Tom Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 Even though nearly all of us are going to escape what will be a potential blizzard this coming holiday weekend for the Dakotas (again), we will feel the effects of this storm system. Winter time thunderstorms (yuck), freezing rain, sleet, snow...flood potential??? Let's discuss... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 Even though nearly all of us are going to escape what will be a potential blizzard this coming holiday weekend for the Dakotas (again), we will feel the effects of this storm system. Winter time thunderstorms (yuck), freezing rain, sleet, snow...flood potential??? Let's discuss...Thanks for doing this Tom. Most will escape the worst of the storm (snow), many will be traveling and might be going to the Northern Plains, Black Hills, Rockies, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 DVN has mentioned storms, and potentially strong ones, around here several times. If it's going to rain, I want it to be an exciting rain with some storms hah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 My local forecast calls for thunderstorms Christmas day. That should get us in the festive mood here. BTW, did you know you can find Christmas cards with snow scenes but none with thunderstorm scenes? I called Hallmark about it this morning... I also had to change the lyrics to "Sleigh Ride". I now sing... "....come on it's lovely weather for a storm chase together with you....da da daaaaaaaaaaa....da da daaaaaaaaaaa." (The forum needs a rimshot button....) Sorry for all the digression there.... 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 The grinch that stole Christmas. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 I keep forgetting about the wind potential with this thing. DMX talking warning criteria. Even tho most of us will be on the warm side there is still plenty to talk about. Tstorms maybe?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 North Dakota hit again. 12Z GFS with another in a long line of storms (blizzards) for them. I will now exit quietly and cry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 So, there is actually a wave coming through my area on a Friday night that may drop a little snow... of course, only to be wiped out during this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 A lot of ppl in MN, esp the Northwoods, are going to have an un-welcome snow pack defeat from this system. TBH, this season is a balancing act for the Dakotas which haven't seen a solid winter in many, many years. Even during the past couple cold winters, they escaped a majority of the big storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 A lot of ppl in MN, esp the Northwoods, are going to have an un-welcome snow pack defeat from this system. TBH, this season is a balancing act for the Dakotas which haven't seen a solid winter in many, many years. Even during the past couple cold winters, they escaped a majority of the big storms. So true, and all those historic 1880's winters featured the "Dakota Territories" getting bliz on bliz, so here we go..?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 The only silver lining with this storm around here and lower lakes will be the lack of heavy rains as that threat is more towards MN/WI region and maybe N IA. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122112/gfs_apcpn_ncus_23.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122112/gem_apcpn_ncus_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 But, if there is a chance for storms, could be real bad if those get rolling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 But, if there is a chance for storms, could be real bad if those get rolling.Thats the wildcard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 I dont think ive ever seen tstorms on Christmas. That would be wild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 I dont think ive ever seen tstorms on Christmas. That would be wild. Yeah, I remember 65º and a strong gust front, but not TSSM's Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 The one time I wanted to be dry slotted. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 Blizzard Watches hoisted in W SD... http://www.weather.gov/images/unr/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=70335 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 I dont think ive ever seen tstorms on Christmas. That would be wild.Had a tornado hit the eastern part of my town and Cincinnati, AR on new years eve night once. It was pretty crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 I dont think ive ever seen tstorms on Christmas. That would be wild.We(Linn County) had an EF0 tornado with a line of tstms that moved thru on dec. 23rd last year. It was insane. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 60+ mph wind gusts being predicted in SD on the 12z GFS...although, this storm keeps trending NW...snow pack will need to get re-established up there post storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 Hope we get to experience a storm of this magnitude sometime this Winter...would love to be in ND to experience this... http://www.weather.gov/images/fgf/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=77401 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 Hope we get to experience a storm of this magnitude sometime this Winter...would love to be in ND to experience this... http://www.weather.gov/images/fgf/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=77401Ya looks awesome. Nam spitting out up to.an inch of zr in parts of MN. Horrible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 Hope we get to experience a storm of this magnitude sometime this Winter...would love to be in ND to experience this... http://www.weather.gov/images/fgf/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=77401 Hope we get to experience a storm of this magnitude sometime this Winter...would love to be in ND to experience this... In that region 2" plus high winds is bad enough, especially with any existing snow cover. Those areas have 10-20" OTG! Gonna be awesome for snow peeps. On Christmas no less. Only two storms for SMI that could compare imho - Jan 1918 (10+ OTG with 12-15" & bliz conditions), and Jan 1978 (5+ OTG with 20-24" & raging bliz conditions). Both those were "train-stopping storms" of lore for these parts. Only been 39 yrs now, what's the hurry Ma Nature?!? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Leaving with the family tomorrow morning for Christmas with the relatives in Kansas City. Forecast tomorrow in kc; high of 63 degrees with a 100% chance of rain and possible severe thunderstorms. So much for a white Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Leaving with the family tomorrow morning for Christmas with the relatives in Kansas City. Forecast tomorrow in kc; high of 63 degrees with a 100% chance of rain and possible severe thunderstorms. So much for a white Christmas.GFS and old folklore down here says thunder down here precedes snow by a week in winter. We'll see. That 10-16 looks nice for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Little freezing drizzle here making some spots on the road slick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Raining hard and 33. Merry Christmas. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 I picked up 0.41" of rain from the warm advection band. There was one rumble of thunder with the best cell. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Well, I have now experienced a blizzard on christmas (2009) and now a shelf cloud with very strong winds and torrential rain! It was very impressive seeing this in December!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Here is a video after the shelf cloud. https://www.facebook.com/gabel23/videos/vb.17215821/10102839784640783/?type=2&theater¬if_t=video_processed¬if_id=1482702462739544 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Well, I have now experienced a blizzard on christmas (2009) and now a shelf cloud with very strong winds and torrential rain! It was very impressive seeing this in December!!Impressive. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 In Kansas City waiting for the line of storms to move through. The line is Just passing Topeka Kansas so about 60 miles to our west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Such a narrow line of storms. Will be interesting to see how that keeps together/develops as it heads east. Temps right now are still sitting around 32 (which is causing little isolated ice problems with the rain). But, NWS has them raising to 50 by late tonight. Will be interesting to see if we make it there. I think we only hit the mid-40s, but we shall see. And then I'm guessing we don't pick up much more than .25" of rain tonight unless those storms manage to be stronger than I'm thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Picked up about a half inch of rain with the passage of the "thin squall line" about an hour ago. Strongest wind gusts only got up to 45-50 mph estimated around here. I didn't hear any thunder or see any lightning as this passed through (had quite a bit of thunder and lightning with the warm front convection around 7:30 this morning with .20 of rain). A very strange weather day, thunderstorms in the morning with temps in the upper 30s, then the south winds picked up during the day driving temps into the 50's before the windy squall line of intense showers pushed through this afternoon. Definitely did not feel like Christmas Day weather-wise today in the Omaha area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Pouring rain now in the western suburbs of Kansas City (Shawnee) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 This storm has a beautiful trowel looking feature on radar...gotta love it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 26, 2016 Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 This storm is a beast, you have high winds, ice storm, blizzard and flooding. I feel for the people in Aberdeen...... Flash Flood WarningFlash Flood WarningSDC013-260615-/O.NEW.KABR.FF.W.0007.161226T0013Z-161226T0615Z//00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFlash Flood WarningNational Weather Service Aberdeen SD613 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016The National Weather Service in Aberdeen has issued a* Flash Flood Warning for...Rain and Snowmelt in...Brown County in northeastern South Dakota...* Until 1215 AM CST Monday* At 606 PM CST, local law enforcement officials reported floodingover several major intersections in the city of Aberdeen in thewarned area. Over an inch of rain has already fallen, and whencombined with melting snow in town, additional flooding problemsare expected over the next several hours. Flooding is alreadyoccurring.Additional rainfall amounts of up to a half inch are possible in thewarned area. Other cities within Brown County may experience thesame problems, especially in low lying areas and near rivers,streams and creeks.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall and melting snow will causeflooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streetsand underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 26, 2016 Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Very strong pressure, I'm currently at 29.37". I have just been included in the high wind warning, it's hollowing. I couldn't imagine what it would look like if it were snowing. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE634 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016NEZ041-048-049-063-064-076-260600-/O.EXB.KGID.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-161226T0600Z/NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-CLAY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FULLERTON...GENOA...CENTRAL CITY...STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...SHELBY...POLK...AURORA...YORK...SUTTON...HARVARD...CLAY CENTER...EDGAR...FAIRFIELD634 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.* PEAK WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO70 MPH.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS. SUDDEN WIND GUSTS COULDCAUSE VEHICLES TO SWERVE OR LOSE CONTROL...ESPECIALLY HIGHPROFILE VEHICLES AND LIGHT WEIGHT TRAILERS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTEDOR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTSOF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 26, 2016 Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Don't think anybody will be out and about in North Dakota.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 26, 2016 Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Grand Island just had a 65kt (75mph) wind gust.KGRI 260053Z 10SM 04/M01 A2934 RMK AO2 PK WND 21065/0035 SLP950 T00391006 $ Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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