Clinton Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Looks like an early start to Winter for @Iceresistance and @OKwx2k4 as an active southern stream interacts with some cold air. As @Tomhas been saying the STJ is going to play this year and Oklahoma (one of this years LRC hotspots) looks to land an early storm. Further north KC and mby look to be on the northern edge of this system, however a bit of an inverted trough will move through the middle of the country linking this storm to a weaker system coming out of the northern plains at about the same time. If only they could phase maybe next time. This feature could provide enough lift for much of Kan, MO, and Iowa to see some flakes fly and possibly an inch or 2 of snow. While the models have been inconsistent the 0z GFS has came back to it's original idea. 0z GEFS 18z EPS is a little stronger with the northern energy 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 I know! I've been watching this for a while now! Please don't forget to include @Black Hole! 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 This is a bit of a change this mornings GFS phases the 2 pieces of energy over the lakes, makes for an even bigger storm. GEFS 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 0z Euro is similar 6z EPS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 This morning's ICON and GFS are both more phased and nw with the system and bring decent snow across Iowa. 5 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: This morning's ICON and GFS are both more phased and nw with the system and bring decent snow across Iowa. Gets better with every run. For Oklahoma and KC peeps, the snow hitting at sunset and continuing through the overnight will help with some accumulation given the marginal temps. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Meanwhile, the GDPS (Canadian) continues to show no phasing at all. It has a dominant northern stream and a weak southern system that quickly shoots east, well to the south of the lakes. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Gets better with every run. For Oklahoma and KC peeps, the snow hitting at sunset and continuing through the overnight will help with some accumulation given the marginal temps. Yay! I'm less shafted. Hoping this phased solution is a real trend ofc. Need CMC onboard tho.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 The Euro continues to be onboard, although it has little snow down south in Oklahoma. 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 18z GFS showing a prolonged period of relatively light snow. Wow, winter kicking into full gear in a hurry. Will be fun to watch the models unfold over the weekend. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 18z GFS looks great for Oklahoma also 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 NOAA: High pressure is on schedule to build across the Great Lakes by Monday to start the week with dry weather. The high holds into Tuesday as the next low pressure system gathers organization over the Plains and Midwest. This large and intense system sweeps Gulf moisture northward which could reach Lower Mi as early as Tuesday afternoon in the form of a rain/snow mix. A heavier mix of rain and snow changing to all snow becomes possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as extended range models show the surface low center tracking nearby across NW Ohio, a track that makes the forecast for SE MI very sensitive to the small adjustments likely in upcoming forecast cycles. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 It's SNOWING OUTSIDE! 4 3 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Wow like @bud2380said we are heading into winter quickly. Seems much quicker than recent years and has more of that classic feel. This next week is looking pretty good up here at the MN home! MPX talking possibly 3-6" total from both rounds and then an Arctic front late week that may keep highs only in the teens! The first round of snow will lift northeast with the short wave by late Monday, then attention will turn to another wave across the southern Plains with quite a bit more moisture to work with. The cyclonic flow will be maintained across the north central states and will work to phase with the southern wave Monday night into Wednesday as it tracks northeast along or just north of the Ohio Valley. An inverted trough extending from system could bring moisture rather far northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday into early Wednesday. Forecast soundings again depict a saturated column with weak lift extending throughout the entire layer for a prolonged period of time. This would suggest widespread light snow, little or no banding, and uniform snowfall totals. NBM has issues with appropriately high PoPs in higher confidence/low QPF events, so it`ll be a task to increase them manually with each forecast issuance. Light winds and temperatures in the 20s could bring higher than normal snow ratios, but the lack of accumulation-efficient dendrites could prove detrimental for that potential. It should be noted ground temperatures will likely not be much of a factor due to continuous subfreezing air temperatures in the preceding 4 days. Soil temps at a 2 inch depth this afternoon are already near freezing. EPS and GEFS mean QPF for both events total between 1/4 and 1/2 inch, meaning we could end up with 3 to 6 inches over the 2 to 3 day period. An arctic front will push through late week, reinforcing the cold air in place. Highs could remain in the teens next Friday with lows in the single digits, especially if we can develop a snow pack. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 North Texas will see its first low in the 30’s tomorrow night. They’re calling for a low of 33. Some areas will hit freezing. Here we go. First freeze on the 12th? 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 This is pretty wild folks! Welcome to winter! As someone above said, it will be interesting to watch the models the next 48 hrs. It's been something like two decades since something like this down here.... Long time!! 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 OKC officially got .4 inches, that is HUGE for something that was expected to be a nonevent! I may have eeked out .1 inch 5 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Niko said: NOAA: High pressure is on schedule to build across the Great Lakes by Monday to start the week with dry weather. The high holds into Tuesday as the next low pressure system gathers organization over the Plains and Midwest. This large and intense system sweeps Gulf moisture northward which could reach Lower Mi as early as Tuesday afternoon in the form of a rain/snow mix. A heavier mix of rain and snow changing to all snow becomes possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as extended range models show the surface low center tracking nearby across NW Ohio, a track that makes the forecast for SE MI very sensitive to the small adjustments likely in upcoming forecast cycles. Here we go again with the "very sensitive to track" concerns. This area (Actual Wayne County not Oakland or Macomb) really struggles even in mid-winter with traditional S. Stream systems. The track is almost always too close. The only two CAT-5 storms for SMI both screwed-over this region in 67 and 78. You could add several more like Mar 73, Apr 75, Jan 79, GHD-1, and PV bliz of 2014. Oh yeah, plus NYE 07 and Dec 00. On the flipside, some of the better storm hits were in Dec '74, Jan '82, Jan '99, Jan '05 and ofc GHD-2. Almost 2:1 in favor of bad outcomes with stronger S. Stream systems unfortunately. Perhaps we will get cold enough this winter to buck those odds. Time will tell. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 0z GFS a little drier for the northern members, Oklahoma still does well. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Just now, Clinton said: 0z GFS a little drier for the northern members, Oklahoma still does well. Curses! It's just north of me for Oklahoma! 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Models were unkind overnight. Euro dried up significantly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 0z EPS...def shrunk the snow shield... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 GFS not backing down for Oklahoma, you guys sure have the hot hand right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 51 minutes ago, Clinton said: GFS not backing down for Oklahoma, you guys sure have the hot hand right now. This throws a band back over me in Central Nebraska. Would be a nice surprise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: This throws a band back over me in Central Nebraska. Would be a nice surprise. Yes and there is an inverted trough extending north from the southern energy that will move across your area and points east. Sometimes these types of storms can overperform. I think there is still a good chance a lot of us could see some accumulations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Returns look good over Central Indiana. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) 6z Euro control looking a little more phased, will be close call for KC to see there first inch of snow. The mean looks good for folks up north Edited November 12, 2022 by Clinton 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Tom said: 0z EPS...def shrunk the snow shield... I think it's just 5F degrees too warm - still. Coming off record heat's not helpful either. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 MPX really backed off on accumulations and now saying mainly just scattered snowshowers. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 12 hours ago, jaster220 said: Here we go again with the "very sensitive to track" concerns. This area (Actual Wayne County not Oakland or Macomb) really struggles even in mid-winter with traditional S. Stream systems. The track is almost always too close. The only two CAT-5 storms for SMI both screwed-over this region in 67 and 78. You could add several more like Mar 73, Apr 75, Jan 79, GHD-1, and PV bliz of 2014. Oh yeah, plus NYE 07 and Dec 00. On the flipside, some of the better storm hits were in Dec '74, Jan '82, Jan '99, Jan '05 and ofc GHD-2. Almost 2:1 in favor of bad outcomes with stronger S. Stream systems unfortunately. Perhaps we will get cold enough this winter to buck those odds. Time will tell. Blitz of 2014 was awesome. That snow really came down hard. Also, watch this wave inundate us next week w/ more than 6" on the models less than a day to go and tbh, I luv last sec upticks on models when it comes to snow accumulations. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Poorly-aligned energy and resultant lack of phasing has led most models to back off of snow for Iowa. The Euro is still trying to hold on. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Latest 12z NAM brings snow into the NE toward the end of it's run at 0z Wed 2 Quote All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County. There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science! Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" - 11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8") Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com. Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx National Weather Service SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 12z Euro a little better this run for E. Iowa and the Lakes bringing a prolonged period of light snow. Control: Mean: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 MPX afternoon disco sounds a bit more confident. Calling for 1-2" with each round (2 rounds) and that the GFS is too dry. Sounds like they are siding more with the Euro. Arctic blast Thursday with showshowers and only teens for highs Friday. Hello winter! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 hour ago, james1976 said: MPX afternoon disco sounds a bit more confident. Calling for 1-2" with each round (2 rounds) and that the GFS is too dry. Sounds like they are siding more with the Euro. Arctic blast Thursday with showshowers and only teens for highs Friday. Hello winter! EAX also sounds optimistic about some snow falling. It looks like I have a decent chance of seeing an inch maybe 2 on the grass. I'll gladly take it I'm ready for some wintery precip to go along with this cold weather, November has been great. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 KFOR has 2-3 inches for my location 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 18z Euro sends a 1-2 inch band right into KC. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro sends a 1-2 inch band right into KC. I get 1-3 inches from the 18z Euro 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I get 1-3 inches from the 18z Euro The KC office has a narrow 1-2 inch band right through mby. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 0z Euro came back with a better run for MN/E IA...might want to extend the dates on this thread to include the LES potential??? The Euro has good wind profiles over the western shores of our MI posters. Light it up! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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