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11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow


Clinton
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Not liking this current trend at all. 

"Shortwave ejecting northeast from OK Monday night takes on a negative tilt before eventually opening up and shearing out over the GrtLks Rgn on Tuesday." 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm not real excited about this.  It will be a long-duration, on and off, light snow, with a temp rising into the 30s Tuesday.  It will likely have trouble sticking, especially on pavement.  It's only mid November and it will be nice just to see it snow and stick a bit.  That's good enough.  I'm happy to save real snow for winter.

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season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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36 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not liking this current trend at all. 

"Shortwave ejecting northeast from OK Monday night takes on a negative tilt before eventually opening up and shearing out over the GrtLks Rgn on Tuesday." 

That's kinda been happening alot lately your way.  I don't like that trend.

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Models not looking to bad, I'll be excited to see some flakes fly and maybe a little on the ground during this long lasting cold spell.  The snow will fall at the perfect time to stick with the marginal temps.  EAX leaning in the direction of the GFS for accumulations.

Tab2FileL.png

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Models not looking to bad, I'll be excited to see some flakes fly and maybe a little on the ground during this long lasting cold spell.  The snow will fall at the perfect time to stick with the marginal temps.  EAX leaning in the direction of the GFS for accumulations.

Tab2FileL.png

The snowflake contest may come to a end before the deadline is even up 

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm not real excited about this.  It will be a long-duration, on and off, light snow, with a temp rising into the 30s Tuesday.  It will likely have trouble sticking, especially on pavement.  It's only mid November and it will be nice just to see it snow and stick a bit.  That's good enough.  I'm happy to save real snow for winter.

I agree!

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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Not a very organized system once it arrives here in SMI, but, I'll take a little light snow w/ a coating to an inch on grassy surfaces for this time of the year. Looks like the main show will be Tuesday nite here w/ any mix going over to all snow. It will definitely put a lot in the holiday spirit.

Also, the arctic front by weeks end will put a real drop in temps.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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My first WWA of the season for me and the rest of the KC group.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
251 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

KSZ025-057-102>105-MOZ002>006-011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-043-
044-141700-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0010.221115T0200Z-221115T1300Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-
Grundy-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Platte-Clay-Ray-
Carroll-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Wathena, Elwood, Troy, Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth,
Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe,
Shawnee, Lenexa, Maryville, Grant City, Albany, Stanberry,
King City, Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Mound City, Oregon,
Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa,
Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale,
Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph,
Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo,
Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside,
Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs,
Kearney, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Kansas City, Independence,
Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Belton, Raymore,
Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, and Warrensburg
251 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to
  two inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.=

Map of Forecast Area

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This graphic is the epitome of a "Split Flow" combine with an active #STJ...makes me giddy seeing this advertised both here in AZ and back home on the wx graphics!  For all the LRC followers, you can't deny this is will likely be an Exhibit of the LRC.

PHX...

1.png

 

 

WGN...

1.webp

 

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A couple of inches of snow looking likely here for SMI (1-3) for now. Not too shabby.

Temps are currently in the mid 20s under crystal clear skies.

 

Look what happens afterwards:

A strong northwest flow shortwave/arctic intrusion will lead to an
excitement of the Lake effect late Thursday and Friday. Depending on
timing and strength of shortwave could be looking at an active
period as any snow accumulation should be impactful given cold
temperatures that could be in the teens and 20s.
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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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17 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Except the Nebraska snow hole.  Kind of amazing, but we've seen it so many times you get sort of numb to it.

I'm starting to feel your pain, and I haven't even been here that long. This pattern is just not good for bringing significant moisture into NE/S SD. Hopefully after the pattern resets there can be some slight adjustments to change that aspect of it. Otherwise it's going to be a very long, frustrating winter.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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40 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm starting to feel your pain, and I haven't even been here that long. This pattern is just not good for bringing significant moisture into NE/S SD. Hopefully after the pattern resets there can be some slight adjustments to change that aspect of it. Otherwise it's going to be a very long, frustrating winter.

Unfortunately, we just had one of those.  One of the driest winters in history, 2021-2022.  Two in a row would be be devastating for the agricultural industry that is already struggling.  

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20 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Unfortunately, we just had one of those.  One of the driest winters in history, 2021-2022.  Two in a row would be be devastating for the agricultural industry that is already struggling.  

Yeah Sioux Falls only recorded 19.9 inches of snow last winter when our average is 45 inches. Almost half of that fell in one storm on 12/10/21. Just a remarkably horrible winter season. Let's hope we can break that this go around!

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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12z Canadian remains among the snowier models along with it's higher resolution brothers. In fact it increased totals vs it's 00z run. Looks like it's mainly due to this model showing more moisture with the arctic front later this week. It also brings another system through on Saturday. 

Sure hope somehow this can be right and all the other models showing < 1 inch are somehow wrong. Not holding my breath but maybe just maybe!

1669053600-tLooyJxe7z8.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

GFS with some impressive totals in southern MN.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Brutal early season UHI/Lake Shadowing for both Chicago (nobody there anyways so NBD) and Detroit Metro where I fight both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair effects. As said about a month ago - COME ON COLD! Seriously tho, this region scores best on late winter events for that very reason so it's not unusual, just annoying as h*ll

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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26 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Brutal early season UHI/Lake Shadowing for both Chicago (nobody there anyways so NBD) and Detroit Metro where I fight both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair effects. As said about a month ago - COME ON COLD! Seriously tho, this region scores best on late winter events for that very reason so it's not unusual, just annoying as h*ll

LOT mentioned in their disco that heavier rates may overcome but we know how difficult that is unless you have a stout HP seeding bitter cold this early in the season.

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Here we go: From GRR

 

--HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--     IDEAL SET-UP WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO SEE SOME   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS. DEEP   UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH NEAR RECORD COLD SWEEPING IN   FROM THE WEST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. THE LK MI   WATER TEMP IS STILL NEAR 10C AT THE SRN BUOY WHICH WOULD CREATE   EXTREME INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY WHEN AIR COLDER THAN -15C IS   ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

 

 
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7 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Here we go: From GRR

 

--HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--     IDEAL SET-UP WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO SEE SOME   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS. DEEP   UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH NEAR RECORD COLD SWEEPING IN   FROM THE WEST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. THE LK MI   WATER TEMP IS STILL NEAR 10C AT THE SRN BUOY WHICH WOULD CREATE   EXTREME INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY WHEN AIR COLDER THAN -15C IS   ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

 

 

Yeah, those latest NAM maps looked impressive, even if reduced by 30% - Good Luck over there where the West is the best part of The Mitt!

 

Suddenly, DTX is much more upbeat??

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
301 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

.DISCUSSION...

A rather wintry pattern is expected through the rest of the week
into the weekend with increasingly cold air and several periods of
accumulating snow expected.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

LOT mentioned in their disco that heavier rates may overcome but we know how difficult that is unless you have a stout HP seeding bitter cold this early in the season.

Which Chiberia can get. Over here I get polar air very modified by the 2 upstream GL's. Explains how/why Motown's greatest storm was at the end of winter (technically MET Spring).

At any rate, glad to see things ticking UP as this draws closer (for all involved)

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Which Chiberia can get. Over here I get polar air very modified by the 2 upstream GL's. Explains how/why Motown's greatest storm was at the end of winter (technically MET Spring).

At any rate, glad to see things ticking UP as this draws closer (for all involved)

LOT suggesting they may Bust to Low with snowfall totals near the Lake.  Very interesting set up and I'm very curious to see how this evolves.  I'd love to see this kind of system repeat a few times this winter.

Quote
In fact, lake temperatures of +10
to +11C and 850mb temperatures of -6 to -7C as well as inversion
heights pushing 11,000-12,000 feet will generate as much as 250-350
J/kg of lake-induced CAPE from late Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday morning, leading to concern that lake enhancement to snow
may "overachieve" in spite of marginal surface temperatures.
Interestingly, the 12Z HREF shows splotchy 20-30% probabilities of
snow rates >1"/hr between 2-3 PM Tuesday and 3-4 AM Wednesday across
the northern Chicago suburbs. Perhaps more concerning is the 12Z
HREF 24-hour local probability-matched mean QPF of 0.75-1.00" across
Lake, Cook, and northeastern DuPage counties. When applying a
standard 10:1 snow ratio, it`s easy to see how snow totals may get
out of hand. However, without a persistent band hitting the same
area for hours and hours, it may be tough to truly realize the
snowfall amounts advertised by individual high resolution CAMs that
inform the HREF. For now, we will cautiously advertise an additional
2-3 inches of snow on top of what falls in the morning keeping in
mind our forecast may be way too low.

 

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  • Clinton changed the title to 11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow
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