12/10-12/12 Plains/Midwest/Lakes Weekend Snowstorm

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Is this drying out some? You said that qpf was on the rise but latest maps showing lower snow totals??

We'll have to see how the 00z runs go in order to see if there is any trend or holding steady.  GEFS still showing more than .50qpf in a wide swath near the Lakes...a lot of this snow will fall with temps in the 20's, however, near me it may end with a wetter snowfall.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120618/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png

[St Paul Storm]

Hi everyone. First time poster on this forum. I post on another forum as well, but my backyard is more centrally located on this one which I like. I am 5 miles due north of St Paul. Looking forward to this weekend system. Would be nice to lay down a nice snowpack before the potentially really arctic air hits next week. Models showing some good consistency but I'll get a little more excited if they hold serve on Thursday. Here's hoping the 'spread the wealth' pans out.

[Tom]

Hi everyone. First time poster on this forum. I post on another forum as well, but my backyard is more centrally located on this one which I like. I am 5 miles due north of St Paul. Looking forward to this weekend system. Would be nice to lay down a nice snowpack before the potentially really arctic air hits next week. Models showing some good consistency but I'll get a little more excited if they hold serve on Thursday. Here's hoping the 'spread the wealth' pans out.

Welcome aboard!  Nice Profile pic...Go Hawks!  Ya, I agree, it's nice to get a fresh snow pack before the Arctic Air hits.  Good luck with this system.

[Niko]

Already have SNOW LIKELY for Sat night in my zone. That's bold as sh*t for GRR!

Me too with 90%. They must feel very confident.

[Money]

0z GFS coming in stronger/more precip and a tad farther south through hr 90

[Money]

HR 96:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120700/096/prateptype_cat.conus.png

[Tom]

HR 96:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120700/096/prateptype_cat.conus.png

Tad south???

[Money]

Through 102 (more snow to come)

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120700/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[East Dubzz]

Glad to see it come further south.

[Money]

HR 108:

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120700/108/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120700/108/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

That's a big shift south tonight on the GFS. It tracks over or just slightly south of Chicago.

[Money]

I'm pretty sure many people will take this:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120700/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gabel23]

That's a big shift south tonight on the GFS. It tracks over or just slightly south of Chicago.

Man I need like 60 more miles south and I might get something.......would be nice to fill in the glacier as far south as we can go! Wagons south baby!!

[Money]

Man I need like 60 more miles south and I might get something.......would be nice to fill in the glacier as far south as we can go! Wagons south baby!!

 

nah. it's fine where it's at. 

[gabel23]

I'm pretty sure many people will take this:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120700/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Fill in from central Illinois on west and we are in buisness.

[Tom]

James near the bullseye. I can already see the intense banding this system is going to produce if models continue the trends.

[gabel23]

nah. it's fine where it's at.

 

I'm fine with that just get more juiced earlier to the west and spread on east.......such a tease how the heavy snow line curves southeast and misses most of central/eastern Nebraska.

[james1976]

LOVE!!!

[Money]

GGEM is south and way weaker. 

[james1976]

Not only did GFS come south a bit but its stronger. Wasnt expecting that. Still 4 days out.

[bud2380]

[East Dubzz]

Time to lock it in.

[james1976]

GFS & CMC both south and more juice. Gettin interesting!

[Tom]

00z GFS...another look...would be a nice warning snow system for many in the region...from what I can tell, the wave does not split or elongate in the Plains and bundles the energy better this run.

[Tom]

Both GFS/GGEM took a step towards the 12z Euro???  Curious to see what it shows tonight.

[hlcater]

close up CMC. not bad. not bad at all. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120700/120/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

close up CMC. not bad. not bad at all. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120700/120/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Giving E NE and all of IA some love...

[Tom]

00z GEFS agreeing with a tick south...

 

12z...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120612/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png

 

00z...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120700/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

[Tom]

GEFS trending SE with the heaviest precip as the system heads towards the Lakes...weaker towards MN/N WI

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120700/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_22.png

[Stormgeek]

Now we just need to get past this lull and get back to the REAL path!

[ToastedRavs]

Euro still slower. Time to catch up with the time you dang Europeans!

[Grizzcoat]

Euro continues to lack the juice that both the CMC and GFS show...

[ToastedRavs]

European vacation was the worst of the vacation movies and this run of the Euro did nothing to sway my mind on that matter!

[ToastedRavs]

Here's FSD on the model differences:

 

GFS is the deepest of the solns, with
the ECMWF/GEM more broad in their depiction of the wave as it moves
through. That said, there is an even split in distribution of GEFS
members between the two camps. With a cold air regime in place,
these progressive waves can become trouble, given their potential
for initial warm advection snows, followed by the stronger synoptic
lifting. For now, cautiously splitting the differences in the solns,
which bring light snows to the area late Friday night, with
increasing warm advection snow Saturday morning. Should the now
deeper GFS/GEM/NAM ideas verify and the upper jet become more
involved, there is potential for this to become a more prolific snow
producer. At of this junction in time, snow amounts may fall in the
2 to 5" range.

[OKwx2k4]

Here's FSD on the model differences:

 

GFS is the deepest of the solns, with

the ECMWF/GEM more broad in their depiction of the wave as it moves

through. That said, there is an even split in distribution of GEFS

members between the two camps. With a cold air regime in place,

these progressive waves can become trouble, given their potential

for initial warm advection snows, followed by the stronger synoptic

lifting. For now, cautiously splitting the differences in the solns,

which bring light snows to the area late Friday night, with

increasing warm advection snow Saturday morning. Should the now

deeper GFS/GEM/NAM ideas verify and the upper jet become more

involved, there is potential for this to become a more prolific snow

producer. At of this junction in time, snow amounts may fall in the

2 to 5" range.

I'd lean higher as well but that's just me. You all just keep on building that glacier. :-)

[GDR]

[Money]

6z GFS is back north and a bit stronger again:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120706/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

NAM HR 84:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016120706/084/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

[WBadgersW]

6z GFS is back north and a bit stronger again:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120706/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

This thing better stay as is. N Illinois has had its fair share the past couple winters.

[james1976]

Wow.....even larger area of 12+ on that run.