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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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I don't know your area well enough to comment. I lived in Maple Valley, but only for a year.

 

This year doesn't seem to be the type of year for strong outflow. Pretty common theme setting up so far

I thought it was pretty strong last week. Not by real blast standards though I suppose. Our best hope is that this is just a warning shot and not the main event. The fact the NE appears to be the huge winner with the Vodka cold makes me think it's just a warning.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Good news..both the 00z EPS and 06z GFS/GEFS trended stronger with the scandinavia-eurasia ridge in the d11-15 range.

 

That will promote wave driving and inflict damage on the PV in the long run if it continues..and if the PV/NAM can weaken enough then the next round of NPAC wavebreaking/off-equator WPAC forcing will establish a stronger EPO/GOA block and maybe lead to something nice.

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Rod Hill on board with this one

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The heaviest band remained to my north too. Elevation helped me out some as the precip was lighter than modelled. 31F here currently.

 

My season total is at 15.5" now so I can't complain. At some point Victoria is going to score a big outflow event.

 

We've fallen below freezing now and it's dumping out. Not sure for how much longer but the roads and trees are covered. The extra bit of elevation seems to have helped here too this time around; if I were still in Oak Bay I'd probably be seeing no more than slush.

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I would say the Euro is somewhat different than the UKMET and NAVGEM in that it takes the low even further south and is fairly weak with it. 

 

 

The 00z NAM track seems to look pretty good as well. Further south than the GEM but stronger than the Euro and possibly heading a bit more north?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121200/namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

 

Yeah last night's 00z EURO was the most South. Looks like the 12z NAM and GEM look pretty similar. Models are starting to converge on a solution. The upcoming run of the 12z EURO will be telling.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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I thought it was pretty strong last week. Not by real blast standards though I suppose. Our best hope is that this is just a warning shot and not the main event. The fact the NE appears to be the huge winner with the Vodka cold makes me think it's just a warning.

Lol, it's definitely not your main event. I don't understand the freakouts in here..we're not even two weeks into December, the QBO/tropical connection hasn't matured yet, and the background state is weak/open to perturbation. Nothing is locked in, and you will stand to benefit from that.

 

Oh, and seriously you guys can have the "vodka cold" bulls**t..that vortex just squashes our snow chances. We'll need a Pacific jet and weak SE-ridge to get winter wx this yr.

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Quite a slug of moisture moving across the strait and it appears to eventually hit my work...if it holds together...could see some splattering from that!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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This morning he said that there was a good chance of seeing a "mix" of "wintry precipitation".  Did he sound more enthusiastic than that?

 

His current forecast on his website.

 

WEDNESDAY:  Becoming cloudy, a mix of evening snow and or ice is expected, as a potential winter storm begins.
 
THURSDAY:   Winter storm conditions with snow and or ice accumulating.
 
FRIDAY:  Freezing morning temps with wintry precipitation.  The afternoon may warm above freezing.
 

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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His current forecast on his website.

 

WEDNESDAY:  Becoming cloudy, a mix of evening snow and or ice is expected, as a potential winter storm begins.
 
THURSDAY:   Winter storm conditions with snow and or ice accumulating.
 
FRIDAY:  Freezing morning temps with wintry precipitation.  The afternoon may warm above freezing.
 

 

 

Thanks for posting!  He did nail last week's lackluster "storm", so this is encouraging.  It's going to be all about that low placement and strength...

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Rod Hill

 

15390830_1214267588619528_74067196341567

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z GFS also trending stronger with the Scandinavia/Eurasia ridge. Good sign..keeps the PV weaker which allow the NPAC anticyclonic wavetrain to amplify somewhat farther poleward.

 

If this trend continues on guidance, then those epic looking runs will start showing up again.

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12z GFS also trending stronger with the Scandinavia/Eurasia ridge. Good sign..keeps the PV weaker which allow the NPAC anticyclonic wavetrain to amplify somewhat farther poleward.

 

 

Way better in the long term through Christmas.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We've fallen below freezing now and it's dumping out. Not sure for how much longer but the roads and trees are covered. The extra bit of elevation seems to have helped here too this time around; if I were still in Oak Bay I'd probably be seeing no more than slush.

Well the radar is not totally representative of what's happening to your west.  Radar is totally void over Shawnigan Lake currently and its snowing as hard as it has all morning.  Probably low level outflow snow falling below the radar beam.  I have seen several inches fall here when the radar shows nothing in the past. 

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Way better in the long term through Christmas.

 

 

Keeps things chilly with N/NW flow throughout. Dialing back on the 2-3 AR it had been showing into W. Oregon for early next week.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Way better in the long term through Christmas.

Drew this up last night. Where I have the red circle..more ridging there is the trend on the GFS/GEFS suite which keeps the PV in check via poleward WAFz and allows the NPAC to exert itself a bit more.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/450A0109-E732-4EC0-A8E7-E92C1AD2653E_zpslr9kbmit.jpeg

It could (should) also be argued that the eastward shift in the forecasted tropical convection (closer to 150E) also assists via a bettering of the longitude of the NPAC WAFs/breakers and assists in building that Eurasian ridge hence the weaker PV and stronger -EPO.

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The updated run of the 12z UKMET looks good. Lots of snow then colder air filters in. I love the 25-30 mm precip show up just North of the L. 25 mm is equivalent to roughly 1". 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_072_0850.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/TS_TS_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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Yeah, the GFS has a bunch of off-equator WPAC forcing that really helps both the EPO/NPAC state directly and boosts the Eurasian ridge which disrupts the base of the PV allowing the NPAC wavetrain to ride even farther poleward. Much different than the death sentence which is 120E forcing.

 

If this verifies, the hiatus won't last nearly as long.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121212/gfs_chi200_global_24.png

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12z GFS also trending stronger with the Scandinavia/Eurasia ridge. Good sign..keeps the PV weaker which allow the NPAC anticyclonic wavetrain to amplify somewhat farther poleward.

 

If this trend continues on guidance, then those epic looking runs will start showing up again.

Only to disappear 3 to 4 days before occurring.. Rinse, Repeat...

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Only to disappear 3 to 4 days before occurring.. Rinse, Repeat...

Yeah it's tough this year with the background state so weak..lots of model chaos and pattern swings through the winter are almost a certainty. However, this dynamic actually renders the "winter cancel" talk a laughable, unsubstantiated mistake. There's nothing to suggest you guys are anywhere close to being "finished".

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0 degrees out this AM... 

 

The coffee is good right now while I wait for my truck to warm up.

 

Got my second to last final today. One more tomorrow...

 

Bring it on!

 

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"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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<_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_unsure.png" alt=":unsure:">  :wacko:  :blink:  :wub:  :P  :mellow:  <_ ... that says it all...>

The low will be in the sweet spot for all of us in western Wa...like I said last night...we are going to get buried!!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Yeah it's tough this year with the background state so weak..lots of model chaos and pattern swings through the winter are almost a certainty. However, this dynamic actually renders the "winter cancel" talk a laughable, unsubstantiated mistake. There's nothing to suggest you guys are anywhere close to being "finished".

Nor does it say it will "actually" deliver more than warning scatter shots... Based on our status quo climo based outcomes I am just being uber critical but I am not saying "winter cancel". 

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