Jump to content

12/10-12/12 Plains/Midwest/Lakes Weekend Snowstorm


Tom

Recommended Posts

Just put my finishing touches on my Christmas lights/decor. While I was doing that, I can't help but admire the anticipation of an approaching Winter Storm. The cloud deck is lowering, calm winds, frozen ground and I picked/raked some leaves on the yard. Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some very interesting maps that Skilling posted regarding the storm.  N IL/N IN/S MI may be in line for a pretty narly snow storm.

 

 

 

 

 

This is a spectacular representation of the storm's vertical motion field and of its "dendritic growth zone". Boiled down to basics, the -12 and -18-degree Celsius temp zone is where snowflake formation is most prolific (the numbers on the left side of this graphic) indicate pressure levels--which is a nice way of saying, they show us the height in the atmosphere. 850, for instance, refers to 850 mb which occurs around 5,000 ft above sea level; 700 mb refers to 10,000ft.; 500mb to 18,000ft; 300 mb to 30,000 ft. and so forth. That the strongest lift (indicated by the green shading) brings moisture aloft into the dendritic growth zone (the area between the -12 and -18-degree isotherms) means snow formation will be ongoing with vigor over an extended period in this storm. The actual times are indicated at the bottom of this graphic.

15380422_10154673075541760_5831510216528

 

 

 

15326581_10154673022196760_4008216208174

 

15420815_10154672933986760_1716374280083

 

 

 

10:1 snow ratios NAM-WRF model...

 

15356679_10154672927441760_1694805352279

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Skilling....

 

 

Now the fun part. Looking at just how nature's putting our big snow together. Caution: If you're not into the technical details, you can skip this one. But for my fellow weather nerds, this is fascinating stuff--and the snow which is coming together has, in many respects, a textbook look to it. To produce a big snow, cold temps, a generous flow of incoming moisture and the means to lift and cool this moisture are essential--and they're all present! We've also gained quite an insight over the years into the physics of snowflake formation--what are referred to as "dendrite" formation prospects and efficiency. Just how snowflakes form and their fluffiness is critical in how much snow accumulates. Fluffy snowflakes generate more volume and therefore higher accumulations. You often hear 1" of water produces 10" of snow. That's the 10 to 1 snow/water ratio you hear referred to so frequently. But that's just an average. Snows which occur in colder temps are fluffier. You can therefore end up with more the 10" of snow from an inch of water in colder snows--and the current situation is in that league. We may end up with the equivalent to as much as 12 to 14--possibly evening 15" of snow per inch out of this snowstorm. Here's the graphic we put together laying out the atmospheric set-up with this storm at work to produce the snow which is on the way in simplified form for our Chicago Tribune weather page and our Chicago Weather Center blog post. It depicts the role of the jet stream in making this happen. We're sitting beneath right flank entry region of a jet stream wind speed. As air parcels accelerate into that wind max, mass is removed at jet stream level encouraging air to rise on a massive scale. You can see the low level flow into the area in another of the accompanying maps. Additional lift is generated as the incoming "warm", moist air glides up the dome of cold air in which we're situated. And check out the moisture this system has available to it--more than 0.6" of evaporated water flooding in from the south. There marriage of all these elements underpin the development of generous snows! But here's the kicker. All this moisture is being lifted into at atmosphere built for snowflake formation. Our models offer us a calculation of what's called the "dendritic growth zone"--the so-called DGZ. Sounds complicated--but it's actually the region above us which is best suited for snowflake formation. And when that zone of temps (-12 to -18-degrees Celsius) occurs in the region of maximum lift (i.e. vertical velocity) in a storm--wall-ah!! Snow forms and flutters to earth. And there you have it--a summary of the meteorological elements at work to produce this weekend's snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Skilling....

 

 

Now the fun part. Looking at just how nature's putting our big snow together. Caution: If you're not into the technical details, you can skip this one. But for my fellow weather nerds, this is fascinating stuff--and the snow which is coming together has, in many respects, a textbook look to it. To produce a big snow, cold temps, a generous flow of incoming moisture and the means to lift and cool this moisture are essential--and they're all present! We've also gained quite an insight over the years into the physics of snowflake formation--what are referred to as "dendrite" formation prospects and efficiency. Just how snowflakes form and their fluffiness is critical in how much snow accumulates. Fluffy snowflakes generate more volume and therefore higher accumulations. You often hear 1" of water produces 10" of snow. That's the 10 to 1 snow/water ratio you hear referred to so frequently. But that's just an average. Snows which occur in colder temps are fluffier. You can therefore end up with more the 10" of snow from an inch of water in colder snows--and the current situation is in that league. We may end up with the equivalent to as much as 12 to 14--possibly evening 15" of snow per inch out of this snowstorm. Here's the graphic we put together laying out the atmospheric set-up with this storm at work to produce the snow which is on the way in simplified form for our Chicago Tribune weather page and our Chicago Weather Center blog post. It depicts the role of the jet stream in making this happen. We're sitting beneath right flank entry region of a jet stream wind speed. As air parcels accelerate into that wind max, mass is removed at jet stream level encouraging air to rise on a massive scale. You can see the low level flow into the area in another of the accompanying maps. Additional lift is generated as the incoming "warm", moist air glides up the dome of cold air in which we're situated. And check out the moisture this system has available to it--more than 0.6" of evaporated water flooding in from the south. There marriage of all these elements underpin the development of generous snows! But here's the kicker. All this moisture is being lifted into at atmosphere built for snowflake formation. Our models offer us a calculation of what's called the "dendritic growth zone"--the so-called DGZ. Sounds complicated--but it's actually the region above us which is best suited for snowflake formation. And when that zone of temps (-12 to -18-degrees Celsius) occurs in the region of maximum lift (i.e. vertical velocity) in a storm--wall-ah!! Snow forms and flutters to earth. And there you have it--a summary of the meteorological elements at work to produce this weekend's snow.

There you are!  I was just thinking about you and how the latest developments are now putting your area in possibly the hardest hit region.  Got your snow blower/shovels ready??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Correct me if I'm but I don't see much lake effect for us on this storm

Unfortunately, no there isn't.  Not the typical storm that tracks to our SE and produces a northerly fetch off the lake.  Just be glad we are getting all snow with a system that tracks to our north!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

More moisture predicted for SEMI now. I am in the swath of 6-12 inches. :D

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's awesome to see back 2 back systems where the NWS offices bump up their snow fall totals as a system approaches instead of decreasing!

We've been in a great era of high moisture and storms that are coming together in timely fashion for our region vs dying out or phasing east of us, I said this felt like '78-79 and up pops that Chicago record in play! Spooky

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

More moisture predicted for SEMI now. I am in the swath of 6-12 inches. :D

Congrats! That TV Met may not eat Crow after all

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Congrats! That TV Met may not eat Crow after all

;)

 

You should do well also, if, not better.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

;)

 

You should do well also, if, not better.

 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a pattern. A storm every 3-4 days, and quite possibly a 4th weekend storm for the Christmas Holiday. I don't ever recall a winter starting off like this.

For those who were around in the late 70's, is this a comparable start if these storms come to fruition? Hypothetically speaking.

Christmas recess 1978 was the only holiday season growing up that my buddy & I were able to use snowshoes....in SWMI no less!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This stuff is real fluffy...reminds me of lake effect snow...quarter size flakes, not a lot of wind...snow globe atmosphere.  Roads are getting really slick on such a cold surface.  Just measured 1.5" on my deck...looking at the radar, looks like it's starting to fill in towards C IA....and back building in NW IL...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kind of a joke to see snow fall maps from IWX, DTX, & CLE all showing 8-12 over SWMI yet GRR has me for 5-9"...

 

 

WPÇ maps have me in heavy snow for 3 periods as well?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...