12/10-12/12 Plains/Midwest/Lakes Weekend Snowstorm

[Tom]

When does this get sampled?

It's already getting good sampling coming on shore. RPM looks similar to the NAM. The band pivots right over N IL and never stops snowing here and in S WI.

[gosaints]

Wave currently offshore...

[Tom]

Wave currently offshore...

Close enough that balloon network and aircraft picking up on it. Skilling even said it was beginning to come on shore, at least some of the energy. 12z tomorrow full sampling will be done.

[gosaints]

Close enough that balloon network and aircraft picking up on it. Skilling even said it was beginning to come on shore, at least some of the energy. 12z tomorrow full sampling will be done.

Totally agree. Still interesting that the driving mechanism for the storm is so far away and we are within 18 hours or so of storm time

[hlcater]

another one to the north. ugh.

 

hard not to be extremely nervous

[Money]

GGEM looks drier and weaker

[gosaints]

GGEM looks drier and weaker

Qpf ticking down storm wide on the globals.at least

[Tom]

Inside 24-48 hours go with high rez??

[gosaints]

Inside 24-48 hours go with high rez??

I would for sure if the wave wasnt still on the shores of british columbia. The Euro gives me pause as well.

[East Dubzz]

This storm is going to be in my area by early afternoon tomorrow, so models need to figure this out soon.

[Tom]

00z GFS...fwiw, NAM/RPM nearly identical and place heaviest axis over N IL/SE WI/S MI...ORD at 9.4"

[Tom]

I think RPM had around 9" for MKE area also...

[Madtown]

Lol models haven't pinned a track in 2 years I feel like. Thinking 8" here at most, which really is where this whole thing started, it was never gonna be monster.

[Tom]

Lol models haven't pinned a track in 2 years I feel like. Thinking 8" here at most, which really is where this whole thing started, it was never gonna be monster.

Anything above 5" is a winner. If you think about it, we are really only about a week into true Winter weather.  We have a long way to go!

[chances14]

ggem and gfs were actually a slight improvement for southern michigan

[Tom]

ggem and gfs were actually a slight improvement for southern michigan

RPM model looked good as well.

[james1976]

Snow breaking out in NE.....

[East Dubzz]

Not feeling super optimistic about this event, but hope things change for the better tomorrow.

[Money]

Both GFS and nam look similar to their 0z runs except maybe a bit more snow

[westMJim]

I am up early today as I have to go into work early. Getting a moderate snow shower at this time. Have 2.5” of new snow overnight. Now have a total of 7.75” on the ground. The snow this morning is very light and fluffy with nice big size flakes. The temperature here is now 21°

[East Dubzz]

Hoping for a solid 4" out of this system.

[Madtown]

Still liking 8" here. Let's get the show on the road

[bud2380]

HRRR has shifted heavy snow band in Iowa down to i80 corridor

[Grizzcoat]

HRRR has shifted heavy snow band in Iowa down to i80 corridor

Been watching that. HRRR did horrible last time around,, but the RAP is showing the same thing.

***Edit*** it seems to ever so slowly be adjusting back N again. Anything past HR 7 or 8 on the HRRR, I don't trust.

[gosaints]

Been watching that. HRRR did horrible last time around,, but the RAP is showing the same thing.

Ive take myself off the the rap/hrrr this winter. Not worth the pain. They are 50%ers

[Grizzcoat]

I do like seeing the trends coming off OMA radar and that it's in precip mode....

[WBadgersW]

Bit surprised MKX didn't go with a WWA yet. I guess they're making sure there won't be any upticks in qpf.

[Tom]

LOT still thinking 6-10" for N IL...

 

[Madtown]

Suprised by the OMA radar this morning!

[Trinomial]

Tom, I believe LOTs latest take is 5 to 10 in the Orange based on their post this morning. Couldn't post the graphic though...sorry!

[Tom]

12z NAM with a little more love in N IL...12-14" in spots...still snowing in MI...will post maps when they load

[Tom]

RPM/NAM looking very similar for the local area...

 

 

[gosaints]

Pretty good spread the wealth. Hope it works out for all.

[Tom]

Pretty good spread the wealth. Hope it works out for all.

It's looking likely that a majority of us north of I-80 (except for NE), will have a nice fresh snow pack. 

[Tom]

Hey Grizz, let us know how that initial band about to go through DSM looks like.  Some embedded 30dbz rates I see.

[gosaints]

Hey Grizz, let us know how that initial band about to go through DSM looks like. Some embedded 30dbz rates I see.

Should have a decent growth zone to work with at onset

[gosaints]

Nice uptick from 4km

[BrianJK]

One thing I don't like about this weekends system is how we go from dry powdery snow to wetter heavier snow. That 6-10 may end up looking more like 3-6 after it all compacts down.

[Trinomial]

Sorry for the questions... Does anyone know if Instant weather weather snow maps are statistically better than pivotal? Just curious. Thanks!

[Tom]

12z NAM-4km...SW/S MI has a big increase in precip...better phasing???  Looks like the SLP starts to ramp up as it heads into N MI.  Odd to see it snow SE of the low, but I guess this may be the type of season where we see the cold "winning"....I like the sound of that...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016121012/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_16.png