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Christmas Holiday Major Storm System


Tom

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Even though nearly all of us are going to escape what will be a potential blizzard this coming holiday weekend for the Dakotas (again), we will feel the effects of this storm system.  Winter time thunderstorms (yuck), freezing rain, sleet, snow...flood potential???  Let's discuss...

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Even though nearly all of us are going to escape what will be a potential blizzard this coming holiday weekend for the Dakotas (again), we will feel the effects of this storm system.  Winter time thunderstorms (yuck), freezing rain, sleet, snow...flood potential???  Let's discuss...

Thanks for doing this Tom.  Most will escape the worst of the storm (snow), many will be traveling and might be going to the Northern Plains, Black Hills, Rockies, etc.

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My local forecast calls for thunderstorms Christmas day. That should get us in the festive mood here.

 

BTW, did you know you can find Christmas cards with snow scenes but none with thunderstorm scenes? I called Hallmark about it this morning...

 

I also had to change the lyrics to "Sleigh Ride".  I now sing...

 

"....come on it's lovely weather for a storm chase together with you....da da daaaaaaaaaaa....da da daaaaaaaaaaa."

 

(The forum needs a rimshot button....)

 

Sorry for all the digression there.... :unsure:

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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A lot of ppl in MN, esp the Northwoods, are going to have an un-welcome snow pack defeat from this system.  TBH, this season is a balancing act for the Dakotas which haven't seen a solid winter in many, many years.  Even during the past couple cold winters, they escaped a majority of the big storms.

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A lot of ppl in MN, esp the Northwoods, are going to have an un-welcome snow pack defeat from this system.  TBH, this season is a balancing act for the Dakotas which haven't seen a solid winter in many, many years.  Even during the past couple cold winters, they escaped a majority of the big storms.

 

So true, and all those historic 1880's winters featured the "Dakota Territories" getting bliz on bliz, so here we go..??

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The only silver lining with this storm around here and lower lakes will be the lack of heavy rains as that threat is more towards MN/WI region and maybe N IA.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122112/gfs_apcpn_ncus_23.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122112/gem_apcpn_ncus_23.png

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I dont think ive ever seen tstorms on Christmas. That would be wild.

 

Yeah, I remember 65º and a strong gust front, but not TSSM's 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I dont think ive ever seen tstorms on Christmas. That would be wild.

We(Linn County) had an EF0 tornado with a line of tstms that moved thru on dec. 23rd last year. It was insane.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Hope we get to experience a storm of this magnitude sometime this Winter...would love to be in ND to experience this...

 

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/fgf/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=77401

 

 

Hope we get to experience a storm of this magnitude sometime this Winter...would love to be in ND to experience this...

 

In that region 2" plus high winds is bad enough, especially with any existing snow cover. Those areas have 10-20" OTG! Gonna be awesome for snow peeps. On Christmas no less. Only two storms for SMI that could compare imho - Jan 1918 (10+ OTG with 12-15" & bliz conditions), and Jan 1978 (5+ OTG with 20-24" & raging bliz conditions). Both those were "train-stopping storms" of lore for these parts. Only been :rolleyes: 39 yrs now, what's the hurry Ma Nature?!?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Leaving with the family tomorrow morning for Christmas with the relatives in Kansas City. Forecast tomorrow in kc; high of 63 degrees with a 100% chance of rain and possible severe thunderstorms. So much for a white Christmas.

GFS and old folklore down here says thunder down here precedes snow by a week in winter. We'll see. That 10-16 looks nice for me. :)

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I picked up 0.41" of rain from the warm advection band.  There was one rumble of thunder with the best cell.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Such a narrow line of storms. Will be interesting to see how that keeps together/develops as it heads east. Temps right now are still sitting around 32 (which is causing little isolated ice problems with the rain). But, NWS has them raising to 50 by late tonight. Will be interesting to see if we make it there. I think we only hit the mid-40s, but we shall see. And then I'm guessing we don't pick up much more than .25" of rain tonight unless those storms manage to be stronger than I'm thinking. 

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Picked up about a half inch of rain with the passage of the "thin squall line" about an hour ago. Strongest wind gusts only got up to 45-50 mph estimated around here. I didn't hear any thunder or see any lightning as this passed through (had quite a bit of thunder and lightning with the warm front convection around 7:30 this morning with .20 of rain).

 

A very strange weather day, thunderstorms in the morning with temps in the upper 30s, then the south winds picked up during the day driving temps into the 50's before the windy squall line of intense showers pushed through this afternoon.

 

Definitely did not feel like Christmas Day weather-wise today in the Omaha area.

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This storm is a beast, you have high winds, ice storm, blizzard and flooding. I feel for the people in Aberdeen......

 

 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
SDC013-260615-
/O.NEW.KABR.FF.W.0007.161226T0013Z-161226T0615Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
613 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

The National Weather Service in Aberdeen has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Rain and Snowmelt in...
Brown County in northeastern South Dakota...

* Until 1215 AM CST Monday

* At 606 PM CST, local law enforcement officials reported flooding
over several major intersections in the city of Aberdeen in the
warned area. Over an inch of rain has already fallen, and when
combined with melting snow in town, additional flooding problems
are expected over the next several hours. Flooding is already
occurring.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to a half inch are possible in the
warned area. Other cities within Brown County may experience the
same problems, especially in low lying areas and near rivers,
streams and creeks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall and melting snow will cause
flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets
and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

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Very strong pressure, I'm currently at 29.37". I have just been included in the high wind warning, it's hollowing. I couldn't imagine what it would look like if it were snowing. 

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

NEZ041-048-049-063-064-076-260600-
/O.EXB.KGID.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-161226T0600Z/
NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FULLERTON...GENOA...CENTRAL CITY...
STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...SHELBY...POLK...AURORA...YORK...SUTTON...
HARVARD...CLAY CENTER...EDGAR...FAIRFIELD
634 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* PEAK WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS. SUDDEN WIND GUSTS COULD
CAUSE VEHICLES TO SWERVE OR LOSE CONTROL...ESPECIALLY HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AND LIGHT WEIGHT TRAILERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

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