemomt bridge is a sheet of ice now.

Pics? I think ice is neat looking, albeit a serious pain to deal with....

[Jesse 7705]

PDX is often below freezing in a shallow layer with lots of rain/ZR instead of snow. Gusty E winds.

Actually snow is probably technically more common than freezing rain down here.

[snow_wizard 10189]

Man the models are horrible with these situations. It was supposed to be in the low 40s a few hours ago, and yet I'm sitting at 31 with a decent easterly breeze still going. Huge underestimation of how deep and plentiful the cold air was in the Cascade valleys. The pathetic amount of snow I got is still there.

 

I am tired of getting cold snaps with almost no snow.

[Chewbacca Defense 779]

Woke up to about 1", but then it started dumping around 6:20 and its still going

[Jesse 7705]

I just woke up to a thick glaze of ice on everything. Gross. Heard the freemomt bridge is a sheet of ice now.

Yeah glad I'm not working today.

 

It's a shame we saw that tongue of warmth at 925mb since this really wasn't even a "warm"

system, per se. 850s never went above zero and thicknesses stayed at 540dm or lower.

[Brennan 807]

27* with light snow here. Band is just missing to the east. My parents are getting moderate snow right now though!

[Jesse 7705]

Man the models are horrible with these situations. It was supposed to be in the low 40s a few hours ago, and yet I'm sitting at 31 with a decent easterly breeze still going. Huge underestimation of how deep and plentiful the cold air was in the Cascade valleys. The pathetic amount of snow I got is still there.

 

I am tired of getting cold snaps with almost no snow.

Yeah it stayed at 30-31 all night here too. Hard to believe we could be seeing another major cool down in about 4 days. Although for places on the Canadian Border and east side the cold will never be really going away.

[crf450ish 487]

Flurries here right now. Got a dusting overnight to add to the inch that blew around a few nights ago . Looking like some serious arctic air is going to invade the areas over here. NWS is calling for lows near or below zero with highs barely reaching double digits around here. It'll be interesting to see how cold the Purcell Trench gets. 

[Brennan 807]

Great reports coming in!

 

Can clearly see some CAA causing some instability off the coast. I'm going to guess that the precip over the north will be more like Monday with on and off heavy snow showers as opposed to uniform precip.

 

The GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP suite continue to suggest that the dry air will dominate, only to turn to rain once the precip actually starts falling. Pretty much a big middle finger to the face.

 

The Canadian suite continues to be incredibly bullish with 10" of snow today (and another 12" tomorrow). It's kind of hilarious to see such consistency from both sides, and both sides have incredibly different outcomes. 

 

I think the drier group is being too stingy with precip, but the Canadian output is obviously too juicy. But the instability will certainly make for an interesting afternoon.

 

I'm still sticking with my 4" call for this first wave. The second wave looks to arrive on Saturday, where it looks like precip will be for sure, but the question is.. rain or snow? I'm holding my call for an additional 4" on Saturday but it's also a very tough forecast.

Where are you talking about?

[FroYoBro 2379]

Yeah glad I'm not working today.

 

It's a shame we saw that tongue of warmth at 935mb since this really wasn't even a "warm"

system, per se. 850s never went above zero and thicknesses stayed at 540dm or lower.

It is best not to think about it. 

[luminen 356]

Light snow and 31F here. Downtown Vancouver isn't visible so that's good. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Can someone please post snow totals for various cities. Especially for W. WA. That is more helpful than non-descript pictures or complaining posts about how little an area got. Trying to see how widespread of an event this actually was...

[Timmy 1867]

Pics? I think ice is neat looking, albeit a serious pain to deal with....

http://i63.tinypic.com/jfjgut.jpg

[ShawniganLake 5259]

4.5" of powder here. 27F and snowing currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

I am seeing official totals of:

 

Sea-Tac 0.5"

Seattle WFO: 0.8"

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

4.5" of powder here. 27F and snowing currently.

 

Very nice start to winter for you guys up there!

[MR.SNOWMIZER 5655]

$200 an hour? That's insane!!!! People really pay that for a plow?

Yep. Made 13k in 2008.

[snow_wizard 10189]

Yeah it stayed at 30-31 all night here too. Hard to believe we could be seeing another major cool down in about 4 days. Although for places on the Canadian Border and east side the cold will never be really going away.

Yeah...the big picture still looks good.

 

I just need to shake this disappointment off and move on. It boggles my mind how none of the patterns that deliver heavy snow to my area refuse to materialize. I haven't had a good snow since January 2012. It's almost a sick joke that it's colder here this morning than places that got a lot more snow than me.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Parallel GFS is colder early next week. Doesn't show the arctic blast in lala land, but is setting up for one at the end. 

[westcoastexpat 343]

Where are you talking about?

Metro Vancouver higher hills.

[snow_wizard 10189]

I am seeing official totals of:

 

Sea-Tac 0.5"

Seattle WFO: 0.8"

SEA got more after the 0.5.

[mountainman 12]

Is that right?

lol u shud know u live down there right

[snow_wizard 10189]

Parallel GFS is colder early next week. Doesn't show the arctic blast in lala land, but is setting up for one at the end.

Right now early next week is the most important. The ECMWF ensemble clearly shows the second blast. In fact the latest run looked quite a bit better than previous ones for the second half of week 2.

 

The CFS shows it being quite cold for a solid month. That model actually does decent in shorter ranges.

[Deweydog 13279]

Yeah glad I'm not working today.

 

It's a shame we saw that tongue of warmth at 925mb since this really wasn't even a "warm"

system, per se. 850s never went above zero and thicknesses stayed at 540dm or lower.

Along with Obamacare, it'd be nice to see Trumpy follow through with one of his early campaign promises to abolish the 950-900mb level of atmosphere.

[snow_wizard 10189]

Can someone please post snow totals for various cities. Especially for W. WA. That is more helpful than non-descript pictures or complaining posts about how little an area got. Trying to see how widespread of an event this actually was...

My feeling is a lot of places did pretty well. I'm really pissed this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Right now early next week is the most important. The ECMWF ensemble clearly shows the second blast. In fact the latest run looked quite a bit better than previous ones for the second half of week 2.

 

The CFS shows it being quite cold for a solid month. That model actually does decent in shorter ranges.

 

I am actually thinking if we get a major blast it will be within a day or two of Christmas give or take. 

[snow_wizard 10189]

Along with Obamacare, it'd be nice to see Trumpy follow through with one of his early campaign promises to abolish the 950-900mb level of atmosphere.

How about abolish east winds any stronger than 15mph for Covington.

[snow_wizard 10189]

I am actually thinking if we get a major blast it will be within a day or two of Christmas give or take.

Maybe...hard to imagine it taking that long though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER 5655]

From all the driving i have done all night what i have seen is a solid 3.5 to 4 inches all over the kitsap pen. Even 3 inches at sea level in port orchard.

[Jesse 7705]

Along with Obamacare, it'd be nice to see Trumpy follow through with one of his early campaign promises to abolish the 950-900mb level of atmosphere.

 

I imagine that would cause some issues.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

My feeling is a lot of places did pretty well. I'm really pissed this morning.

 

Weren't many places down here that got more than 1"

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Maybe...hard to imagine it taking that long though.

 

I think early next week and next weekend will be more back door with the majority of the cold air sliding east. Should be plenty cold at the surface though. 

[Jesse 7705]

It is best not to think about it. 

 

I enjoy analyzing the weather!

[FroYoBro 2379]

I enjoy analyzing the weather!

 

Yeah, yeah. That was exactly what I thought too when I woke up. It is just a little maddening to always think about the "what ifs" in our climate.

[TT-SEA 1762]

About 2 inches up here and still snowing and 25 degrees.   Almost blizzard-like down in North Bend with strong winds and drifting snow.     I took this picture in downtown North Bend while driving my kids to school... which is open and on time.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

12z slightly colder with early next week. Still not as cold as the 06z ensemble mean.

[HighlandExperience 1458]

[VancouverIslandSouth 1546]

Several inches of snow here in Victoria overnight, currently sitting at 32F. I'm sure it will go into melt mode in a few hours but at the moment it's a winter wonderland.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3718_zpsoutn2bda.jpg

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3735_zpsjzgpa2q1.jpg