December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 240 looks nice. 

 

The midweek storm on the EURO looks good. 3" EUG and Salem, 8-9" PDX.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a wildcard for King County this evening. Strong indication for convergence and legit cold air has made it to NW Snohomish County now.

[HighlandExperience]

Watch...we are going to be white cold and snowy leading up to Christmas...then we will end up on the warm sector of a AR and wash away even the mountain snow on Christmas Eve..."I'm dreaming of a Swampy Christmas...Just like the ones PuyallupJon used to know"

 

The mountain snowpack is solid right now. Not too worried about that.

[Perturbed Member]

I love the 12z model runs for PDX of course, I think things will trend a bit further north but I hope they don't go too far north so as to threaten PDX with WAA. Really hope enough precip makes it up north to get SEA 2-4 inches as well, my gut feeling is that SEA does better than modeled so far. Will be more fun if we can just get everyone in on the fun.

[HighlandExperience]

The screw hole is SW of normal. This is total for Wednesday and the weekend. Way better than nothing.

 

Like you stated earlier. A 50 mile jog north would make a big difference for us. I am encouraged that the EURO is slightly further north. I expect it too keep doing so over the next several runs. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like my chances of smoking  pine cone have decreased.

[MossMan]

You know...it is so odd how often that happens. Even 1968-69 and 1949-50 missed a White Christmas event though they had snow before and after. 1968 was ridiculous on how bad the timing was.

Even 1998 I remember it snowed Christmas Eve night but it turned to slop quickly for Christmas morning? I can't remember for sure but I remember the timing being so close but so awful. It would be lovely to have another Christmas 1990 or 2008...heavy snow falling right on Christmas morning...so magical!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does show a little bit of lowland snow on 12/22 on day 10.

 

White Christmas is possible!  

[snow_wizard]

12Z ECMWF does show a little bit of lowland snow on 12/22 on day 10.

 

White Christmas is possible!

The pattern at day 10 has reload written all over it. Strong surface high over the NW GOA about to merge with the one off the CA coast. Classic signature. I'm shocked to see model trends indicating the cold could keep going.

[ningit]

Today/last night has been great for Bellingham. I got about 2.5" where I live near WWU, five times more than I saw the last two winters combined (which were the first two I've been here. I've been really unlucky). Very cool to see the effects of Fraser outflow in person, although there weren't any strong winds or anything where I'm at. It's still snowing lightly. Really hoping that other people score in the midweek system, we're all overdue for a nice event.

[seattleweatherguy]

Keep it moving north

[Skagit Weather]

 

The Sunday snow totals actually don't look that different WRF as compared to the Euro. I would definitely be happy with this.

 

[Goducks09]

The silence from Mark Nelsen on Twitter and his blog is deafening.  I wonder if he will wait for the 00z runs tonight before chiming in.  Probably a safe bet for him considering he went all-in last week right before having to reset expectations last minute.

[MossMan]

Menstrual Monday has been quite cheery so far! Mood swings will probably happen right after the 18z comes out though. 

[Heavy Snow]

I love the 12z model runs for PDX of course, I think things will trend a bit further north but I hope they don't go too far north so as to threaten PDX with WAA. Really hope enough precip makes it up north to get SEA 2-4 inches as well, my gut feeling is that SEA does better than modeled so far. Will be more fun if we can just get everyone in on the fun.

 

Yeah, the L can trend a little more North to give us even more Snow and also areas further North. This is reminding me of February 19 1993 all over again but with no immediate warm-up afterwards because the snow will stay on the floor and more snow chances over the weekend.

[Deweydog]

Menstrual Monday has been quite cheery so far! Mood swings will probably happen right after the 18z comes out though.

Give it time...

[MossMan]

Give it time...

Like clockwork.

[seattleweatherguy]

Menstrual Monday has been quite cheery so far! Mood swings will probably happen right after the 18z comes out though.

Menstrual Monday ha

[Bryant]

Can anyone tell me what the BLI gradiet was this morning around 9am? And what it was last night around 9pm? Not sure how to access them

[luvssnow_spokane]

The pattern at day 10 has reload written all over it. Strong surface high over the NW GOA about to merge with the one off the CA coast. Classic signature. I'm shocked to see model trends indicating the cold could keep going.

Please note: I pointed this out last night also... JUST FYI.

[Prairiedog]

I love the 12z model runs for PDX of course, I think things will trend a bit further north but I hope they don't go too far north so as to threaten PDX with WAA. Really hope enough precip makes it up north to get SEA 2-4 inches as well, my gut feeling is that SEA does better than modeled so far. Will be more fun if we can just get everyone in on the fun.

More times than not it seems the low does trend north but models SEEM to be holding firm.  Weatherbell shows it moving into Central Or.  It could happen!  This will be very interesting to watch.  I hope next year we can say, "You all remember when that low tracked perfectly south of Portland into Central Or. ?"  So how can we get our Washington friends into the action without sacrificing us?  Hope everyone gets some snow. Every Snowflake Matters.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Keep it moving north

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[luvssnow_spokane]

I am now deeming this "Momentum Monday"... 

[Prairiedog]

We got married in Leavenworth over Christmas 5 years ago then went up to Mountain Home Lodge (1,000ft above the valley) for our honeymoon.  9" of snow fell.  Took everyone on a sleigh ride at Redtail Canyon Farm.  Nothing is more beautiful than Leavenworth in the snow at Christmas time.  Magical place. 

[Bodhijr]

Something frozen will fall! More to come...

http://www.kptv.com/link/492613/fox-12-weather-blog

[Timmy]

i now manage a moorage on the lower columbia, apparently they are very susceptible to snow. I think snow is gonna be a bigger pain in the butt going into the future for me... the old owners just called freaking out about possible snow coming up, you know, to inform me.  I probably sounded smug "Im kind of a huge weather nerd, I know its possibly coming..."

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hopefully it's not going to be called pine cone thursday..

[Heavy Snow]

12z EURO temperatures for PDX from Wed to Sun. Total of 11"-12" widespread Snow for PDX Metro by Monday 4am.

 

Wed: 32/31

Thu: 33/27

Fri: 32/22

Sat: 30/15

Sun: 33/21

[Skagit Weather]

Still holding steady at 34 here, but I guess it doesn't matter too much as the precip has disappeared.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hopefully it's not going to be called pine cone thursday..

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[SilverFallsAndrew]

I love where the EURO is going at day 10, there is some GFS and ensemble for that support too. I also think the system midweek is more like 1/1/04 than 2/19/93. We'll see I would not be surprised if places south of Salem started off as rain and then transitioned back to a period of heavy snow once the low pulls away to the E. That happened with both those events. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Stronger N to NE winds really showing up along with penetrating cold air getting down to Mt Vernon... Nice to see!

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

More times than not it seems the low does trend north but models SEEM to be holding firm.  Weatherbell shows it moving into Central Or.  It could happen!  This will be very interesting to watch.  I hope next year we can say, "You all remember when that low tracked perfectly south of Portland into Central Or. ?"  So how can we get our Washington friends into the action without sacrificing us?  Hope everyone gets some snow. Every Snowflake Matters.

 

 

Feb 2014 the models showed the low going way south of PDX and while they did trend a bit north, they were largely steady and all 3 different lows went south of PDX so I know they certainly don't always trend way north. 

The latest Euro, NAVGEM, UKMET are all a bit further north than their 00z runs though but still very good tracks for our area.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Even 1998 I remember it snowed Christmas Eve night but it turned to slop quickly for Christmas morning? I can't remember for sure but I remember the timing being so close but so awful. It would be lovely to have another Christmas 1990 or 2008...heavy snow falling right on Christmas morning...so magical!

I definitely remember that 1998 Christmas eve snow.  We took our new born son home from the hospital on late afternoon Christmas eve 1998.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah, the L can trend a little more North to give us even more Snow and also areas further North. This is reminding me of February 19 1993 all over again but with no immediate warm-up afterwards because the snow will stay on the floor and more snow chances over the weekend.

 

 

Yep, we are certainly in a good position for now but we still have a bit more 48 hours to go and the models never cease to amaze in their ability to f*ck you over even in the last second so we never can get too comfortable. 

 

Mark Nelsen posted something new on this blog which basically amounted to: "You might just get flurries or you might get a foot of snow, we will wait and see". He's going to wait for the 00z runs Tuesday night before he gives his real final forecast. Smart guy.

[Heavy Snow]

The Columbia River Gorge is going to be nice and cold for us next week. 12z EURO temps for The Dalles Tue to Mon.

 

Tues: 30/24

Wed: 22/18

Thu: 25/19

Fri: 23/14

Sat: 13/7

Sun: 20/11

Mon: 24/12

[dairyd]

Can anyone tell me what the BLI gradiet was this morning around 9am? And what it was last night around 9pm? Not sure how to access them

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=cywl+kbli

 

About -13 last night. Has narrowed a bit since

[Heavy Snow]

Yep, we are certainly in a good position for now but we still have a bit more 48 hours to go and the models never cease to amaze in their ability to f*ck you over even in the last second so we never can get too comfortable. 

 

Mark Nelsen posted something new on this blog which basically amounted to: "You might just get flurries or you might get a foot of snow, we will wait and see". He's going to wait for the 00z runs Tuesday night before he gives his real final forecast. Smart guy.

 

Yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic at the moment. It's going to be an intense next 48 hours. This is what we live for.

[Jesse]

Checking in from our Columbia Gorge snow recon. In Hood River currently. There seems to be anywhere from 6-12" on the ground from Multnomah Falls eastward, with little melting going on today. Should bode well for cold east gradients returning tomorrow.

 

Glad to see the low has trended or remained further south on the models too, based on discussion here. Cautiously optimistic!!

[Jesse]

The Columbia River Gorge is going to be nice and cold for us next week. 12z EURO temps for The Dalles Tue to Mon.

 

Tues: 30/24

Wed: 22/18

Thu: 25/19

Fri: 23/14

Sat: 13/7

Sun: 20/11

Mon: 24/12

Very nice.