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11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow


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26 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Brutal early season UHI/Lake Shadowing for both Chicago (nobody there anyways so NBD) and Detroit Metro where I fight both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair effects. As said about a month ago - COME ON COLD! Seriously tho, this region scores best on late winter events for that very reason so it's not unusual, just annoying as h*ll

LOT mentioned in their disco that heavier rates may overcome but we know how difficult that is unless you have a stout HP seeding bitter cold this early in the season.

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Here we go: From GRR

 

--HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--     IDEAL SET-UP WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO SEE SOME   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS. DEEP   UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH NEAR RECORD COLD SWEEPING IN   FROM THE WEST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. THE LK MI   WATER TEMP IS STILL NEAR 10C AT THE SRN BUOY WHICH WOULD CREATE   EXTREME INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY WHEN AIR COLDER THAN -15C IS   ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

 

 
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7 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Here we go: From GRR

 

--HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--     IDEAL SET-UP WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO SEE SOME   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS. DEEP   UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH NEAR RECORD COLD SWEEPING IN   FROM THE WEST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. THE LK MI   WATER TEMP IS STILL NEAR 10C AT THE SRN BUOY WHICH WOULD CREATE   EXTREME INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY WHEN AIR COLDER THAN -15C IS   ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

 

 

Yeah, those latest NAM maps looked impressive, even if reduced by 30% - Good Luck over there where the West is the best part of The Mitt!

 

Suddenly, DTX is much more upbeat??

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
301 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

.DISCUSSION...

A rather wintry pattern is expected through the rest of the week
into the weekend with increasingly cold air and several periods of
accumulating snow expected.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

LOT mentioned in their disco that heavier rates may overcome but we know how difficult that is unless you have a stout HP seeding bitter cold this early in the season.

Which Chiberia can get. Over here I get polar air very modified by the 2 upstream GL's. Explains how/why Motown's greatest storm was at the end of winter (technically MET Spring).

At any rate, glad to see things ticking UP as this draws closer (for all involved)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Which Chiberia can get. Over here I get polar air very modified by the 2 upstream GL's. Explains how/why Motown's greatest storm was at the end of winter (technically MET Spring).

At any rate, glad to see things ticking UP as this draws closer (for all involved)

LOT suggesting they may Bust to Low with snowfall totals near the Lake.  Very interesting set up and I'm very curious to see how this evolves.  I'd love to see this kind of system repeat a few times this winter.

Quote
In fact, lake temperatures of +10
to +11C and 850mb temperatures of -6 to -7C as well as inversion
heights pushing 11,000-12,000 feet will generate as much as 250-350
J/kg of lake-induced CAPE from late Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday morning, leading to concern that lake enhancement to snow
may "overachieve" in spite of marginal surface temperatures.
Interestingly, the 12Z HREF shows splotchy 20-30% probabilities of
snow rates >1"/hr between 2-3 PM Tuesday and 3-4 AM Wednesday across
the northern Chicago suburbs. Perhaps more concerning is the 12Z
HREF 24-hour local probability-matched mean QPF of 0.75-1.00" across
Lake, Cook, and northeastern DuPage counties. When applying a
standard 10:1 snow ratio, it`s easy to see how snow totals may get
out of hand. However, without a persistent band hitting the same
area for hours and hours, it may be tough to truly realize the
snowfall amounts advertised by individual high resolution CAMs that
inform the HREF. For now, we will cautiously advertise an additional
2-3 inches of snow on top of what falls in the morning keeping in
mind our forecast may be way too low.

 

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

LOT suggesting they may Bust to Low with snowfall totals near the Lake.  Very interesting set up and I'm very curious to see how this evolves.  I'd love to see this kind of system repeat a few times this winter.

 

In other words...."we're nowcasting this one folks!" Lol. 

Pretty awesome dynamics off the lake there, I'd say!

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

LOT suggesting they may Bust to Low with snowfall totals near the Lake.  Very interesting set up and I'm very curious to see how this evolves.  I'd love to see this kind of system repeat a few times this winter.

 

It's awesome when the offices are playing catch-up with the dynamics in play. We're all too familiar with it doing the opposite too often. I mentioned how old school wx "rules of thumb" were screaming early winter incoming, and it's about to happen for most if not all of us. In all the years here in this forum, I may have seen @OKwx2k4 post 2 or at the most 3 images of snow at his place. Here we are in literally the first week/days of this season and he's already getting hit! 

When nature aligns itself, it will happen. Nov 22, 2015, was the epitome of such happenings. I'm still just expecting white RN here as DTX is hyped mostly for @Niko's area and north. We'll see if some of that ORD magic can rub off over here in DTWville?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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11 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Except the Nebraska snow hole.  Kind of amazing, but we've seen it so many times you get sort of numb to it.

I have never seen such a consistently miserable pattern for precipitation in our area... and worse yet, it shows no sign of changing at all. 

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It will get very interesting here after this system passes on through S MI. More accumulating snows a good possibility and it could be quite snowy from Thursday right into early Saturday. Also, there is a chance that my area w/ this Tuesday nite/ Wed system might need to get an WWA, probably w/ the 4am package or so. A (2-3inch is a real good possibility) and then the fun starts Thursday into Saturday w/ that Lake Effect developing. Looks like a real snowy week shaping up here. Finally, that arctic air will still be around until early next week. Very cold temps over the weekend w/ single digits nighttime temps not outta the question w/ all of that snowcover around. Great start so far to November and mid November is the best time to get active (week or so b4 Thanksgiving) , anything earlier than that is too early in my book.

NOAA:

Expect an increase in snow shower activity heading into the Thursday
evening period with lake effect snow bands from Lake Michigan then
organizing and spreading into parts of Southeast Lower Michigan on
through Friday and to some degree into Saturday as well. The west to
southwest trajectory expected suggests that banding will be most
concentrated in the I-696 to M-59 corridors initially late Thursday
with activity becoming more focused M-59 to I-69 during the course
of Thursday night into Friday and then further north into the
Saginaw Valley into Saturday. Given the degree of cold air that
sweeps into the area, some of this snow band activity could be
rather intense at times.

 

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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TAFs update from GRR looking legit:

 IFR and LIFR conditions are likely during the bulk of
the afternoon and early evening hours as ceilings try to trend
towards 1,000 feet and visibilities trend towards 1 mile. We may
need to trend TAFs more pessimistic in later issuance`s, in terms
of ceilings below 1,000 feet and vsbys below 1 mile.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, Niko said:

It will get very interesting here after this system passes on through S MI. More accumulating snows a good possibility and it could be quite snowy from Thursday right into early Saturday. Also, there is a chance that my area w/ this Tuesday nite/ Wed system might need to get an WWA, probably w/ the 4am package or so. A (2-3inch is a real good possibility) and then the fun starts Thursday into Saturday w/ that Lake Effect developing. Looks like a real snowy week shaping up here. Finally, that arctic air will still around until early next week. Very cold temps over the weekend w/ single digits nighttime temps not outta the question w/ all of that snowcover around. Great start so far to November and mid November is the best time to get active (week or so b4 Thanksgiving) , anything earlier than that is too early in my book.

NOAA:

Expect an increase in snow shower activity heading into the Thursday
evening period with lake effect snow bands from Lake Michigan then
organizing and spreading into parts of Southeast Lower Michigan on
through Friday and to some degree into Saturday as well. The west to
southwest trajectory expected suggests that banding will be most
concentrated in the I-696 to M-59 corridors initially late Thursday
with activity becoming more focused M-59 to I-69 during the course
of Thursday night into Friday and then further north into the
Saginaw Valley into Saturday. Given the degree of cold air that
sweeps into the area, some of this snow band activity could be
rather intense at times.

 

 

 

Looks like all this early action will again be "just north" of me (like Saturday's was "just south" lol). So far, this is just a continuation of last winter for mby. Maybe it turns a corner as we get deeper into the cold. Need an I-94 winter like 13-14, or at least a W to E slider like Jan 22, 2005

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like all this early action will again be "just north" of me (like Saturday's was "just south" lol). So far, this is just a continuation of last winter for mby. Maybe it turns a corner as we get deeper into the cold. Need an I-94 winter like 13-14, or at least a W to E slider like Jan 22, 2005

The cold air could win out for your area and you get to see more snows. Wait till tomorrow and you could be seeing changes in your forecast. But yes, its funny how you get sandwiched in between systems.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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19 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Snow has started here as well with the temp of 35. Hopefully the temps will drop a couple degrees and the snow picks up so we can get some accumulations

Temps have been slow to drop here also, getting moderate snow with a temp of 36.

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11 minutes ago, Niko said:

The cold air could win out for your area and you get to see more snows. Wait till tomorrow and you could be seeing changes in your forecast. But yes, its funny how you get sandwiched in between systems.

Hopeful for the best ofc, but I'm on such a long losing streak I need a "pick me up" event. To be fair, last Thanksgiving weekend's rather potent WWA event did jackpot DTW and it wasn't much less here. Too bad that was about the highlight of the entire winter. Not wishing to be the SEMI version of @tStacsh I shall attempt to remain more positive until the results align themselves. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It is STILL snowing here in the TC. It never quit. Been snowing lightly since the main event. Prolly only added up to a couple more tenths but I'm impressed it just keeps going. Radar actually filled back in around the metro. I see IA is getting some returns up into the central part of the state. Maybe we are starting to see some phasing. 

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Per the 12k NAM, I may have a very brief chance to see some flakes falling around 8-9 am. The rest of the day it keeps Wayne all rain with literally the snow line just north at Oakland county line. Finally brings temps down to finish as a couple hours of snow by 6 am Wednesday. Thursday evening's polar front actually looks like a better shot at seeing some colder snow falling and sticking. 

Look quick tomorrow am b4 you missed it in N Wayne:

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_14.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not sure what GRR used for this future radar graphic but it keeps it snow over Detroit area. Hmm..

Tab4FileL.png?90fb32c0a3ac6cf3f5d562c68c

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

It is STILL snowing here in the TC. It never quit. Been snowing lightly since the main event. Prolly only added up to a couple more tenths but I'm impressed it just keeps going. Radar actually filled back in around the metro. I see IA is getting some returns up into the central part of the state. Maybe we are starting to see some phasing. 

Actually finally stopped snowing here. Bummer. Thought maybe it would continue 🤣 Nice long duration event though. 

On to round 2!

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DVN has an evening update saying models are trending drier due to weak forcing and dry air, so this event may be lighter than earlier expected.  I never expected more than an inch in the first place.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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