Tom Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 0z GEFS...bullseye SW MI... @westMJim and maybe @Stacshwill come around and post some + and interesting feedback when its snowing in their backyard in whiteout conditions! Hope it verifies. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tom said: interesting feedback when its snowing in their backyard Of course I will post the snow fall amounts in MBY. There is a trace of snow on the ground here this AM. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 6z models still have some differences but are beginning to head towards an agreement. First accumulations for many on here! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 12z HRRR coming into range and is taking on the look of the Euro. @Jayhawker85 @someweatherdude @KCSmokey @MIKEKC first inch of snow for KC looking likely. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z HRRR coming into range and is taking on the look of the Euro. @Jayhawker85 @someweatherdude @KCSmokey @MIKEKC first inch of snow for KC looking likely. I would like to see temps colder on the future data runs, we would lose some accumulation due to temps right around 32-33. High temps Monday could reach 40-45, we'll see if they can bust like yesterday when my forecast high of 35 turned into 28 for a high. It would stick this morning, 15 degrees and a heavy frost here in KC, even frosted the bridges this morning with a layer of white. Beautiful winter look this morning. Let's go first snow of the season!!! Well, second one as I had a dusting last weekend after the 3 inches of rain. Active pattern the last 3 weeks... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 Detailed write up by EAX explaining how sensitive and uncertain temps still are as well as precipitation rates. Monday Night Through Tuesday: H5 heights sharply fall from the afternoon into the eveing hours on Monday as the trough begins to lift out of Texas and Oklahoma, and acquires a slight negative tilt. This should continue to align dCVA and WAA with the surface cyclone, allowing further deepening. The center of the surface cyclone is still focused directly along the Gulf coast, but convergence will extend as far northward as southern Nebraska and Iowa, along with an enhanced moisture axis from the preceding southerly flow ahead of this system. Q-vector and mass convergence continue to increase after 18z Monday, and this is where the precipitation will come into play. Initially, stratiform rain will be the dominant precipitation type as temperatures at the surface range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, and maybe even upper 40s in far southern Missouri. The lapse rates are not be robust, and there is very little in the way of instability. Therefore, will not expect any convective structure to the rain. Once the H5 trough axis lifts northeastward, strong CAA sweeps across the Plains into the region. With a saturated column, including the DGZ, expect a few hours of rain/snow mix transition that will move roughly from west to east. This is likely going to be noted across most of the forecast area, but some areas will see more rain and or snow than other areas. Amounts will be discussed in detail in just a little bit. With dewpoints likely around 30-32 degrees, expecting wetbulb temperatures near the surface to be around 31-33. These may go lower depending on how strong dynamic cooling becomes with precipitation drag. Eventually, the actual air temperatures should drop to around 30-32F across most of the forecast area, pretty close to the wetbulb temperatures. Therefore, a transition to all snow is expected. Again, most of the forecast area will likely see some kind of snow during this event. Now, for a discussion on what will control snow accumulations. In discussions over the last few nights, it was mentioned that the DGZ in model soundings, particularly from the deterministic GFS and NAM have demonstrated a moderately strong depth. The GFS was a little bit deeper, around 5kft. Ice introduction will not be an issue. However, lift through the DGZ while temperatures below it are cold enough to support snow is still in question. Currently, GFS and NAM soundings have their deepest DGZs prior to 06z, and negative omega values through them (strong lift). However, max air temperatures below the DGZ are still as high as +2C to +3C, and are above 0C at the surface. Despite this lift, it may be too warm to sustain frozen hydrometeors to allow for accumulating snowfall prior to 06z. The wild card will be where the wetbulb temperatures sit at. If they end just a degree or two warmer than what is depicted in current model soundings, most of the QPF will go into liquid rain in this period prior to 06z, eating into snowfall amounts. Another factor that is working against having sufficient snowfall rates for greater accumulations, is that there is currently no strong signal for frontogenesis, and insentropic cross section analysis from the GFS and NAM are showing moderately strong layers of static stability. Given the strength of mid-level vorticity with this system, it is somewhat surprising not to see a stronger signal for static instability in the cross-sections, but part of this may be because the surface cyclone is much further south, keeping most of the kinematic forcing across our forecast area above 850mb and away from the stronger thermal boundaries. With the lack of these snowfall rates drivers and their timing, current snowfall forecast has been trended toward the lower end of guidance. A quick note on snow ratios, with the increasing moisture throughout the column and the lack of these other enhancing factors, snow ratios are expected to be around 8:1 to 9:1 for most of the forecast area. Expect this to be a heavier, wetter snow once it eventually transitions to all snow. While both deterministic and ensemble mean solutions continue to be consistent on widespread rain and rain/snow mix into Tuesday Night, there is still disagreement on the placement of localized maxima in QPF, and thus localized maxima in snowfall accumulations. The ECMWF suite is currently the outlier with 00z guidance, as this places heaviest snowfall totals across Northern Missouri and into far southern Iowa. This solution also punches a dry slot earlier from eastern Kansas into Central Missouri (across the KC metro as well), slashing the QPF to just a few hundredths and just a dusting of snow. Given the amount of moisture transport expected and mid-level kinematic forcing for central and southern portions of the forecast area, ECMWF and its respective ensemble solutions do not appear to be the most representative at this time. The deterministic 00z NAM also attempts to punch drier air in eastern Kansas through Central Missouri, though not nearly as drastic as the ECMWF. Along with the GFS and GEFS mean, the NAM 00z NAM was producing at least an inch along and north of the Interstate 44 corridor. The GFS and GEFS 00z runs brought this a bit further north to areas just south of Interstate 70. As this discussion is being typed, the 06z NAM output is becoming available, and a quick glance is showing a drastic increase in QPF and snowfall amounts, with 2-3 inches for areas south of Interstate 70 and another band of 2-3 inches in northern Missouri. For right now, will not be trending the forecast in that direction. Will stick with what the 00z GFS/GEFS/NAM was depicting, with 1-2 inches in southern and southeastern portions of the forecast area, and about 0.5 to 1.0 inches elsewhere. The 12z CAM guidance today will fully cover this event. If this starts to show signals for things like stronger frontogenesis, better lift through the DGZ while temperatures are cold enough, or CSI release, then could start to explore enhanced snowfall rates and greater accumulations. But for right now, the guidance and data available still support the lower end totals as a better suited forecast. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 The GEFS and GFS are open to the idea of the main bullseye of 3-5 inches of snow in NW Oklahoma north of I-40 and west of I-35, but a secondary bullseye with 2-4 inches of snow in my general location east of I-35 and south of I-40. 2 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 MPX only calling for a couple inches throughout the week. Might be able to tack on a little more with the late week arctic blast. Winter is here regardless! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 52 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The GEFS and GFS are open to the idea of the main bullseye of 3-5 inches of snow in NW Oklahoma north of I-40 and west of I-35, but a secondary bullseye with 2-4 inches of snow in my general location east of I-35 and south of I-40. Yeah, in terms of totals down here, looking more like a shotgun pattern. Lol. I may get an inch or be in the hole that keeps showing up. This weather pattern is how surprises happen. Hence the write-up Clinton posted. I love it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Not liking this current trend at all. "Shortwave ejecting northeast from OK Monday night takes on a negative tilt before eventually opening up and shearing out over the GrtLks Rgn on Tuesday." 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 I'm not real excited about this. It will be a long-duration, on and off, light snow, with a temp rising into the 30s Tuesday. It will likely have trouble sticking, especially on pavement. It's only mid November and it will be nice just to see it snow and stick a bit. That's good enough. I'm happy to save real snow for winter. 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 36 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Not liking this current trend at all. "Shortwave ejecting northeast from OK Monday night takes on a negative tilt before eventually opening up and shearing out over the GrtLks Rgn on Tuesday." That's kinda been happening alot lately your way. I don't like that trend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Models not looking to bad, I'll be excited to see some flakes fly and maybe a little on the ground during this long lasting cold spell. The snow will fall at the perfect time to stick with the marginal temps. EAX leaning in the direction of the GFS for accumulations. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Models not looking to bad, I'll be excited to see some flakes fly and maybe a little on the ground during this long lasting cold spell. The snow will fall at the perfect time to stick with the marginal temps. EAX leaning in the direction of the GFS for accumulations. The snowflake contest may come to a end before the deadline is even up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: I'm not real excited about this. It will be a long-duration, on and off, light snow, with a temp rising into the 30s Tuesday. It will likely have trouble sticking, especially on pavement. It's only mid November and it will be nice just to see it snow and stick a bit. That's good enough. I'm happy to save real snow for winter. I agree! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Not a very organized system once it arrives here in SMI, but, I'll take a little light snow w/ a coating to an inch on grassy surfaces for this time of the year. Looks like the main show will be Tuesday nite here w/ any mix going over to all snow. It will definitely put a lot in the holiday spirit. Also, the arctic front by weeks end will put a real drop in temps. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Looking a bit better with the MPX afternoon AFD. Sounds like 2-5 inches by Tuesday night and NWS is saying significant travel impacts due to it being the first widespread snowfall. Looks like a couple rounds. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 My first WWA of the season for me and the rest of the KC group. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 251 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 KSZ025-057-102>105-MOZ002>006-011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-043- 044-141700- /O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0010.221115T0200Z-221115T1300Z/ Atchison KS-Miami-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess- Grundy-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Platte-Clay-Ray- Carroll-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO- Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Wathena, Elwood, Troy, Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee, Lenexa, Maryville, Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City, Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Mound City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Kearney, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, and Warrensburg 251 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and north central, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.= 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 0z Euro and NAM have 1-4 inch amounts for many on here. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 6z GFS with good LES and a good hit for parts of Oklahoma 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 This graphic is the epitome of a "Split Flow" combine with an active #STJ...makes me giddy seeing this advertised both here in AZ and back home on the wx graphics! For all the LRC followers, you can't deny this is will likely be an Exhibit of the LRC. PHX... WGN... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Flagstaff, AZ officially reported 0.3" of snow yesterday but the downtown area had 1.2". The trough rolled on through nad took a bit of a northerly track so it really didn't have that much moisture to work with. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Parts of SW Oklahoma is now under a Winter Storm Warning for up to 6 inches of snow! 1 2 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 A couple of inches of snow looking likely here for SMI (1-3) for now. Not too shabby. Temps are currently in the mid 20s under crystal clear skies. Look what happens afterwards: A strong northwest flow shortwave/arctic intrusion will lead to an excitement of the Lake effect late Thursday and Friday. Depending on timing and strength of shortwave could be looking at an active period as any snow accumulation should be impactful given cold temperatures that could be in the teens and 20s. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: 0z Euro and NAM have 1-4 inch amounts for many on here. Except the Nebraska snow hole. Kind of amazing, but we've seen it so many times you get sort of numb to it. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Darn it, I think KC gets 3 inches of snow worth the precipitation, temps aren't going to work out it appears. Latest 12Z HRRR never gets us below freezing and has several hours of rain before snow. Down to about a 1/2 inch or so of snow on this run.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I'm starting to feel your pain, and I haven't even been here that long. This pattern is just not good for bringing significant moisture into NE/S SD. Hopefully after the pattern resets there can be some slight adjustments to change that aspect of it. Otherwise it's going to be a very long, frustrating winter. Unfortunately, we just had one of those. One of the driest winters in history, 2021-2022. Two in a row would be be devastating for the agricultural industry that is already struggling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 @Tom nice LES showing up for Chicago on the HRRR. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Snowing pretty hard up here! Eyeballing atleast an inch so far. Roads are a mess 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Snowy AM commute tomorrow for many. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 3k NAM shows it snowing well into Wednesday as well. Should be a fun scene, even if snow totals end up light. This is Kuchera, but given the long duration light nature of this snow, I would think this could be a little overdone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 NWS just expanded the WWA across the TC metro! Now calling for 2-4" 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: @Tom nice LES showing up for Chicago on the HRRR. Looks great but I don’t believe it bc it runs to cold and it’s way to early in the season for those closer to the warm lake. Nice to see tho! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 GFS with some impressive totals in southern MN. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 FV3 - definitely a strong signal of a heavier band of snow setting up through central Iowa into south central MN up to the Twin Citites. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 15z RAP similar 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Yeah the 2nd round is looking a bit better up here in the TC Eyeballing at least 2" right now. Flakes are smaller. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 I'm praying for some more oomph outta this thing when turns north. Will be interesting. Right now I'm at a forecast of 0-1 inch. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 UK also very similar to other models painting that stripe of snow in an N/S line from central Iowa to the TCs. Incredible model consistency for such a narrow snow band. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: GFS with some impressive totals in southern MN. Brutal early season UHI/Lake Shadowing for both Chicago (nobody there anyways so NBD) and Detroit Metro where I fight both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair effects. As said about a month ago - COME ON COLD! Seriously tho, this region scores best on late winter events for that very reason so it's not unusual, just annoying as h*ll 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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