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12/10-12/12 Plains/Midwest/Lakes Weekend Snowstorm


Tom

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So our takeaway from the runs so far is that there is a healthy looking storm for this weekend for many on this sub forum and the mother load of cold will be unleased next week. Stay tuned as winter is just getting started and its going to be a heck of a ride.

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Oh my goodness this would be amazing. I honestly think this storm solution is most plausible, where it gets it's act together earlier. In terms of track it will obviously fluctuate, but I really hope the EURO is starting a trend with this!!!

Not sure its the most plausible.  The flow is pretty fast and strong.  Not saying it wont happen but not sure I buy the EURO just yet

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I posted that Clark over @ BAMwx was keen on this phasing further west and giving some love to Neb peeps. Voila! as they say. Wow @ another Chi-town smack-down (not to mention 15+ for mby?)  :blink:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

I keep getting upload errors. The size it wants to allow keeps getting smaller and smaller. Is there a daily limit or something??

 

attachicon.gif20161207 upload snafu.JPG

You've reached your maximum amount of upload capacity.  In order to open up space, you need to click on "My Settings", then click on "Manage Attachments"...from there, you will see all of the attachments you have made and delete the posts to open up space.  Hope this helps.

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Cautiously optimistic to see the 12z Euro so juiced/amped.  It was not that long ago, the Euro was painting 2-3 Feet in the Plains for the previous system the other day that never formed.  As much as I like looking at it, I'd be more enthusiastic if it were Thu/Fri and it was painting those type of totals.

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This storm is actually two different pieces of energy in the E PAC.  1) The 1004 mb storm off the west coast of Cali....2) That energy way up north hugging the southern AK shoreline...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016120712/ecmwf_mslpa_namer_1.png

 

All models show the energy hitting the PAC NW coast late Friday night...what it does from there is where the differences begin.  GFS is quicker ejecting out of CO.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120712/gfs_mslpa_namer_11.png

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You've reached your maximum amount of upload capacity.  In order to open up space, you need to click on "My Settings", then click on "Manage Attachments"...from there, you will see all of the attachments you have made and delete the posts to open up space.  Hope this helps.

 

LOL - guess I like my images, don't I? 20 pgs worth:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:D  :D CPC comes to the party, and brings the goods to #MichRocksWinter

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z EPS agreeing with its Op track coming out of CO towards N IN...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016120712/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_5.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016120712/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_6.png

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:D  :D CPC comes to the party, and brings the goods to #MichRocksWinter

 

attachicon.gif20161207 CPC 3-7day Hazards.png

 

;)  :lol: LOL @ just leaving the same LES outlines and editing the dates. I wonder how many times they'll be doing that this winter??

 

(shared with my co-worker who just got his first snow sled and he's pretty pumped about it)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Drills the Dakotas and MSP area. Similar to GFS, but a tad further north, and heaviest snow in South Dakota.

Now that sounds like something I could buy! Very interesting how the models are battling like this. Hopefully consistency can win out. Interested to see the next Euro run to check its consistency. Too bad it only runs twice a day.

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