james1976 Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Measured another 1.3" from overnight and I'm sure that had compacted some. I think we have prolly had a good 6" over the last few days. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 I picked up another 1.1" overnight. My two-day snow total is a respectable 2.5". Of course, half of yesterday's snow melted, so there is not 2.5" on the ground. 6 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: And there is this- a warm up no doubt is coming and I think lasts longer than many think, but i don't think a DEC like 2014 is coming when DEC laid a an egg after a memorable Nov. I think after the 10th it's more like Dec of 2008 / 2010. 000 SXUS73 KDMX 160811 RERDSM RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1256 AM CST WED NOV 16 2022 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT DES MOINES IA... A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 2.7 INCHES WAS SET AT DES MOINES IA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.0 INCHES SET IN 2014. THIS IS A CORRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS RECORD STATEMENT SENT EARLIER WHICH WAS THE 24HR SNOWFALL, NOT THE DAILY TOTAL. THE DAILY SNOWFALL YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 15TH, 2022 WAS 2.7 INCHES WHICH STILL SETS A NEW DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD AT DES MOINES. IF it does, @tStacsh best go into hiding, lol. He's been pushing for this very scenario. In other 2014 Deja-vu news, my old home is under the Watch. GRR not playing that partial county watch-box game yet. Problem is only the western 1/3 of the county will score in 90% of these LES scenarios. Winds have to remain DUE W or north of. Any slight vector S of due West will hose Marshall as it did 8 Novembers ago. We will see.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Sleet this evening at home. The 4 mile latitude difference between home (south) and work (north) was weird today. The middle 2 miles of that had like 4X the snow with first covering on roads this season in between the traffic lanes. Either side of that was like a tenth or two. Talk about a micro-climate event! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Sleet this evening at home. The 4 mile latitude difference between home (south) and work (north) was weird today. The middle 2 miles of that had like 4X the snow with first covering on roads this season in between the traffic lanes. Either side of that was like a tenth or two. Talk about a micro-climate event! I saw that narrow band on radar over i-94..... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Niko said: I saw that narrow band on radar over i-94..... 12z NAM yesterday "nailed it". Wife and I went to Canton's library. Walked out about 7 to some nice true flakes flying. Super nice mood setter with more and more holiday decorations popping-up around the area. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Some hefty totals over in SW lower MI....after this weekend is through, I could see some places with 2 Feet OTG... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: Some hefty totals over in SW lower MI....after this weekend is through, I could see some places with 2 Feet OTG If everything goes as forecasted and there is indeed a good WSW and W wind over the next several days my area could go rather well. But with lake effect everything has to come into place and of course it becomes location, location. So we shall see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, westMJim said: If everything goes as forecasted and there is indeed a good WSW and W wind over the next several days my area could go rather well. But with lake effect everything has to come into place and of course it becomes location, location. So we shall see. Good Luck! I feel pretty confident you'll score at least 10"... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, westMJim said: If everything goes as forecasted and there is indeed a good WSW and W wind over the next several days my area could go rather well. But with lake effect everything has to come into place and of course it becomes location, location. So we shall see. Starting out well. Just off and on right now though. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 It has been snowing at a light to moderate rate now since 8 AM. Here in my yard I have just under 3" of new snow on the ground. There is just slush on the driveway and sidewalk. The warm ground and a air temperature of 34 is keeping total on the ground down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 hours ago, Stacsh said: Starting out well. Just off and on right now though. GRR's AFD mentioning the most intense round could be Saturday when the re-inforcing arctic front sweeps through. 12k NAM reflecting it nicely right thru yby around 1 pm 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 When I lived in S. Bend, I worked here just a few miles north of the MI border: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 451 PM EST WED NOV 16 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0440 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 N BUCHANAN 41.89N 86.37W 11/16/2022 E13.1 INCH BERRIEN MI PUBLIC 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 23 hours ago, jaster220 said: IF it does, @tStacsh best go into hiding, lol. He's been pushing for this very scenario. In other 2014 Deja-vu news, my old home is under the Watch. GRR not playing that partial county watch-box game yet. Problem is only the western 1/3 of the county will score in 90% of these LES scenarios. Winds have to remain DUE W or north of. Any slight vector S of due West will hose Marshall as it did 8 Novembers ago. We will see.. Lots of snow. Ground should stay white for a while. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Pretty cool to see that Meso Low on Satellite by the Keweenaw. The loop shows it great! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-N_Tier-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: GRR's AFD mentioning the most intense round could be Saturday when the re-inforcing arctic front sweeps through. 12k NAM reflecting it nicely right thru yby around 1 pm yeah, not complaining, but with the ground warm and temps around 32-33 degrees the snow just isn't sticking to anything but grass and it is just a slop fest. Lot's of melting still. Still have 3" on the ground. Nothing steady, just heavy bursts of snow every half an hour. Need a consistent band. Day time pulses off the lake are intense but don't last long. Hopefully overnight with the colder air moving in we get some consistent banding. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 The 12z HRRR has an area just south of Buffalo, NY that could have up to 70 inches of snow! 1 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 I'm missing these intense snow squalls back home... These are the type of scenarios we are going to see quite often this winter. I got a feeling, that this is just a harbinger of things to come. Big time snows up in the U.P. and Ski Country of Ironwood, MI... The Eastern LES belt region is on Fuego! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Everything is snow covered outside w/ temps in the upper 20s. NOAA: Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 MIZ060>063-068>070-181330- Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb- Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, and Warren 616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS THIS MORNING... Scattered snow showers will persist across the area this morning. A couple of inches of snow fell across much of the area overnight, leaving roads snow covered and slick. Drivers need to slow down and allow extra time to reach their destinations this morning. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 38 minutes ago, Niko said: Everything is snow covered outside w/ temps in the upper 20s. NOAA: Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 MIZ060>063-068>070-181330- Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb- Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, and Warren 616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS THIS MORNING... Scattered snow showers will persist across the area this morning. A couple of inches of snow fell across much of the area overnight, leaving roads snow covered and slick. Drivers need to slow down and allow extra time to reach their destinations this morning. Congrats on the snow, I hope you enjoy it. I think you will see more of it the next few weeks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Turn up the volume...#thundersnow 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Measured 8" average in the yard. No drifting so pretty easy to measure. My new electric snowblower handled about 6" on the driveway easy. It was WET snow. So clearly not pure Lake effect. Probably have received close to 10-11" of actual snow. Lot melted. When heavy snow hits it is likely 1" per hour rates or more. The drive to work SUCKED. I'll take snow on roads over slop and ice. Wish they didn't plow at all! 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 This week has been pretty Epic. (for November) Another good snow shower happening right now. It's been off and on snowing since Saturday AND I haven't had to shovel once! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 This is interesting from the NWS office here in Grand Rapids " I have been getting moderate to at times almost heavy snow fall today in the "lull" and now have almost 8.5" on the ground but fell more that 12" has fallen. Getting moderate snow fall at this time with a temperature of 30. There is no wind at all here and the snow is clinging to the trees. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 0.4" overnight in Canton/Livonia area. More north as Niko showed. WC's are just a bit nippy. Tom's got to come home during a warm spell to adjust. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Pretty amazing scenes coming out of Buffalo area. I can't imagine 3 inch/hour rates, and with thundersnow to boot! Super jealous. Back closer to home, we bottomed out at 6 degrees with the wind chill reaching -9. Some more potential snow flurries overnight and into Saturday morning but as the theme of the week here goes, shouldn't amount to much. I have experinced those snowfall rates during Nor'easters and believe me when I tell you that it is amazing to see snow fall that heavily. Now add 30mph+ wind to that and that is where the beauty begins. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Snowing pretty much all morning here (light to moderate). An inch or more has fallen. Temps are at 31F. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Guy in Hamburg, NY, on the other weather forum, is up to 4 feet. 1 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 0.4" overnight in Canton/Livonia area. More north as Niko showed. WC's are just a bit nippy. Tom's got to come home during a warm spell to adjust. Our mornings here dip into the 40's and its chilly, not gonna lie. I can't imagine the 10's, let along the single digits that some of you are experiencing. Nevertheless, I'm going to have dip head first into Winter! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 @jaster220Your ol' stomping grounds getting nailed right now...a sweet looking west/east band ripping KZOO... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Ok will try this again here is the update from GRR UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2022 WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING BOTH NORTHWARD IN AREA AND TO 12Z SUNDAY IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR OUR NEXT WAVE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO 12Z SUNDAY. THIS IS TO ADDRESS THE GROWING THREAT SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE IN A RELATIVE LULL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL TRY TO EXPRESS THAT IN THE FORTHCOMING WARNING AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW SATURDAY, WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS INCREASING THE HAZARDS OF EXPOSURE TO COLD, POOR VISIBILITY, AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING. ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST AND MOST PROLONGED SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ADJACENT TO THE LAKE, THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF HEAVY SNOW DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE GRAND RAPIDS METRO AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL SEE HEAVIEST SNOW COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS ESPECIALLY INTERESTING FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS LANSING WHERE PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG LAKE-INDUCED FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WE WILL TRY TO HAVE THE UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OUT BEFORE 1130 AM. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 I cleared the driveway with the snowblower and took an update measurement of the snow on the ground. There is now 9.4” of snow on the ground here in my yard. There was less snow in the driveway with just 4” but it was very wet for lake effect snow. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: @jaster220Your ol' stomping grounds getting nailed right now...a sweet looking west/east band ripping KZOO... It's really picking up again. Lot's of areas should see another 4" + accumulate after sundown. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 With tonight and tomorrow yet to go Grand Rapids is now at 11.5" for the last two days of snow fall and here in my yard I am now up to 9.8" on the ground. For the month Grand Rapids is now at 15.1" This will be the snowiest November since 2014. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: @jaster220Your ol' stomping grounds getting nailed right now...a sweet looking west/east band ripping KZOO... So, apparently I had to leave for this to happen - sigh! Seriously tho, we had a few good LES events in my nearly 2 decades there but the BIGGIE LES events always failed. It looks like this one is going to be the one to deliver on the Warning headline (if not totally be the surprise over-achiever). GRR's pm AFD brings back fond memories of my winters of yore in NWMI. One event barely has time to end and the next is upon you. I-94 magnet seems to be a theme, not to mention they've not added 40 mph winds to the WSWarning. After a brief intermission, we will see a very rapid onset of a new round of snow across the northwest forecast area shortly after sunrise Saturday. This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow. Meanwhile, farther east over Lake Michigan, the boundary layer will quickly deepen with convective instability exceeding a depth of 10000 ft. This deep lake instability plume is expected to rapidly penetrate far inland, bringing with it an extremely fast onset of heavy snow and poor visibility that should extend northwest of a Muskegon to Clare line by the 9 AM time frame. This area of lake enhanced snow will expand very quickly so that by 1 PM its leading edge will extend approximately from the southwest tip of Lower Michigan to Lansing. Snowfall will be quite intense at this point across far southwest Lower MI. In fact, latest WPC guidance gives Grand Rapids 3-4 inches of snow between 1 PM and 7 PM Saturday. This is the kind of daytime snowfall rate one would expect in mid January instead of mid November. The contributing lake-induced fgen region mentioned previously now looks to be a bit more progressive than earlier thought thanks to the cold font moving in with more authority. Even so, it appears we should see a dominant and more purely lake effect band developing in its wake and persisting through much of Saturday night with heavy snowfall. Unfortunately, this band looks to be closely aligned with I-94, as is often the case in these scenarios. In contrast, areas farther north closer to US-10 we should see a gradual cessation of lake effect snow Saturday night around the same time things are staying interesting around I-94 as described above. In addition to accumulating snow through Saturday night, we are concerned about strong winds increasing the hazards of exposure to cold, poor visibility, and possibly drifting. Saturday`s daytime wind chills may actually be lowest over the southeast forecast area as this is where winds will be the strongest. Drifting of snow remains a concern, especially since we`ve already seen a hint of this here at the office. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 A few solid reports from overnight in NWMI. Not bad for 12 hrs event. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 423 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1134 AM HEAVY SNOW CENTRAL LAKE 45.07N 85.26W 11/18/2022 M24.0 INCH ANTRIM MI PUBLIC PUBLIC REPORT. 0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 ESE EAST JORDAN 45.15N 85.11W 11/18/2022 E24.0 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI PUBLIC 12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS Over 66" in some places. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Just had a very heavy snow shower come thru and dropped a quick 2" of snow. Now have a total of 11" on the ground here in my yard. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Here are some snow depth amounts from major reporting stations around the Great Lakes area at 7 AM November 19, 2022. Buffalo 11”. Grand Rapids 8” Marquette 6”. Lansing, Alpena, Duluth, Erie PA, and Rhinelander 5”. Flint, Madison WI 2” Green Bay and Rochester NY 1” Detroit and Sault Ste Marie trace. Chicago and Rockford IL 0. Remember this is at the locations airport and for the most part are the official amounts for that location. I have been getting on and off heavy snow showers here for the past 2 hours. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 NWS seeing exactly what I did on yesterday's 18z NAM: Attention will then turn to an arctic frontal boundary, projected to travel across SE MI between 19Z - 01Z. Snow chances turn likely along the boundary, with a period of scattered to numerous snow showers filling back in behind the front under a better push of caa with WNW flow. Frontogenetic forcing along the front with strong uvv from 1kft up through the DGZ will help extend convective depths up towards 10kft. This suggests linear squalls will be possible along the boundary which will be capable of producing a quick half-inch to inch of snowfall in a 30-60 min window. Rapid reductions to visibilities to a half-mile or less will also be possible under brief heavy snowfall, with aid from h850 wind speeds of 35-40 knots, which can briefly be pulled to the surface in snow activity. Behind the front, near surface lapse rates steepen to an impressive 8-9 C/km with building near surface potential instability. This will bring renewed chances for widely scattered to numerous snow showers with embedded convective squall potential, through Sunday morning. An additional half-inch to inch will be possible after the frontal passage with the more loosely organized snowfall. Localized higher amounts to 2+ inches remains achievable under heavier snow shower activity. 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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