Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I wonder how bad it would be if we had a 930mb low come on shore about seaside Oregon with a 1060 high in southern bc extending down into eastern wa. Rob would be blown away. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 The L on the 00z EURO is actually more South than the 12z EURO. Bulk of the moisture misses us but still a widespread 2" to 3" Snow for PDX Metro by Thursday 10am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I wonder how bad it would be if we had a 930mb low come on shore about seaside Oregon with a 1060 high in southern bc extending down into eastern wa. let's order that up and find out! The 6z GFS will probably show just that! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Snow never makes it to Seattle on the 00Z ECMWF. It actually trended south of its 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 00z ECMWF is actually too weak and too far south with the low for PDX to rack up the snow totals we were seeing on the 12z runs. Still much rather have this than the bullshit 00z GFS though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I love the latest AFD from Seattle...basically nobody knows where or when the hell the pscz will set up so we are taking the wait and see approach which seems reasonable.Yeah we have came so far with all our expensive computer models. Alot of times there no better than they were in 1996. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 6" of Snow in Eugene. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Snow never makes it to Seattle on the 00Z ECMWF. It actually trended south of its 12Z run. Will be a blend...all gets snow! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yeah we have came so far with all our expensive computer models. Alot of times there no better than they were in 1996.Yep...a long way to go yet in that department. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 1.25 inches for everyone from San Bernardino, CA to Prince George, BC. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 The models tend to trend North or under-estimate the amount of moisture making its way up North. Let's keep this solution the 00z EURO gives us for another day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Front Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Hoping euro looks nothing like the terrible 00z GFS.I thought the 00z GFS was quite nice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 If nothing else, Jesse should be able to breathe without a bag now. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z model runs actually had very good agreement and now they are all over the place, I guess we just need to keep playing the waiting game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I thought the 00z GFS was quite nice! The 00z GFS was smoking the good stuff says the Euro. I hope that thing is an outlier. I'd be ok with any solution that gets SEA-PDX a big snowstorm though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 6" of Snow in Eugene. I don't think Jim could handle that. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 If nothing else, Jesse should be able to breathe without a bag now. Still bitter about getting owned in that argument earlier? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Tomorrow will be a manic Monday!!! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 00z Euro has me feeling cautiously optimistic. Pretty rare to see the northward trend of a low reversed. Usually once it starts it's just a slippery slope. Then again the 00z GFS operational had pretty decent ensemble support.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Still bitter about getting owned in that argument earlier? You were literally hyperventilating over the northward trend in the low. Euro says...breathe. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Tomorrow will be a manic Monday!!! I might take a break from the models and drive out the Gorge to check out the snow sitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 00z Euro has me feeling cautiously optimistic. Pretty rare to see the northward trend of a low reversed. Usually once it starts it's just a slippery slope. I do think it depends somewhat on the overall pattern. Most of the times you're thinking of were probably a different pattern than what we're seeing come up. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 You were literally hyperventilating over the northward trend in the low. Euro says...breathe. A lot of my really ridiculous posts were meant to be comedic. Most people seemed to get that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Move this north 50 miles and we're golden... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 A lot of my really ridiculous posts were meant to be comedic. Most people seemed to get that. But they were followed up by truly angsty posts, which made them less comedic. Or comedic in a different way. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Move this north 50 miles and we're golden... The low will move north at least 50-100 miles before verification, we don't want to use up our buffer too soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yeah that's why I don't even care about weather models. I signed up for the WX bell free trial and cancelled several hours later. I've never been much of a gambling man anyway so the ideology of "what if" doesn't carry much, if any weight with me. Plus my personality doesn't do well with let downs. I just assume look at the NWS or WU forecast for 2 days out and ignore the rest. However I do get really pissed about things that I can control that don't go my way. You may be more above the fray than Dewey. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I don't think Jim could handle that. Poor snow_wizard. I don't think I'll be able to handle just 1"-2" of Snow and see Eugene get all the fun either after what happened in Dec 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 But they were followed up by truly angsty posts, which made them less comedic. Or comedic in a different way. It'll be ok Jared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 The low will move north at least 50-100 miles before verification, we don't want to use up our buffer too soon. You crack me up. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 It'll be ok Jared. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Move this north 50 miles and we're golden... If you look really closely you can almost make out Jim's very pissed off face in that image. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Wow... there is some heavy rain moving in from the north in one week on 00Z ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Well everyone is different. I'm not going to judge anyone on their actions, especially on an online forum. For myself, personally, getting upset at something I have absolutely no control over just breeds an unhealthy thought process. I grew up pissed off in Graham, wa always seeing the snow fall when I went to bed then waking up to nothing. There were the few "epic" events in there. Finally, when I'd had enough of the bulls**** maritime climate, and enough $, I changed my conditions. Problem solved. It worked for me. I also realize NOT EVERYONE can just up and move. Very true. And there's so much more to life than the climate you live in. Some of the best years of my life were spent in that maritime climate. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Wow... there is some heavy rain moving in from the north in one week on 00Z ECMWF.Yay northern rain...better than southern rain I suppose. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yay northern rain...better than southern rain I suppose. No cold air to the north at that time... 925 temps are above zero all the way up through central BC. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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