December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

12z GFS back to looking a little more realistic with the low track, though.

Do I want to look?

[Deweydog]

Timing is bumped way up and Jim is back in the lead.

[BLI snowman]

Do I want to look?

Don't think so, no.

[Goducks09]

Whelp, 12z back on board with snow for Wednesday night.  Looking forward to to tonight's 00z it flipping back to 47 degree rain...

[Tyler Mode]

Looks like once this little low skirts south the cold air can move in more easily.

 

Isn't there more moisture up there than was forecast?

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?atx_ncr+/2h/

[Deweydog]

12z says the 00z Euro may have a good standing for a plagiarism suit.

[snow_wizard]

Dry cold for us.

[Bryant]

I chose a real good ******* time to move south of Bellingham

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z looks reasonable

[Weather101]

Seahawks fans ahahhahhahahhaha

[luvssnow_spokane]

Dry cold for us.

Jesse will be jealous...

[mountainman]

PM me pls

[luvssnow_spokane]

Seahawks fans ahahhahhahahhaha

Careful!! First we are getting screwed out of snow while we possibly have to watch Oregon get hammered AGAIN and then your comment is just salt in a wound. You might be bringing all out Thermo nuclear war...

[BLI snowman]

Late week airmass looks a lot better, hence the suppression. Still shows that little feature dropping south off the coast on Thursday.

[Bryant]

Careful!! First we are getting screwed out of snow while we possibly have to watch Oregon get hammered AGAIN and then your comment is just salt in a wound. You might be bringing all out Thermo nuclear war...

He's Canadian, what do you expect? They're as*holes

[luvssnow_spokane]

Splat test positively confirmed on my drive to work this morning

[Spuzzum]

He's Canadian, what do you expect? They're as*holes

 

Only an ******* says an entire country is full of a*******.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going to be a solid event seattle south to Salem. Watch..

[Perturbed Member]

12 NAM gives quite a bit of snow for PDX, similar track to last nights GEM.

 

 

12z GFS looks more like Euro/UKMET/NAVGEM in terms of low track but PDX doesn't get a ton of moisture. GFS caved in to the euro on timing too, snow at PDX around 4pm Wednesday.

[ShawniganLake]

Didn't get any snow overnight here, the precipitation stayed furter north. The outflow is rolling in now though, down to 32.5 with snow sticking to non-paved surfaces. I have a feeling getting enough precipitation will be our biggest problem now. This week could end up very similar to last week with an inch of snow turning to ice early on, if we're lucky (looking at the radar we probably won't even get that).

The heaviest band remained to my north too. Elevation helped me out some as the precip was lighter than modelled. 31F here currently.

 

My season total is at 15.5" now so I can't complain. At some point Victoria is going to score a big outflow event.

[snow_wizard]

I chose a real good ******* time to move south of Bellingham

I feel your pain dude. The fact that only areas in the path of direct outflow are getting snow really diminishes my hopes for snow here later today. That's the only real hope for this area for quite some time.

 

Don't know what to say.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[luvssnow_spokane]

Going to be a solid event seattle south to Salem. Watch..

You mean ... solid event Puyallup south to Salem ....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

With A Little Luck, We Can Help It Out

We Can Make This Whole D**n Thing Work Out

[snow_wizard]

Going to be a solid event seattle south to Salem. Watch..

I'm not seeing it. The cold is actually shaping up to be too powerful. This is why I'm not a fan of December blasts in general. Too many of them just don't deliver. See my post December vs January.

[snow_wizard]

Hope it doesn't keep trending south!

You're golden. I called it last night.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I feel your pain dude. The fact that only areas in the path of direct outflow are getting snow really diminishes my hopes for snow here later today. That's the only real hope for this area for quite some time.

 

Don't know what to say.

I will say it for you.... "we are screwed... again!"

[Perturbed Member]

NAVGEM

 

If nothing else, this thing has been pretty darn consistent. Latest run has trended north about 50 miles or so.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016121206/navgem_z500_mslp_us_14.png

[Bryant]

I feel your pain dude. The fact that only areas in the path of direct outflow are getting snow really diminishes my hopes for snow here later today. That's the only real hope for this area for quite some time.

 

Don't know what to say.

I don't even know why I get my hopes up anymore. I'm an idiot for thinking this location could deliver more potential than Bellingham. Already proven wrong multiple times

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You're golden. I called it last night.

Well I won't be here either way. Unless the weather messes up my flight

[snow_wizard]

The funny thing is Jesse is probably so convinced Portland is screwed that he isn't looking at the models today.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Going to be a solid event seattle south to Salem. Watch..

Nope

[snow_wizard]

Well I won't be here either way. Unless the weather messes up my flight

You sealed it right there.

[snow_wizard]

I don't even know why I get my hopes up anymore. I'm an idiot for thinking this location could deliver more potential than Bellingham. Already proven wrong multiple times

I think you had sound reasoning. Where I moved was a huge mistake. There are place less than 10 miles from here that get WAY more.

 

For your area I think you will do well in situations where the outflow winds are too powerful for the north county.

[Canadian guy]

The heaviest band remained to my north too. Elevation helped me out some as the precip was lighter than modelled. 31F here currently.

 

My season total is at 15.5" now so I can't complain. At some point Victoria is going to score a big outflow event.

 

Victoria is getting it pretty good right now.  Everything turning white.

[Bodhijr]

I feel snow_wizard pain. I have been contemplating moving to either Alaska, Idaho, or Montana so I could get my snow fix every year and not have so many let downs. Of course there is many factors that go into doing such a move. But every year here in sw washington with no snow makes to be a great motivator! By the way, isn't there some extra room in Canada that didn't get filled by all the people who promised to move there after the election. .. Hmmm

[MossMan]

The funny thing is Jesse is probably so convinced Portland is screwed that he isn't looking at the models today.

He was taking today off of the forum I think he said last night.

[snow_wizard]

I feel snow_wizard pain. I have been contemplating moving to either Alaska, Idaho, or Montana so I could get my snow fix every year and not have so many let downs. Of course there is many factors that go into doing such a move. But every year here in sw washington with no snow makes to be a great motivator! By the way, isn't there some extra room in Canada that didn't get filled by all the people who promised to move there after the election. .. Hmmm

Good point about Canada!

 

I have thought many times about Central WA or Western MT. Hopefully not too much longer before I can do it.

[Bryant]

I think you had sound reasoning. Where I moved was a huge mistake. There are place less than 10 miles from here that get WAY more.

 

For your area I think you will do well in situations where the outflow winds are too powerful for the north county.

I don't know your area well enough to comment. I lived in Maple Valley, but only for a year.

 

This year doesn't seem to be the type of year for strong outflow. Pretty common theme setting up so far

[snow_wizard]

He was taking today off of the forum I think he said last night.

Ironic.