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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Keeping my dads plow business going. He started doing it in 1977 with this truck. We have made a ton of money thru the years. I have about 30 contracts. Condos banks post office. 200 bux a hr and they line up to pay that.

$200 an hour? That's insane!!!! People really pay that for a plow?

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Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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$200 an hour? That's insane!!!! People really pay that for a plow?

Oh easily. A buddy of mine made over 15K during the blizzard last January plowing for the Verizon center and a few other big contracts.

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PDX is still below freezing and precip has been around most of the night. It's too bad the mid levels warmed so mariginally. We could have seen a lot of snow.

I just woke up to a thick glaze of ice on everything. Gross. Heard the freemomt bridge is a sheet of ice now.
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Excellent pic. I've never seen that one before.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Man the models are horrible with these situations. It was supposed to be in the low 40s a few hours ago, and yet I'm sitting at 31 with a decent easterly breeze still going. Huge underestimation of how deep and plentiful the cold air was in the Cascade valleys. The pathetic amount of snow I got is still there.

 

I am tired of getting cold snaps with almost no snow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I just woke up to a thick glaze of ice on everything. Gross. Heard the freemomt bridge is a sheet of ice now.

Yeah glad I'm not working today.

 

It's a shame we saw that tongue of warmth at 925mb since this really wasn't even a "warm"

system, per se. 850s never went above zero and thicknesses stayed at 540dm or lower.

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Man the models are horrible with these situations. It was supposed to be in the low 40s a few hours ago, and yet I'm sitting at 31 with a decent easterly breeze still going. Huge underestimation of how deep and plentiful the cold air was in the Cascade valleys. The pathetic amount of snow I got is still there.

 

I am tired of getting cold snaps with almost no snow.

Yeah it stayed at 30-31 all night here too. Hard to believe we could be seeing another major cool down in about 4 days. Although for places on the Canadian Border and east side the cold will never be really going away.

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Flurries here right now. Got a dusting overnight to add to the inch that blew around a few nights ago :lol: . Looking like some serious arctic air is going to invade the areas over here. NWS is calling for lows near or below zero with highs barely reaching double digits around here. It'll be interesting to see how cold the Purcell Trench gets. 

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Great reports coming in!

 

Can clearly see some CAA causing some instability off the coast. I'm going to guess that the precip over the north will be more like Monday with on and off heavy snow showers as opposed to uniform precip.

 

The GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP suite continue to suggest that the dry air will dominate, only to turn to rain once the precip actually starts falling. Pretty much a big middle finger to the face.

 

The Canadian suite continues to be incredibly bullish with 10" of snow today (and another 12" tomorrow). It's kind of hilarious to see such consistency from both sides, and both sides have incredibly different outcomes. 

 

I think the drier group is being too stingy with precip, but the Canadian output is obviously too juicy. But the instability will certainly make for an interesting afternoon.

 

I'm still sticking with my 4" call for this first wave. The second wave looks to arrive on Saturday, where it looks like precip will be for sure, but the question is.. rain or snow? I'm holding my call for an additional 4" on Saturday but it's also a very tough forecast.

Where are you talking about?

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Yeah glad I'm not working today.

 

It's a shame we saw that tongue of warmth at 935mb since this really wasn't even a "warm"

system, per se. 850s never went above zero and thicknesses stayed at 540dm or lower.

It is best not to think about it. 

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Can someone please post snow totals for various cities. Especially for W. WA. That is more helpful than non-descript pictures or complaining posts about how little an area got. Trying to see how widespread of an event this actually was...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I am seeing official totals of:

 

Sea-Tac 0.5"

Seattle WFO: 0.8"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4.5" of powder here. 27F and snowing currently.

 

Very nice start to winter for you guys up there!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Yeah it stayed at 30-31 all night here too. Hard to believe we could be seeing another major cool down in about 4 days. Although for places on the Canadian Border and east side the cold will never be really going away.

Yeah...the big picture still looks good.

 

I just need to shake this disappointment off and move on. It boggles my mind how none of the patterns that deliver heavy snow to my area refuse to materialize. I haven't had a good snow since January 2012. It's almost a sick joke that it's colder here this morning than places that got a lot more snow than me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Parallel GFS is colder early next week. Doesn't show the arctic blast in lala land, but is setting up for one at the end. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I am seeing official totals of:

 

Sea-Tac 0.5"

Seattle WFO: 0.8"

SEA got more after the 0.5.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Parallel GFS is colder early next week. Doesn't show the arctic blast in lala land, but is setting up for one at the end.

Right now early next week is the most important. The ECMWF ensemble clearly shows the second blast. In fact the latest run looked quite a bit better than previous ones for the second half of week 2.

 

The CFS shows it being quite cold for a solid month. That model actually does decent in shorter ranges.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Yeah glad I'm not working today.

 

It's a shame we saw that tongue of warmth at 925mb since this really wasn't even a "warm"

system, per se. 850s never went above zero and thicknesses stayed at 540dm or lower.

Along with Obamacare, it'd be nice to see Trumpy follow through with one of his early campaign promises to abolish the 950-900mb level of atmosphere.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Can someone please post snow totals for various cities. Especially for W. WA. That is more helpful than non-descript pictures or complaining posts about how little an area got. Trying to see how widespread of an event this actually was...

My feeling is a lot of places did pretty well. I'm really pissed this morning.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Right now early next week is the most important. The ECMWF ensemble clearly shows the second blast. In fact the latest run looked quite a bit better than previous ones for the second half of week 2.

 

The CFS shows it being quite cold for a solid month. That model actually does decent in shorter ranges.

 

I am actually thinking if we get a major blast it will be within a day or two of Christmas give or take. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Along with Obamacare, it'd be nice to see Trumpy follow through with one of his early campaign promises to abolish the 950-900mb level of atmosphere.

How about abolish east winds any stronger than 15mph for Covington.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I am actually thinking if we get a major blast it will be within a day or two of Christmas give or take.

Maybe...hard to imagine it taking that long though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Share on other sites

My feeling is a lot of places did pretty well. I'm really pissed this morning.

 

Weren't many places down here that got more than 1"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Maybe...hard to imagine it taking that long though.

 

I think early next week and next weekend will be more back door with the majority of the cold air sliding east. Should be plenty cold at the surface though. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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About 2 inches up here and still snowing and 25 degrees.   Almost blizzard-like down in North Bend with strong winds and drifting snow.     I took this picture in downtown North Bend while driving my kids to school... which is open and on time.  :)

 

15418360_1172194576182082_80775266913367

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z slightly colder with early next week. Still not as cold as the 06z ensemble mean.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Several inches of snow here in Victoria overnight, currently sitting at 32F. I'm sure it will go into melt mode in a few hours but at the moment it's a winter wonderland.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3718_zpsoutn2bda.jpg

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3735_zpsjzgpa2q1.jpg

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