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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Hope you are right. This is two weeks of wasted cold already. I'll be sad if we transition Sunday into warm rain.  I think it is safe to say that we won't see any dusting even in King County tonight. That band is falling apart as it reaches Pierce County. 

 

How much longer can luck be on our side? =(

 

I'm fully prepared for Sunday to bust.

 

For whatever reason our area performs way better with cold snaps in the late Dec to early Feb time frame than ones in early to mid December.  There are many examples of dry cold spells this time of year. ...you have to look no further than 2013.  Starting the week between Chistmas and New Years the success percentage goes WAY up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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Snowing lightly here in BG.  Absolutely screwed in the snow department when compared to points north, east, south and west.  1/2" maybe.

 

Did enjoy all of the blowing snow on my 2.5 hour drive home, which compared to others was apparently pretty short.

Yah kinda sucks but your half inch is more than we received here. Really quite pathetic!

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Hope you are right. This is two weeks of wasted cold already. I'll be sad if we transition Sunday into warm rain.  I think it is safe to say that we won't see any dusting even in King County tonight. That band is falling apart as it reaches Pierce County. 

 

How much longer can luck be on our side? =(

 

It is going to be a cold winter IMO. I think you will get your share. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It does, looks like a more ideal pattern for my location too...

 

Did you see the CFS today?! WOW!

 

The CFS has been on fire lately.  A good 1/2 of the runs showing cold late Dec through mid Jan at least.

 

To put things in perspective 1949-50 and 1968-69 had little snow in Seattle through this point.  Something to think about.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Me too... thank you... Just a big tease a total waist.

This whole warning shot is old.

 

We've had plenty of cold. Plenty of moisture. Getting them married up hasn't worked out so well.

 

This type of cold doesn't usually stick around all winter.

 

Bring on spring and bulbs popping up.

 

Cherry blossoms anyone? Tim?

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Still looking like lots of potential for week 2.  It's a pretty big deal when you consider how much cold weather we have already had.  As I have said a million times the snow situation will even itself out.  Always has...always will.

I will not be surprised if you still be looking for potential after that... Because all the "potential" we will probably see is 5 days out more.

NOW I am waiting for SOMEONE to smoke a Pine Cone!!!!! 

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Deformation band is trying to setup right along PDX and points north it would seem currently... Pretty light stuff so far.

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 56.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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It is going to be a cold winter IMO. I think you will get your share. 

 

Yup...recurring GOA ridge appears to be on tap.  We were warned of this in the mid June through early Oct period.

 

If this winter does indeed turn out to be big, I think I really stumbled onto some good forecast tools this year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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This whole warning shot s**t is old.

 

We've had plenty of cold. Plenty of moisture. Getting them married up hasn't worked out so well.

 

This type of cold doesn't usually stick around all winter.

 

Bring on spring and bulbs popping up.

 

Cherry blossoms anyone? Tim?

Amen.. Preach Preacha!! 

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I will not be surprised if you still be looking for potential after that... Because all the "potential" we will probably see is 5 days out more.

NOW I am waiting for SOMEONE to smoke a Pine Cone!!!!! 

 

Obviously you're just not going to listen to reason right now.  I don't really blame you quite frankly.

 

Rest assured though cold snaps during this time frame are often dry for us.  Late Dec is when things really turn in that regard.  Do you really think NW OR will continue to get snow every time when we don't?  Not going to happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Still looking like lots of potential for week 2. It's a pretty big deal when you consider how much cold weather we have already had. As I have said a million times the snow situation will even itself out. Always has...always will.

Definitely something I have noticed in many years with multiple snow chances.

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The CFS has been on fire lately. A good 1/2 of the runs showing cold late Dec through mid Jan at least.

 

To put things in perspective 1949-50 and 1968-69 had little snow in Seattle through this point. Something to think about.

At my location observed weather has closely followed November and December 1949 this far...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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See now why I throw an utter hissy fit and get over things?  It's either that or piss and moan for days.  I saw this bust a few days ago and I reacted.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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At my location observed weather has closely followed November and December 1949 this far...

 

That is a great point.  A lot of similarity.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Obviously you're just not going to listen to reason right now.  I don't really blame you quite frankly.

 

Rest assured though cold snaps during this time frame are often dry for us.  Late Dec is when things really turn in that regard.  Do you really think NW OR will continue to get snow every time when we don't?  Not going to happen.

Correct, I am feeling beyond irrational even looking at the mid to long range as every snow chance just gets pulled away. Cold pattern will not last forever and an overrunning snow to rain event is not going to cut it as that is even worse than 35 degree rain. IMHO>... AND yes Oregon will continue to get more snow as we watch. ;)  AND yes I am psychic.  ;)

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Yeah, most of the criticism we get around here for not being able to deal with snow is pretty unfair IMO.

 

1. Hardly any US cities as hilly as Seattle and Portland get snow. At a certain point gravity simply overpowers the lack of friction and there's nothing you can do.

2. Our snow almost always falls near freezing which makes it almost always super slick.

3. We get snow often enough to pose significant problems every year or two, but not often enough to make it worth investing in adequate plows, sanders, and other snow removal equipment.

 

It's kind of the perfect storm around here for snow to really mess things up. Our drivers not being used to driving in the snow surely doesn't help, but it is far from the main factor.

The bolded makes no sense to me. Wet, slushy snow isn't any more "slick" than dry snow, and if anything warmer pavement temperatures prevent black ice formation, etc. I also disagree with #1, to some extent.

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The bolded makes no sense to me. Wet, slushy snow isn't any more "slick" than dry snow, and if anything warmer pavement temperatures prevent black ice formation, etc. I also disagree with #1, to some extent.

 

Um what major US city is hilly compared to Seattle and Portland that gets snow? I've lived back east, and I can't name a major city with hills. All this hype about Portland and Seattle drivers is mostly just that.

 

Hype. 

 

Edit: Chicago, NYC, Minneapolis, Boston, Iowa City, Detroit. Etc. etc... those are all flat cities.  

 

Not only is Seattle hilly, you have to cross multiple bridges just to get into the city itself. Most of the population of Seattle lives on the surrounding hills. 

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See now why I throw an utter hissy fit and get over things?  It's either that or piss and moan for days.  I saw this bust a few days ago and I reacted.

 

 

Yes... makes perfect sense now.     :rolleyes:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The bolded makes no sense to me. Wet, slushy snow isn't any more "slick" than dry snow, and if anything warmer pavement temperatures prevent black ice formation, etc. I also disagree with #1, to some extent.

Slushy snow that partially melts and then refreezes is much slicker than dry snow. Not even close.

 

Ice only forms on roads if the snow partially melts. If it snows at 15-20 degrees, there won't be hardly any ice on the roads.

 

What cities come to mind? I know Pittsburgh is pretty hilly, but other than that I can't think of many hilly cities that get snow.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Yeah, most dangerous road conditions I encounter occur when slush from melted snow on the pavement (whether due to chemicals and melting agents or sunlight) re-freezes hard overnight. Once temperatures drop into the teens, many of the chemicals used to treat the roads begin to fail. There've been a few times I've lost total control of my vehicle at under 10mph.

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Um what major US city is hilly compared to Seattle and Portland that gets snow? I've lived back east, and I can't name a major city with hills. All this hype about Portland and Seattle drivers is mostly just that.

 

Hype. 

 

Edit: Chicago, NYC, Minneapolis, Boston, Iowa City, Detroit. Etc. etc... those are all flat cities. 

 

Indeed.  I will never forget one night I was at the Seattle Center in Feb 1989.  The roads were covered with ice and the most out of control vehicle I saw going down a small hill had Montana plates.

 

Just a side note about that event...the fountains at the Science Center were freeking surreal with the ice around them.  True winter that time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just in case anyone else is wondering too, I looked up what the winter of 1949/50 was like (after some mentioned it) and found this great article by Scott Sistek. The pictures are no longer posted but he goes into pretty good detail.

 

It would be insane if we had a January like 1950. Probably can't happen in today's climate but still, that would be awesome.

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/a-look-back-at-the-epic-blizzards-of-1950-12-20-2015

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This whole warning shot s**t is old.

 

We've had plenty of cold. Plenty of moisture. Getting them married up hasn't worked out so well.

 

This type of cold doesn't usually stick around all winter.

 

Bring on spring and bulbs popping up.

 

Cherry blossoms anyone? Tim?

Couldn't agree more. I think most of us are sick of transition snow that starts melting at 7am the next day. Only so many chances...

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Steady stream of moisture on the radar still extends to the coast.  Something should fall here before it's done.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I like how it gets made that there is some Zen-like skill involved in wintry driving.  Yes, experience counts, but we're talking about vehicle dynamics and coefficient of friction.  If you can't get traction, you're not going anywhere whether you're in Atlanta, Portland or Minneapolis.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Couldn't agree more. I think most of us are sick of transition snow that starts melting at 7am the next day. Only so many chances...

 

We will have a lot of chances this winter.  This one is different.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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A lot of ensemble members dip into the -7 to -8 range during the final quarter of December. Pretty solid.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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People do freak out in the snow though. It was starting to flurry on I205 today when I was on my way to the airport and people suddenly forgot how to drive. Also driving in the city is tougher in snow, less room for error. My Subaru does great in snow, but last Monday I pulled off Silver Falls Hwy onto my road a little fast and went in sideways, it wasn't a big deal I straightened out immediately but in the city I would have probably hit another car... Of course I would have been much more careful had other cars been around I hope but you get the point.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Slushy snow that partially melts and then refreezes is much slicker than dry snow. Not even close.

I agree slushy snow that melts and re-freezes is much more slippery, but that often has nothing to do with your temperature being right at 32 degrees when the snow falls. You have to factor in pavement temperature, insolation, chemicals used, etc. Many roads in many places will have slushy snow on them even with air temps in the mid-20s.

 

Ice only forms on roads if the snow partially melts. If it snows at 15-20 degrees, there won't be hardly any ice on the roads.

I disagree. There are melting agents applied here that melt snow with temperatures in the low 20s, even upper-teens if there's some solar radiation. I don't know what stuff you guys use, but if it can't melt snow in the low/mid 20s that's ridiculous.

 

What cities come to mind? I know Pittsburgh is pretty hilly, but other than that I can't think of many hilly cities that get snow.

I guess that depends what your definition of hilly is. Even my city has hills that regularly rise/fall 100-500ft all over the place, some very steep including a few in my area.

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I like how it gets made that there is some Zen-like skill involved in wintry driving. Yes, experience counts, but we're talking about vehicle dynamics and coefficient of friction. If you can't get traction, you're not going anywhere whether you're in Atlanta, Portland or Minneapolis.

Most of the time it just comes down to going too fast for the conditions, or attempting a road/hill your vehicle is not equipped to handle.

Low. Solar.

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Shits falling out of the clouds but it's not making it to the ground.

What the actual F? That would clearly explain why so many times I seen snow on the radar over my house in Spanahood yet there was nothing falling.

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Really good analogs to the GFS at day 11. A few early January ones thrown in also. Really looks promising.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Um what major US city is hilly compared to Seattle and Portland that gets snow? I've lived back east, and I can't name a major city with hills. All this hype about Portland and Seattle drivers is mostly just that.

 

Hype.

 

Edit: Chicago, NYC, Minneapolis, Boston, Iowa City, Detroit. Etc. etc... those are all flat cities.

 

Not only is Seattle hilly, you have to cross multiple bridges just to get into the city itself. Most of the population of Seattle lives on the surrounding hills.

Boston is a flat city?

 

Lol you just proved you're talking right out of your a**. I've driven through MA/CT..it's ridiculously hilly.

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Worst kind of road setup IMO is where temperatures have been above freezing, then they fall into the mid 20's or lower...snow falls at a good clip and partially melts on the roads, then over a short period of time, freezes hard....no one can drive on snow that has partially melted and refrozen into a hard, icy crust.

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What a day! Officially got 4" at my location here in Gresham at about 500 feet. Was busy sledding and enjoying the snow all afternoon and evening. I'm happy and very satisfied with what I got and it won't melt anytime soon. This is what it's all about!

I am super happy for you!!! :)

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Really good analogs to the GFS at day 11. A few early January ones thrown in also. Really looks promising.

Regardless of what has been said about the warning shot deal.....you called it. I mean it is what it is. So far so good. Each event thus far has been successively better than the last it seems. Just saying....

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What a day! Officially got 4" at my location here in Gresham at about 500 feet. Was busy sledding and enjoying the snow all afternoon and evening. I'm happy and very satisfied with what I got and it won't melt anytime soon. This is what it's all about!

 

Definitely jealous but good for you. Sounds like a wonderful evening.

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Most of the time it just comes down to going too fast for the conditions, or attempting a road/hill your vehicle is not equipped to handle.

 

Definitely.  And around here it just isn't built into people's everyday bubble of contingencies.  That goes for public infrastructure too.  2008 showed very effectively just how useless the snow removal efforts in the Portland/Vancouver area are when we see something beyond a short-term event.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Nope was far worse for wa.

It certain locations. By in large it was better IMO. I am actually bummed for those who didn't score. I know how it feels. I have stuck my middle finger to the sky plenty of times during my tenure west of the cascades. 

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Really good analogs to the GFS at day 11. A few early January ones thrown in also. Really looks promising.

I am kind of liking that 2nd week of January for something big

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Snow has begun in Olympia.  Still a steady plume of moisture streaming in.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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