December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[FroYoBro]

The HRRRRRRRR is starting to look very moist for Portland today. It seems to do pretty well in situations like this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 with flurries inSilverton a light dusting

[Heavy Snow]

Wow, radar filling in explosively now as it starts it's final preparation into PDX Metro.

[Deweydog]

Reports of snow on the freeway in Albany.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's just funny to see them just come right out and say it. Makes weather forecasting sound divine.

Did it blow your toupee off this time ?

[Deweydog]

Did it blow your toupee off this time ?

The 6z did that.

[epiceast]

Being a retired science teacher for almost 40 years, we used "blind faith" in many of our testings of hypotheses and experiments.  Didn't you know science was based on blind faith.  LOL.  Oh and I use it with the Seattle Mariners too.  It's a very reassuring thing. 

Aka "intuition".

[Phil]

Hahaha, the ECMWF monthlies just flipped back to nationwide icebox after their +EPO blowtorch run back in November.

 

January looks ridiculous...-WPO/-EPO/-AO/-NAO. February looks like something out of planet Hoth..looks like the polar vortex breaks up and sits over Nebraska.

 

The PNW looks cooler than normal in every month from December through March, but especially February.

[seattleweatherguy]

Snow moving up faster?

[Heavy Snow]

Hahaha, the ECMWF monthlies just flipped back to nationwide icebox after their +EPO blowtorch run back in November.

 

January looks ridiculous...-WPO/-EPO/-AO/-NAO. February looks like something out of planet Hoth..looks like the polar vortex breaks up and sits over Nebraska.

 

Score! 

[Deweydog]

Hahaha, the ECMWF monthlies just flipped back to nationwide icebox after their +EPO blowtorch run back in November.

 

January looks ridiculous...-WPO/-EPO/-AO/-NAO. February looks like something out of planet Hoth..looks like the polar vortex breaks up and sits over Nebraska.

 

The PNW looks cooler than normal in every month from December through March.

#iceage2013in2017

[Jesse]

I think the radar will actually start to fill in a lot to the south over the next few hours.

#nailedit

[FroYoBro]

Flurries have already started here in Tigard. Really surprised it is reaching the ground so easily. Here we go! 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's been more than two years for many.

Yep... Pretty much The most recent snow I have seen here was December 10th, 2013 and it was a trace that melted by 10am (pic below)... I have a feeling tonights event for here will be about the same or less. East winds have a massive impact here. I can think of at least 3 occasions in the 10 years I have lived here where others would see snow 10 miles away from us and we would see nothing due to east winds/downsloping... It is a real ***** but an honest reality. I think this is one reason most models show very limited snow in this area. 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Flurries in NE Salem. Visibility dropping

[westcoastexpat]

Environment Canada calling for up to 10" for higher hills in metro Vancouver

[BLI snowman]

Being near and just north of that 540 thickness line always seems to be a good sign in these situations.

[Phil]

Clown range GFS pulls it off again. Looks like it tries to propagate/weaken that 120E forcing, so suddenly tropics start working to our advantage..that's a new development. I look forward to seeing how this one finishes.

[PV=nRT]

I have very light flurries falling. 10 miles south of downtown Portland.  34/20 T/DP.

[Deweydog]

Clown range GFS pulls it off again. Looks like it tries to propagate/weaken that 120E forcing, so suddenly tropics start working to our advantage..that's a new development. I look forward to seeing how this one finishes.

I thought we were supposed to know by 48 hours???

[crf450ish]

Took this picture at 7am atop a foothill above my house. Wind was calm at house, but easily blowing 20-25 mph where I took this pic. BRRRRRRR.....was easily 5 below or so considering it was 12 at my house when the pic was snapped...

 

http://i.imgur.com/mwNVJy0.jpg

[Kayla]

Sounds reasonable. Whoever made that call is a real fart smeller!

 

It's almost like the precip is moving in around 8-9am too... I wonder who said that!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A light dusting no in Salem

[MossMan]

I see high clouds to my south! Should start snowing by midnight here!!!! Currently 22F. And of course the 12z takes away all of my morning delight. 

[Kayla]

Fox 12 reporter doing a live report in Salem trying to identify if water falling from the sky is rain.

 

Good investigative journalism is alive and well.

 

Oh Marilyn, rest her soul...

[Jesse]

Flurries have already started here in Tigard. Really surprised it is reaching the ground so easily. Here we go!

How have the east winds been there? We used to get them pretty good on top of Bull Mountain.

[Phil]

I thought we were supposed to know by 48 hours???

Well, I was referring to the first 7 days there, not the clown range, but still this run shows how my logic could prove to be flawed if the model is mishandling the tropics.

[luvssnow_spokane]

8 days away....

 

 

[MossMan]

I'll tell you one thing: the incredibly dense fog over the past two nights in the Snoqualmie Valley has lent itself to two absolutely beautiful mornings. This morning there was a thick layer of frost on everything, with the blue sky piercing overhead and the snowy Cascades in the distance. If we can't get snow, I would gladly settle for this again. Gorgeous.

 

On another note, the 12z GFS doesn't look half bad for tonight. Shows more than the 00z run did through Friday 4PM. Snow starts around 10PM and lasts through tomorrow afternoon, at least in the EPSL.

 

I like how a few models (GFS/Euro/NAM) show snow continuing through tomorrow. It would be nice to have a no-work day and build snowmans with my son. He's three and a half now and this will be his first snowfall where he doesn't just stare at the snow like it's food.

I'm going to be that guy again...how does my area look for snowfall timing and duration?

[FroYoBro]

How have the east winds been there? We used to get them pretty good on top of Bull Mountain.

Pretty breezy all last night and now. That is why I am surprised these weak radar returns are letting snow reach the ground. Should be a good sign. . 

[MossMan]

8 days away....

 

gfs_T850_nwus_37.png

I thought the 12z looked crappy? Perhaps I was just seeing Phil posting and was assuming! haha!

[Perturbed Member]

It's almost like the precip is moving in around 8-9am too... I wonder who said that!

 

 

I pointed out that the HRRR was showing between 9AM and 10 AM as precip arrival time since yesterday afternoon. It seems to have had a decent handle on the movement of this thing. 

 

I do recall you pointing out the precip being ahead of what was modeled though.

[Phil]

I thought the 12z looked crappy? Perhaps I was just seeing Phil posting and was assuming! haha!

Lol, sorry! I was talking about the first 7 days, but this run handles the tropical forcings differently which could render my analysis worthless anyway.

[Heavy Snow]

I'm going to do my best not to try and look at the models today and just enjoy the Snow we're about to get. Already got my snow boots on and my sled ready. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z has arctic fronts

[Kayla]

I pointed out that the HRRR was showing between 9AM and 10 AM as precip arrival time since yesterday afternoon. It seems to have had a decent handle on the movement of this thing. 

 

I do recall you pointing out the precip being ahead of what was modeled though.

 

That's right, you spotted it first! Nice eye. It was Dewey who was a littler tougher to convince...

[luvssnow_spokane]

I thought the 12z looked crappy? Perhaps I was just seeing Phil posting and was assuming! haha!

Overall the run is very good. Not a 06z but good enough for the "goods"!...  promising but an eternity away from a meteorological standpoint. So we have plenty of time to get screwed.

[Kayla]

I'm going to do my best not to try and look at the models today and just enjoy the Snow we're about to get. Already got my snow boots on and my sled ready. 

 

Love this.

[Timmy]

I pointed out that the HRRR was showing between 9AM and 10 AM as precip arrival time since yesterday afternoon. It seems to have had a decent handle on the movement of this thing.

 

I do recall you pointing out the precip being ahead of what was modeled though.

I think most models started precip near pdx at 10. It's not there yet now. I'd say models were spot on

[Deweydog]

I'm going to do my best not to try and look at the models today and just enjoy the Snow we're about to get. Already got my snow boots on and my sled ready.

Make sure you go potty before you head out!