December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Lol, sorry! I was talking about the first 7 days, but this run handles the tropical forcings differently which could render my analysis worthless anyway.

First 7 days are not crappy either. 

[Phil]

12z GFS kills off the convection @ 120E and propagates it to 150E with the off-equator WPAC forcing going strong (a good thing for you guys in the winter).

 

If it holds, the Holiday blast will indeed verify.

[Goducks09]

Radar echos starting to look impressive.  What I wouldn't give for some sort of deformation band to form later today and set-up shop right over us into the evening! 

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS kills off the convection @ 120E and propagates it to 150E with the off-equator WPAC forcing going strong (a good thing for you guys in the winter).

 

If it holds, the Holiday blast will indeed verify.

 

Mark me down for that one.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Arctic fronts.  

[Deweydog]

12z GFS kills off the convection @ 120E and propagates it to 150E with the off-equator WPAC forcing going strong (a good thing for you guys in the winter).

 

If it holds, the Holiday blast will indeed verify.

So... what you're saying is if the 12z verifies we will get very cold.

 

Hmmmmm...

[Phil]

First 7 days are not crappy either.

Dude, I never once said it would be crappy, I just said it wouldn't be quite as nice as 06z through day 7.

 

Why is your reading comprehension so terrible?

[Timmy]

What if the 12z is just a 3rd warning shot before the kill shot?!???!

[Perturbed Member]

That's right, you spotted it first! Nice eye. It was Dewey who was a littler tougher to convince...

 

As you said, not easy to argue with the lawyer types 

[Perturbed Member]

I think most models started precip near pdx at 10. It's not there yet now. I'd say models were spot on

 

There were a lot of models yesterday that pushed the precip back to the 12-1 PM time frame. Mark highlighted this as one of the reasons for him to back way off from his original forecast.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Dude, I never once said it would be crappy, I just said it wouldn't be quite as nice as 06z through day 7.

 

Why is your reading comprehension so terrible?

I don't understand??   

[Heavy Snow]

Starting to snow here! Heading out now guys. The updated run of the 12z GEM is now showing an Arctic Blast for next week! My prediction is that the upcoming 12z EURO will show the same thing! See you all later! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 300...lol

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.png

[Phil]

I don't understand??

I can see that.

[catnip]

Environment Canada calling for up to 10" for higher hills in metro Vancouver

 

What do you think? I received a little over 7" on Monday, so would be nice to add another 10 to that!

[Randyc321]

Arctic fronts.

Care to elaborate?

 

Plus what do you see as far as changeover?  Think far East Kitsap if you would.

Still snowing tomorrow?

[Deweydog]

Canadian has a fun little system for Monday night/Tuesday morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heaviest precip is going to be west side too...Precip has already shut off for now here in Salem. I doubt SLE will see any real accumulations.

[Deweydog]

This system is starting to remind me of 1-3-16.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is on board with the GFS.

[DRG]

Sporadic snow flakes falling in inner SE Portland

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Care to elaborate?

 

Plus what do you see as far as changeover?  Think far East Kitsap if you would.

Still snowing tomorrow?

Next week looks real cold, Parts of kitsap may not change to rain at all.

[HighlandExperience]

It's going to be very interesting to see which model group ends up right. The ones where snow ends for the greater Seattle area tomorrow morning, or the ones where it shows snow continuing through tomorrow afternoon (mainly for EPSL, Hood Canal, Northern areas).

 

Since the Euro shows the latter, and the GFS has trended that way, I'm hopeful that solution will end up right.

 

Let us hope the EURO is right this time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This system is starting to remind me of 1-3-16.

 

Yeah I can see that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rod hill is getting scared!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heaviest precip is going to be west side too...Precip has already shut off for now here in Salem. I doubt SLE will see any real accumulations.

 

I say as it begins to snow moderately...

[Jesse]

This system is starting to remind me of 1-3-16.

Did you get 1.25" then too?

[Deweydog]

Yeah I can see that.

Obviously no mountain wave associated with that one, but the radar currently bares a striking resemblance.

[Deweydog]

Did you get 1.25" then too?

Pretty D**n close.

[Jesse]

Obviously no mountain wave associated with that one, but the radar currently bares a striking resemblance.

I hope we can avoid changing over as fast for this one.

[Timmy]

Flurries near scappoose

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes valley Jct on the way to the coast from Salem looks really messy.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I can see that.

I was actually playing off the words that Mossman used... I had actually not read your post. and I was kidding about not understanding... BUT I often do not comprehend about a 1/4 of what you write.

[BLI snowman]

I hope we can avoid changing over as fast for this one.

 

Air column looks pretty supportive until this evening. 

[Deweydog]

I hope we can avoid changing over as fast for this one.

We should. On the other hand that event had a much colder start. It was 23 here when the snow started.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Care to elaborate?

 

Plus what do you see as far as changeover?  Think far East Kitsap if you would.

Still snowing tomorrow?

later next week...  Plenty of cold and multiple chances for arctic fronts but not until Monday/Tuesday on.

[FroYoBro]

Well the band has reached me on the radar, but the flurries have actually stopped. #wintercancel 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well the band has reached me on the radar, but the flurries have actually stopped. #wintercancel 

HOW MUCH DID YOU GET!!??  pictures or it did not happen. 

[Kayla]

Yikes valley Jct on the way to the coast from Salem looks really messy.

 

What do you have for a temp up there now? Or are you down in Salem?

[Deweydog]

Lots of sleet over the coast range.