January 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

This would seem to show some snow spreading into NE tomorrow evening?

 

20170103 I-cast map 7pm 1-4.PNG

Might be enough to whiten up the ground according to the 00z Euro...

[jaster220]

Might be enough to whiten up the ground according to the 00z Euro...

 

Should be with less-fluffy system snow. Not sure how surface temps have been or will be during the snow fall, or soil temps for keeping it around after it falls, but compared to the Snow Nazi regime they've had lately, it should be a nice welcomed set-up.

 

Edit: I see the cold has hit NE already - brr  so the ground should be "flash frozen" on top if not very deep. Chill yet to reach MO though

 

 

[jaster220]

Might be enough to whiten up the ground according to the 00z Euro...

 

S Iowa - ouch! The Snow Nazi must really hate that area - sheesh

[jaster220]

Looks like GRR's updated AFD is calling for one more good soaking today before the arctic front moves through and things get a lot more like winter through the week and into the weekend. They said that the on and off LES may last til Saturday night before it shuts off. Currently in the 30's and from yrs of experience, these set-ups deliver better than when the temps are way above freezing. While LES happens when you start at 50F and drop to 25F, best events are when you start at

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Dreary, wet and mild in SEMI with temps @ 43F.

[Tom]

We had some dense fog this morning and could barely see down the block.  Could have sworn it looked like a dreary Spring-like day out there.  Still some mist in the air while it's 39F.  #WhereHasWinterGone  #AZTime

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.25" of rain last evening.

[St Paul Storm]

Already down to 11F and still falling. Single digits and bone dry all week here in the winter desert of C MN.

[Tom]

Already down to 11F and still falling. Single digits and bone dry all week here in the winter desert of C MN.

How much snow OTG do you have???

[St Paul Storm]

How much snow OTG do you have???

I'd say maybe 1-2" in spots. But a lot of bare ground especially on areas facing south.

[Tom]

I'd say maybe 1-2" in spots. But a lot of bare ground especially on areas facing south.

Ouch!  That stinks..esp you would think MSP area would have several inches or more OTG at this time of year.  Reminds me of last year's El Nino.

[gosaints]

When its cold its a dry cold and when its wet its warm 

[Tom]

When its cold its a dry cold and when its wet its warm 

Minus first 2 weeks of December which brought excitement around these parts...

[jaster220]

We had some dense fog this morning and could barely see down the block.  Could have sworn it looked like a dreary Spring-like day out there.  Still some mist in the air while it's 39F.  #WhereHasWinterGone  #AZTime

 

Hahaha - was just gonna ask you about that! I would, or a trip to NMI/UP snow belts would at least scratch an itch.

 

Ouch!  That stinks..esp you would think MSP area would have several inches or more OTG at this time of year.  Reminds me of last year's El Nino.

 

In other thread I said this is acting like a hang-over Nino

 

Minus first 2 weeks of December which brought excitement around these parts...

 

Instead of the 12 days of Christmas, I've dubbed it the "12 days of winter"

[jaster220]

Most areas other than S Iowa and Nebraska are actually ahead of last season's snowfall, but for the bulk of the sub, the net snow cover results are eerily similar

 

 

[jaster220]

Hook over WMI??? I'm not trying to be a total a$$ (since I totally get that I'm the fortunate one on the sub who's getting anything much of interest from this cold wave), but couldn't help thinking how this GFS map resembled a radar "hook sig" over Lwr Mich

 

 

 

 

@ Niko - this is thru the 19th and it's showing some snow over your way, actually almost 6" line to your region. The GFS wants to give SMI some front-end synoptic snows with the 10-11th system. At least I think that's where your snows come from. Not sure tbh.

[Niko]

Hook over WMI??? I'm not trying to be a total a$$ (since I totally get that I'm the fortunate one on the sub who's getting anything much of interest from this cold wave), but couldn't help thinking how this GFS map resembled a radar "hook sig" over Lwr Mich

 

20170103 WMI hook.PNG

 

 

@ Niko - this is thru the 19th and it's showing some snow over your way, actually almost 6" line to your region. The GFS wants to give SMI some front-end synoptic snows with the 10-11th system. At least I think that's where your snows come from. Not sure tbh.

I'll accept that.

 

Btw: I checked your forecast and it is looking good for your area. If I am correct, you are under a WWA with 4-10inches. Blowing and drifting of the snow as well. Enjoy!!

[Tom]

I skimmed through this article which list the states with the worst winters.  Surprised that Illinois is rated #13, Michigan #2 and North Dakota #4.

 

https://www.thrillist.com/travel/nation/states-with-the-worst-winters-worst-us-states-for-winter?ref=twitter-869

 

 

I though this explanation of Michigan was too funny:

 

 

 

2. Michigan

Winter in Michigan begins well before Thanksgiving and stretches far past Easter, which makes for four-to-six wearisome months of always-gray, always-cold, always-drizzly, but-rarely-snowy-in-a-good-way misery. Some other states may see colder temps or more snow, but Michigan winters are unrivaled for their utter lack of sunshine. The ceaseless cloud cover begins in October, and envelopes the state in a daily sense of gloom that only worsens when the apathetic sun slouches below the horizon at quarter-to-five.

For the Michigander, this is winter: you leave work at 5 or 6, already in the dead of night, and fight your way down 94 or 96 or 75 or whatever Godforsaken stretch of highway. You can't even tell if it is drizzling rain or snow, because the brown salt sludge that sprays up off the road coats your windshield more completely than anything that falls from the sky. Overnight, the road freezes. In the morning you wake up and it is still dark. You scrape off your car, then get stuck in traffic as the cars ahead of you gawk at the SUV that has slid into the ditch. You actually look forward to a proper snowfall, just to cover the dirt. Even then, you do not go skiing, because there are no hills.

You do not look forward to outdoor winter recreation because there is none. You might go bowling. You probably put on weight. If you are lucky you might have a snowmobile, but it's a pain in the a** to get out. More likely your ******* neighbor has one, and it is loud. In early April you convince yourself it is spring because it is Tigers Opening Day. You overpay for tickets to the game, tell yourself 45 degrees isn't that cold, and cheer when the sun peeks out at the end of the fourth inning. That is the light at the end of the tunnel. Winter in Michigan is a miserable, miserable time. -- Bison Messink, Deputy Editor/recovering Michigander 

[Tom]

00z NAM showing a few inches Wed/Wed night right through CentralNeb back yard...north side of KC gets some white stuff...

 

 

[Andrew NE]

00z NAM is a little more juicy than previous runs. Should have good ratios.

[Tom]

00z NAM is a little more juicy than previous runs. Should have good ratios.

Fluffy powda...

[bud2380]

Where's our Nebraska peeps?? All models tonight showing 1-3" for a large chunk of Nebraska. Some models showing even a little more

[Andrew NE]

Just need this thing to come north a tad for OMA

[OKwx2k4]

We're this close with 2" anywhere from the Red River to Omaha. Lol. Great modeling. Lol.

[westMJim]

After seeing 15 days in a row of warmer than average temperatures and the snow depth go from 9+ inches to just snow piles we are now retuning to several days of below average temperatures and some snow.

Right now I have a temperature of +16° and almost one inch of new snow on the ground so ever thing is now white again! Not sure how much snow will fall this week but some areas will get more than others. Grand Rapids is now at 37.9” (will go over 38” with the snow today) my guess for the winter season is still in the 70 to 80” range. A lot will depend on how January goes as for the most part February is a less snowy month than December or January. And by March the lake effect is all but gone.

[westMJim]

I should have added that I now have around one inch of snow on the ground with some blowing snow. The temperature here now at 15°

[jaster220]

Where's our Nebraska peeps?? All models tonight showing 1-3" for a large chunk of Nebraska. Some models showing even a little more

 

THIS X10!!  Y'all suddenly got some headlines and it's crickets in here? :huh:

[FV-Mike]

2-4 potential  in KC metro. seems that would be a big deal with the cold also pushing through

[Tom]

I'd like to start a thread for this one so we can pop the cherry for those in the central/southern plains!  Pop the bottles of champagne...the white stuff will be falling from the sky in the 2017!  

[Tom]

3-4" near CentralNeb's hometown while temps are in the single digits ATM.  Frozen ground and no residual snow removal chemicals will wreck havoc and black ice I'd imagine.

[Tom]

Did the GEFS bust bad on the forecast -NAO just a few days ago or what...now it's forecast sky high...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

AO still may go into the tank as the PNA relaxes...we'll see...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[jaster220]

I skimmed through this article which list the states with the worst winters.  Surprised that Illinois is rated #13, Michigan #2 and North Dakota #4.

 

https://www.thrillist.com/travel/nation/states-with-the-worst-winters-worst-us-states-for-winter?ref=twitter-869

 

 

I though this explanation of Michigan was too funny:

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:   (couldn't stop laughing!)  OMG is that so correct!! Looks to be written from a Detroit peep's perspective wrt the x-ways, but oh so spot on! The cloudiness was even worse in NMI if that's possible. I didn't expect sunny days at all from Nov 1 til Feb 15th at the earliest when I lived up there.

 

 

AO still may go into the tank as the PNA relaxes...we'll see...

 

We sure need something to come to our rescue or it'll be warm cutters all the way. Who'd a thought that with all the autumn cold in Eurasia and the early PV displacement(s)?

[NEJeremy]

THIS X10!!  Y'all suddenly got some headlines and it's crickets in here? :huh:

Call me greedy, but meh. less than 1" here, no blizzard conditions. Not going to make a big deal out of it. We had .5" a couple of weeks ago, so I've seen this already a couple of times this season.

[Tom]

For the time of year, pretty amazing to see only about 2.6% of the Great Lakes with Ice Cover...

 

[Niko]

Squalls and much colder temps today. Dusting the ground a bit. Nothing unusual for January standards. Hoping for an inch from a strong squall later taday.

[earthandturf]

For the time of year, pretty amazing to see only about 2.6% of the Great Lakes with Ice Cover...

 

 

Setting the stage for a warm spring around the Great Lakes?

[Niko]

Setting the stage for a warm spring around the Great Lakes?

If not an early Spring.

[Tom]

Setting the stage for a warm spring around the Great Lakes?

March will probably roar in like a lion but may exit like a lamb this year.  I think the cold will hang on the farther north/west you go into April.

[Guest Snowball]

Snow is expanding in central Nebraska! North platte has received 4in this morning. How are the models looking for eastern Nebraska this evening?

[clintbeed1993]

Have a dusting in GI with steady light snow expected through the evening.  Maybe 4 inches if I'm lucky but see it being lower.  Atleast something to look at and whiten up the ground if only for a few days.  Next week looks balmy.  This will add a few inches to my whopping 2 inch snowfall total this season!  Maybe that's why Nebraska peeps are not all that enthused?  Oh well, I'm going to enjoy every flake that flies since they are so hard to come by out here.