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11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow


Clinton

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models are saying 3-4" here in C.IA just W of DSM. We will see. Flake size is going to have to improve if that is going to happen.  Probably 3/4" on grassy areas as I drove into work. But this is over performing HRRR and RAP thus far.... Not big expectations for the first snow of the season... but take what nature throws down that's for sure!!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Light snow is still falling this morning but it's melting faster than its falling now with a temp of 32.  I don't think I ever had more than a 1 inch on the ground at any given time.  It was good to see snow fall again and it has left a nice coating on the grass and trees.  NWS office may have gotten a little more.

0nJUMs1r_normal.jpg

 
1.3" of snow here at the office in Pleasant Hill, MO so far. Still snowing as of midnight.
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14 minutes ago, westMJim said:

That is a rather unusual wind defection for Lake effect. I wonder how often over the years that has happened.

Having spent a lot of time up there over years ice fishing/ winter camping etc. - about 3-4 times a winter. More than you think.  The great storm of early JAN 1994 was mainly lake effect- The folllowing are MN records - and occurred at Finland,MN (more specific than just Lake County)--

Most snow, 24 hours 36 inches (91 cm) January 7, 1994 Lake County
Most snow, one storm 47 inches (119 cm) January 6–8, 1994 Lake County
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Officially 2" at KDSM for the event- -- 1.6" since midnight. Slowly starting to stick on concrete but one tell the latent heat remaining (69F just 5 days ago) . 4" soil depths are still just slightly above 0C so slow melting is occurring even on grassy areas.

1.6" was .19 of liquid . So about 8.5:1 ratio.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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@jaster220, even though the closed low that tracked into the S Plains yesterday is beginning to weaken, I don't mind to see the Double Barrel Low that is forming and will ultimately lead into a long duration event over the GL's/OHV.  The blocking south of Hudson Bay is a prime location to slow down systems and "seed the cold" as we move into the heart of winter.

image.gif

The 2 separate low's (Gulf States and MW) is something I've seen a couple times already since OCT over our region and it's showing me that this will create long duration events more often than not this season.  I'm diggin' it my man!

1206z.jpg

 

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Persistent Light snow here.  Should see an inch or 2 out of this on elevated surfaces.  Day time will limit accumulation.  Roads should stay just wet all day.  Decent start.  Funny enough, Nov 15th is the average the last 30 years of first trace of snow.  And here we are.  

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@jaster220Radar shows all snow for Detroit, currently under a dry slot, but a nice batch from the south is making a b-line north towards us.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 34F w very light snow, but should pick up soon, especially tanite. Couple of inches looking very likely.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Light snow leading to pixy dust blowing around. Gives me a nice winter feel at least! The ground temp is plenty cold as there is no melting what so ever. It's almost tundra like with how cold we have been. Nov. might go down as one of the coldest in recent memory. Now hopefully we can get something good moving forward this year! 

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3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Maybe not as heavy as this event, but lake enhancement happens with almost every clipper up that way as well.

In east Michigan there is a lot of lake enhancement with a east and northeast wind off Lake Huron. And true lake effect with a east and north east wind. In the thumb with a north wind but seldom in November more so in late December and January. Anyway it is good to know that in the arrow head area a south and southeast wind can also produce a good lake effect. Here in my area the best lake effect happens with a W or WSW and WNW wind  and almost no lake effect with a NW wind.

 

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

@jaster220Radar shows all snow for Detroit, currently under a dry slot, but a nice batch from the south is making a b-line north towards us.

Stepped out at 7:15 to -SN and roofs cars and grass coated so technically I'm "on the board" with 0.1" for the season. Over-acheiver in mby for sure! At least we're lowering soil temps.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It did a lot drizzling today in the city. Had a briefly decent flip to sizeable flakes, but it stopped about as quickly as it started. Was nice to look at while it lasted. Some more almost snow has been falling this evening at 34F. Had a little "wiper pile" on my windshield and pinging of the face. Will be forced to ditch the shoulder season jacket by Friday with temps going solid winter on us. Glad for all that measured snow outta this. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Aviation update says I will have to be on the lookout to increase my event total:

Intervals of higher intensity snow post nightfall could
result in accumulation of 1 inch or less on unpaved surfaces and
elevated surfaces during the evening peak as temperature struggles
to remain above freezing. IFR conditions gradually transition into
MVFR as snow ends and westerly wind increases toward sunrise.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and Wednesday.

* High for snow precipitation type tonight.
 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Light snow atm. Grass surfaces have a light coating. Temp at 33F and the radar looks good w a decent amount of moisture.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Going to squeeze another inch out of this-! maybe more if radar trends continue. 3.3" for the event and it looks like the dead of winter out there right now with a fluffier snow falling and blowing around!!

image.thumb.png.b2b8fb10d4f6a440cf0a246957a29cb0.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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And there is this-  a warm up no doubt is coming and I think lasts longer than many think, but i don't think a DEC like 2014 is coming  when DEC laid a an egg after a memorable Nov. I think after the 10th it's more like Dec of 2008 / 2010.

000
SXUS73 KDMX 160811
RERDSM

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1256 AM CST WED NOV 16 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT DES MOINES IA...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 2.7 INCHES WAS SET AT DES MOINES IA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.0 INCHES SET IN 2014. 

THIS IS A CORRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS RECORD STATEMENT SENT EARLIER 
WHICH WAS THE 24HR SNOWFALL, NOT THE DAILY TOTAL. THE DAILY SNOWFALL 
YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 15TH, 2022 WAS 2.7 INCHES WHICH STILL SETS A NEW 
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD AT DES MOINES.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The first snow of the season in KC was a minor one. Most of the city saw less than a half inch and most of it was gone by 10am yesterday morning. I think it snowed 2 inches, just too warm as temps stayed around 33-34. I had just enough to make it look wintry outside.

Cold the next few days and it appears that we will start the warm-up this weekend and head right into a warmer pattern all of next week. Storm? GFS had one, but, its gone on the current data. 

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20 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

The first snow of the season in KC was a minor one. Most of the city saw less than a half inch and most of it was gone by 10am yesterday morning. I think it snowed 2 inches, just too warm as temps stayed around 33-34. I had just enough to make it look wintry outside.

Cold the next few days and it appears that we will start the warm-up this weekend and head right into a warmer pattern all of next week. Storm? GFS had one, but, its gone on the current data. 

I heard Lezak say they will be doing their winter forecast on the 30th.  Sign of cycle 2 have been showing up in the long range just after Thanksgiving.  It would be nice to get another storm or 2 into the pattern.

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16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I heard Lezak say they will be doing their winter forecast on the 30th.  Sign of cycle 2 have been showing up in the long range just after Thanksgiving.  It would be nice to get another storm or 2 into the pattern.

This is what i was referring to the other day. I would love for another good storm or 2 in the pattern through the Midwest with this pattern. I’m not overly encouraged with this weather pattern for winter in the kc region with this LRC

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