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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Hey man, if you have hate in your heart, let it out.... ya know?

Thanks. I do feel better now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The WRF is really awful even for Seattle. Shows almost no snow at all. A blend of the GFS and Euro would probably be quite good.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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nwsnow, jesse, and andrew cried enough earlier that the Euro felt bad... onto 12z runs

 

If that actually impacts the outcome, we're gonna ***** and moan as hard as we need to in order to get snow here. Believe me we will. 

 

For the sake of everyone's sanity here I really hope SEA-PDX can just get a solid 5-6+ inches somehow. 

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Looking at the radar and temperature obs it would seem Ferndale is about to get hammered with some very heavy snow.

Based on radar they could easily pick up 6" tonight.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Does anybody know why the WRF has been doing so poorly with the recent set-up? It doesn't even show any precipitation for Northern Whatcom County during the next 24 hours, but it is obviously snowing up there currently.

 

12-12-16Rain.jpg

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Does anybody know why the WRF has been doing so poorly with the recent set-up? It doesn't even show any precipitation for Northern Whatcom County during the next 24 hours, but it is obviously snowing up there currently.

 

attachicon.gif12-12-16Rain.jpg

 

WRF has been bad enough recently that I've just been ignoring it. It has been a poor performer the last week or so down here in the PDX area as well. Not sure why it is struggling so much. 

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Does anybody know why the WRF has been doing so poorly with the recent set-up? It doesn't even show any precipitation for Northern Whatcom County during the next 24 hours, but it is obviously snowing up there currently.

 

attachicon.gif12-12-16Rain.jpg

It overestimated the strength of the outflow tonight. Like always.

 

Had the general idea right with copious precip along the boundary, it just thought the boundary would be further South.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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The Fraser outflow is really kicking up now. Making nice progress.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Well, now it's really dumping on the Barkley Cam.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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To put Jesse's mind at ease a bit, 44/50 Euro Ensemble members take Thursday's low South of PDX.

 

I definitely understand fearing the inevitable North shift, but that's pretty impressive.

 

The 6z NAM is also South of the 00z NAM through hour 57.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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To put Jesse's mind at ease a bit, 44/50 Euro Ensemble members take Thursday's low South of PDX.

 

I definitely understand fearing the inevitable North shift, but that's pretty impressive.

 

The 6z NAM is also South of the 00z NAM through hour 57.

 

It is interesting just how juicy the low on the NAM is. 

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Haven't seen it snow this hard since February 2014. It's ABOUT TIME. 

 

Literally watched the snow line move south with TWO EYES. Drove north and south on the guide and watched the temp changes and found the snow/rain line around 10pm. It was moving south at about a mile per 20 minutes. Pretty fascinating to see. Finally changed to snow here about a half hour ago and now it's dumping. Cold air progressing south much quicker now. REALLY hoping Lake Whatcom can score tonight. Once they change over their totals should stack up pretty good.

 

EDIT: WINTER WONDERLAND HERE. 

 

I also feel the pain most are feeling right now. It sucks. Honestly this morning I just assumed we'd get screwed up here and would run out of moisture. Didn't follow the models at all today. 

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To put Jesse's mind at ease a bit, 44/50 Euro Ensemble members take Thursday's low South of PDX.

 

I definitely understand fearing the inevitable North shift, but that's pretty impressive.

 

The 6z NAM is also South of the 00z NAM through hour 57.

Yup...we're done here. Time to just accept it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think this storm is gonna verify as a bust for me. Downgraded to 2-6" for tonight and tomorrow and only a dusting so far, don't think i'll end up with more than 2". Getting shadowed hard again. Seems to me like there is no logic to when Missoula gets shadowed. The big hill is to southwest of us, we got westerly flow but no snow, even though this is supposed to be a pretty health shortwave.

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Haven't seen it snow this hard since February 2014. It's ABOUT TIME. 

 

Literally watched the snow line move south with TWO EYES. Drove north and south on the guide and watched the temp changes and found the snow/rain line around 10pm. It was moving south at about a mile per 20 minutes. Pretty fascinating to see. Finally changed to snow here about a half hour ago and now it's dumping. Cold air progressing south much quicker now. REALLY hoping Lake Whatcom can score tonight. Once they change over their totals should stack up pretty good.

 

EDIT: WINTER WONDERLAND HERE. 

 

I also feel the pain most are feeling right now. It sucks. Honestly this morning I just assumed we'd get screwed up here and would run out of moisture. Didn't follow the models at all today. 

 

 

 

Enjoying your event there through those Barkley web cams, beautiful over there. 

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The WRF really is handling the precip horribly. The stripe of heavy precip shown for king County hasn't / isn't happening.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think this storm is gonna verify as a bust for me. Downgraded to 2-6" for tonight and tomorrow and only a dusting so far, don't think i'll end up with more than 2". Getting shadowed hard again. Seems to me like there is no logic to when Missoula gets shadowed. The big hill is to southwest of us, we got westerly flow but no snow, even though this is supposed to be a pretty health shortwave.

I would give anything to be living where you are right now. Just remember what hell you could be going through.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow...went outside at 1215am and it was sleet/freezing rain (starting to accumulate)

 

Got buried in my computer then looked outside at 1255am and everything is completely white and it is DUMPING!!

 

Tried to get pics but my windows have water drops all over them and I'm not interested in going outside and getting zapped awake by the cold as I am on my way to bed.

 

I will post pics in the morning. Hopefully this keeps up. I don't want to look at the radar....

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I would give anything to be living where you are right now. Just remember what hell you could be going through.

Well yeah the lowlands are tough if you want snow when you look outside your window... But I'd gladly trade places with tim though, or even with just downtown or the town of North Bend(less snow but a more reasonable place to live). Frequent decent convergence zone snowfalls are almost guaranteed there in La Nina. If I could get a few days mostly WFH job it would be the most awesome place to live(seems like what tim is doing, he is posting pictures during work hours from around his house so i surmise he is not driving to Seattle that often). As a bonus its 30 minutes from the greatest ski hill in WA, Alpental. There are definitely a lot of aspects to consider when and if you get to choose where you live, and Missoula wouldn't make the shortlist if I had to live here long term, ie after grad school.

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Wow...went outside at 1215am and it was sleet/freezing rain (starting to accumulate)

 

Got buried in my computer then looked outside at 1255am and everything is completely white and it is DUMPING!!

 

Tried to get pics but my windows have water drops all over them and I'm not interested in going outside and getting zapped awake by the cold as I am on my way to bed.

 

I will post pics in the morning. Hopefully this keeps up. I don't want to look at the radar....

 

Looking forward to your pics! Take a measurement too we need to compare :) 

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Well yeah the lowlands are tough if you want snow when you look outside your window... But I'd gladly trade places with tim though, or even with just downtown or the town of North Bend(less snow but a more reasonable place to live). Frequent decent convergence zone snowfalls are almost guaranteed there in La Nina. If I could get a few days mostly WFH job it would be the most awesome place to live(seems like what tim is doing, he is posting pictures during work hours from around his house so i surmise he is not driving to Seattle that often). As a bonus its 30 minutes from the greatest ski hill in WA, Alpental. There are definitely a lot of aspects to consider when and if you get to choose where you live, and Missoula wouldn't make the shortlist if I had to live here long term, ie after grad school.

Good points.

 

I really want to live in Central WA, but my wife wants a bigger city. There are so few places in WA that have a truly enjoyable climate near a major population center. There is Spokane, but it doesn't really float my boat.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like maybe a hint of Fraser air here? Temperature dropped a degree in the last hour and very light breeze out of the ENE. Not expecting anything as I head to bed, but would be nice to be surprised with an inch.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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