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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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I wonder how bad it would be if we had a 930mb low come on shore about seaside Oregon with a 1060 high in southern bc extending down into eastern wa.

let's order that up and find out! The 6z GFS will probably show just that!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I love the latest AFD from Seattle...basically nobody knows where or when the hell the pscz will set up so we are taking the wait and see approach which seems reasonable.

Yeah we have came so far with all our expensive computer models. Alot of times there no better than they were in 1996.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Yeah we have came so far with all our expensive computer models. Alot of times there no better than they were in 1996.

Yep...a long way to go yet in that department.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6" of Snow in Eugene.

 

I don't think Jim could handle that.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Tomorrow will be a manic Monday!!!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00z Euro has me feeling cautiously optimistic. Pretty rare to see the northward trend of a low reversed. Usually once it starts it's just a slippery slope.

 

I do think it depends somewhat on the overall pattern. Most of the times you're thinking of were probably a different pattern than what we're seeing come up.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Move this north 50 miles and we're golden...

 

15419539_1155743211199986_16592433031988

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15385269_1155751331199174_59190274365425

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah that's why I don't even care about weather models. I signed up for the WX bell free trial and cancelled several hours later. I've never been much of a gambling man anyway so the ideology of "what if" doesn't carry much, if any weight with me. Plus my personality doesn't do well with let downs. I just assume look at the NWS or WU forecast for 2 days out and ignore the rest.

 

However I do get really pissed about things that I can control that don't go my way.

 

You may be more above the fray than Dewey.  :o

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A forum for the end of the world.

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The low will move north at least 50-100 miles before verification, we don't want to use up our buffer too soon. 

 

You crack me up.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Move this north 50 miles and we're golden...

 

15419539_1155743211199986_16592433031988

If you look really closely you can almost make out Jim's very pissed off face in that image.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Well everyone is different. I'm not going to judge anyone on their actions, especially on an online forum. For myself, personally, getting upset at something I have absolutely no control over just breeds an unhealthy thought process.

 

I grew up pissed off in Graham, wa always seeing the snow fall when I went to bed then waking up to nothing. There were the few "epic" events in there. Finally, when I'd had enough of the bulls**** maritime climate, and enough $, I changed my conditions. Problem solved. It worked for me. I also realize NOT EVERYONE can just up and move.

 

Very true. 

 

And there's so much more to life than the climate you live in. Some of the best years of my life were spent in that maritime climate.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Wow... there is some heavy rain moving in from the north in one week on 00Z ECMWF.

Yay northern rain...better than southern rain I suppose.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Yay northern rain...better than southern rain I suppose.

 

No cold air to the north at that time... 925 temps are above zero all the way up through central BC.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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