11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow

[Niko]

Light snow atm. Grass surfaces have a light coating. Temp at 33F and the radar looks good w a decent amount of moisture.

 

[Madtown]

Light snow all day, around 3" on the ground...looks like winter thats for sure!

[Grizzcoat]

Going to squeeze another inch out of this-! maybe more if radar trends continue. 3.3" for the event and it looks like the dead of winter out there right now with a fluffier snow falling and blowing around!!

[Grizzcoat]

And there is this-  a warm up no doubt is coming and I think lasts longer than many think, but i don't think a DEC like 2014 is coming  when DEC laid a an egg after a memorable Nov. I think after the 10th it's more like Dec of 2008 / 2010.

000
SXUS73 KDMX 160811
RERDSM

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1256 AM CST WED NOV 16 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT DES MOINES IA...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 2.7 INCHES WAS SET AT DES MOINES IA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.0 INCHES SET IN 2014. 

THIS IS A CORRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS RECORD STATEMENT SENT EARLIER 
WHICH WAS THE 24HR SNOWFALL, NOT THE DAILY TOTAL. THE DAILY SNOWFALL 
YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 15TH, 2022 WAS 2.7 INCHES WHICH STILL SETS A NEW 
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD AT DES MOINES.

[bud2380]

A nice snow band has setup right along the I-80 corridor from around Iowa City to Davenport. Looking outside it looks like we got about an inch of snow on grassy surfaces and it’s still snowing decent. 

[Iceresistance]

Posted this Yesterday

 

[MIKEKC]

The first snow of the season in KC was a minor one. Most of the city saw less than a half inch and most of it was gone by 10am yesterday morning. I think it snowed 2 inches, just too warm as temps stayed around 33-34. I had just enough to make it look wintry outside.

Cold the next few days and it appears that we will start the warm-up this weekend and head right into a warmer pattern all of next week. Storm? GFS had one, but, its gone on the current data. 

[james1976]

It is STILL snowing lightly. This has to be at least 3 days in a row that it is snowing. Temp dropped a couple degrees overnight and it looks like we have more accumulation. I'll have to go measure in a while. Trees are all covered. Looks like a winter wonderland!

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

The first snow of the season in KC was a minor one. Most of the city saw less than a half inch and most of it was gone by 10am yesterday morning. I think it snowed 2 inches, just too warm as temps stayed around 33-34. I had just enough to make it look wintry outside.

Cold the next few days and it appears that we will start the warm-up this weekend and head right into a warmer pattern all of next week. Storm? GFS had one, but, its gone on the current data. 

I heard Lezak say they will be doing their winter forecast on the 30th.  Sign of cycle 2 have been showing up in the long range just after Thanksgiving.  It would be nice to get another storm or 2 into the pattern.

[Jayhawker85]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I heard Lezak say they will be doing their winter forecast on the 30th.  Sign of cycle 2 have been showing up in the long range just after Thanksgiving.  It would be nice to get another storm or 2 into the pattern.

This is what i was referring to the other day. I would love for another good storm or 2 in the pattern through the Midwest with this pattern. I’m not overly encouraged with this weather pattern for winter in the kc region with this LRC

[james1976]

Measured another 1.3" from overnight and I'm sure that had compacted some. I think we have prolly had a good 6" over the last few days.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up another 1.1" overnight.  My two-day snow total is a respectable 2.5".  Of course, half of yesterday's snow melted, so there is not 2.5" on the ground.

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

And there is this-  a warm up no doubt is coming and I think lasts longer than many think, but i don't think a DEC like 2014 is coming  when DEC laid a an egg after a memorable Nov. I think after the 10th it's more like Dec of 2008 / 2010.

000
SXUS73 KDMX 160811
RERDSM

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1256 AM CST WED NOV 16 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT DES MOINES IA...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 2.7 INCHES WAS SET AT DES MOINES IA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.0 INCHES SET IN 2014. 

THIS IS A CORRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS RECORD STATEMENT SENT EARLIER 
WHICH WAS THE 24HR SNOWFALL, NOT THE DAILY TOTAL. THE DAILY SNOWFALL 
YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 15TH, 2022 WAS 2.7 INCHES WHICH STILL SETS A NEW 
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD AT DES MOINES.

IF it does, @tStacsh best go into hiding, lol. He's been pushing for this very scenario. 

In other 2014 Deja-vu news, my old home is under the Watch. GRR not playing that partial county watch-box game yet. Problem is only the western 1/3 of the county will score in 90% of these LES scenarios. Winds have to remain DUE W or north of. Any slight vector S of due West will hose Marshall as it did 8 Novembers ago. We will see..

[jaster220]

Sleet this evening at home. The 4 mile latitude difference between home (south) and work (north) was weird today. The middle 2 miles of that had like 4X the snow with first covering on roads this season in between the traffic lanes. Either side of that was like a tenth or two. Talk about a micro-climate event!

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Sleet this evening at home. The 4 mile latitude difference between home (south) and work (north) was weird today. The middle 2 miles of that had like 4X the snow with first covering on roads this season in between the traffic lanes. Either side of that was like a tenth or two. Talk about a micro-climate event!

I saw that narrow band on radar over i-94.....

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

I saw that narrow band on radar over i-94.....

12z NAM yesterday "nailed it". Wife and I went to Canton's library. Walked out about 7 to some nice true flakes flying. Super nice mood setter with more and more holiday decorations popping-up around the area.

[Tom]

Some hefty totals over in SW lower MI....after this weekend is through, I could see some places with 2 Feet OTG...

 

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Some hefty totals over in SW lower MI....after this weekend is through, I could see some places with 2 Feet OTG

If everything goes as forecasted and there is indeed a good WSW and W wind over the next several days my area could go rather well. But with lake effect everything has to come into place and of course it becomes location, location. So we shall see.

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, westMJim said:

If everything goes as forecasted and there is indeed a good WSW and W wind over the next several days my area could go rather well. But with lake effect everything has to come into place and of course it becomes location, location. So we shall see.

Good Luck!  I feel pretty confident you'll score at least 10"...

[Stacsh]

10 minutes ago, westMJim said:

If everything goes as forecasted and there is indeed a good WSW and W wind over the next several days my area could go rather well. But with lake effect everything has to come into place and of course it becomes location, location. So we shall see.

Starting out well.  Just off and on right now though. 

[westMJim]

It has been snowing at a light to moderate rate now since 8 AM. Here in my yard I have just under 3" of new snow on the ground. There is just slush on the driveway and sidewalk. The warm ground and a air temperature of 34 is keeping total on the ground down.

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Starting out well.  Just off and on right now though. 

GRR's AFD mentioning the most intense round could be Saturday when the re-inforcing arctic front sweeps through. 12k NAM reflecting it nicely right thru yby around 1 pm

[jaster220]

When I lived in S. Bend, I worked here just a few miles north of the MI border:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 451 PM EST WED NOV 16 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0440 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 N BUCHANAN 41.89N 86.37W 11/16/2022 E13.1 INCH BERRIEN MI PUBLIC

[Anti Marine Layer]

23 hours ago, jaster220 said:

IF it does, @tStacsh best go into hiding, lol. He's been pushing for this very scenario. 

In other 2014 Deja-vu news, my old home is under the Watch. GRR not playing that partial county watch-box game yet. Problem is only the western 1/3 of the county will score in 90% of these LES scenarios. Winds have to remain DUE W or north of. Any slight vector S of due West will hose Marshall as it did 8 Novembers ago. We will see..

Lots of snow. Ground should stay white for a while. 

[Madtown]

Pretty cool to see that Meso Low on Satellite by the Keweenaw. The loop shows it great!

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-N_Tier-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR's AFD mentioning the most intense round could be Saturday when the re-inforcing arctic front sweeps through. 12k NAM reflecting it nicely right thru yby around 1 pm

yeah, not complaining, but with the ground warm and temps around 32-33 degrees the snow just isn't sticking to anything but grass and it is just a slop fest.  Lot's of melting still.  Still have 3" on the ground.  Nothing steady, just heavy bursts of snow every half an hour.  Need a consistent band.  Day time pulses off the lake are intense but don't last long.   Hopefully overnight with the colder air moving in we get some consistent banding.    

[Iceresistance]

The 12z HRRR has an area just south of Buffalo, NY that could have up to 70 inches of snow!

[Tom]

I'm missing these intense snow squalls back home...

 

These are the type of scenarios we are going to see quite often this winter.  I got a feeling, that this is just a harbinger of things to come.

Big time snows up in the U.P. and Ski Country of Ironwood, MI...

 

The Eastern LES belt region is on Fuego!

[Niko]

Everything is snow covered outside w/ temps in the upper 20s.

NOAA:

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

MIZ060>063-068>070-181330-
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, and Warren
616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

...SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS THIS MORNING...

Scattered snow showers will persist across the area this morning.
A couple of inches of snow fell across much of the area overnight,
leaving roads snow covered and slick. Drivers need to slow down
and allow extra time to reach their destinations this morning.

[Clinton]

38 minutes ago, Niko said:

Everything is snow covered outside w/ temps in the upper 20s.

NOAA:

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

MIZ060>063-068>070-181330-
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, and Warren
616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

...SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS THIS MORNING...

Scattered snow showers will persist across the area this morning.
A couple of inches of snow fell across much of the area overnight,
leaving roads snow covered and slick. Drivers need to slow down
and allow extra time to reach their destinations this morning.

Congrats on the snow, I hope you enjoy it.  I think you will see more of it the next few weeks.

[Tom]

Turn up the volume...#thundersnow

 

[tStacsh]

Measured 8" average in the yard.  No drifting so pretty easy to measure.  My new electric snowblower handled about 6" on the driveway easy.  It was WET snow.   So clearly not pure Lake effect.    Probably have received close to 10-11" of actual snow.  Lot melted.   When heavy snow hits it is likely 1" per hour rates or more.  

The drive to work SUCKED.  I'll take  snow on roads over slop and ice.  Wish they didn't plow at all!

[BMT]

This week has been pretty Epic. (for November)  Another good snow shower happening right now.  It's been off and on snowing since Saturday AND I haven't had to shovel once!  

[westMJim]

This is interesting from the NWS office here in Grand Rapids

" 

I have been getting moderate to at times almost heavy snow fall today in the "lull" and now have almost 8.5" on the ground but fell more that 12" has fallen. Getting moderate snow fall at this time with a temperature of 30. There is no wind at all here and the snow is clinging to the trees.

[jaster220]

0.4" overnight in Canton/Livonia area. More north as Niko showed. WC's are just a bit nippy. Tom's got to come home during a warm spell to adjust.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty amazing scenes coming out of Buffalo area. I can't imagine 3 inch/hour rates, and with thundersnow to boot! Super jealous.

Back closer to home, we bottomed out at 6 degrees with the wind chill reaching -9. Some more potential snow flurries overnight and into Saturday morning but as the theme of the week here goes, shouldn't amount to much. 

I have experinced those snowfall rates during Nor'easters and believe me when I tell you that it is amazing to see snow fall that heavily. Now add 30mph+ wind to that and that is where the beauty begins.

[Niko]

Snowing pretty much all morning here (light to moderate). An inch or more has fallen. Temps are at 31F.

[Hawkeye]

Guy in Hamburg, NY, on the other weather forum, is up to 4 feet.

[Tom]

47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0.4" overnight in Canton/Livonia area. More north as Niko showed. WC's are just a bit nippy. Tom's got to come home during a warm spell to adjust.

Our mornings here dip into the 40's and its chilly, not gonna lie.  I can't imagine the 10's, let along the single digits that some of you are experiencing.  Nevertheless, I'm going to have dip head first into Winter!

[Tom]

@jaster220Your ol' stomping grounds getting nailed right now...a sweet looking west/east band ripping KZOO...

 

[westMJim]

Ok will try this again here is the update from GRR

UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2022  
  
WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING BOTH NORTHWARD IN AREA AND   
TO 12Z SUNDAY IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR OUR NEXT WAVE OF LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW. THE ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WILL ALSO BE  
EXTENDED IN TIME TO 12Z SUNDAY. THIS IS TO ADDRESS THE GROWING  
THREAT SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND  
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE IN A RELATIVE LULL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT  
AND WILL TRY TO EXPRESS THAT IN THE FORTHCOMING WARNING AND  
ADVISORY PRODUCTS.  
  
IN ADDITION TO SNOW SATURDAY, WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS  
INCREASING THE HAZARDS OF EXPOSURE TO COLD, POOR VISIBILITY, AND   
POSSIBLY DRIFTING. ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST AND MOST PROLONGED SNOW WILL   
GENERALLY BE ADJACENT TO THE LAKE, THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL   
EASTWARD EXTENSION OF HEAVY SNOW DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT   
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE GRAND RAPIDS METRO AND AREAS TO  
THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL SEE HEAVIEST SNOW COMMENCING SATURDAY   
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS ESPECIALLY INTERESTING FROM   
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS LANSING WHERE PROLONGED   
HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG LAKE-INDUCED FRONTOGENESIS   
COUPLED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP   
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  
  
WE WILL TRY TO HAVE THE UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OUT  
BEFORE 1130 AM.  

 

[westMJim]

I cleared the driveway with the snowblower and took an update measurement of the snow on the ground. There is now 9.4” of snow on the ground here in my yard. There was less snow in the driveway with just 4” but it was very wet for lake effect snow.

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@jaster220Your ol' stomping grounds getting nailed right now...a sweet looking west/east band ripping KZOO...

 

It's really picking up again.  Lot's of areas should see another 4" + accumulate after sundown. 

[westMJim]

With tonight and tomorrow yet to go Grand Rapids is now at 11.5" for the last two days of snow fall and here in my yard I am now up to 9.8" on the ground. For the month Grand Rapids is now at 15.1" This will be the snowiest November since 2014.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220Your ol' stomping grounds getting nailed right now...a sweet looking west/east band ripping KZOO...

 

So, apparently I had to leave for this to happen - sigh!  Seriously tho, we had a few good LES events in my nearly 2 decades there but the BIGGIE LES events always failed. It looks like this one is going to be the one to deliver on the Warning headline (if not totally be the surprise over-achiever). 

GRR's pm AFD brings back fond memories of my winters of yore in NWMI. One event barely has time to end and the next is upon you. I-94 magnet seems to be a theme, not to mention they've not added 40 mph winds to the WSWarning. 

After a brief intermission, we will see a very rapid onset of a new
round of snow across the northwest forecast area shortly after sunrise
Saturday. This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks
to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated
cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow. Meanwhile,
farther east over Lake Michigan, the boundary layer will quickly
deepen with convective instability exceeding a depth of 10000 ft.
This deep lake instability plume is expected to rapidly penetrate
far inland, bringing with it an extremely fast onset of heavy snow
and poor visibility that should extend northwest of a Muskegon to
Clare line by the 9 AM time frame.

This area of lake enhanced snow will expand very quickly so that by
1 PM its leading edge will extend approximately from the southwest
tip of Lower Michigan to Lansing. Snowfall will be quite intense
at this point across far southwest Lower MI. In fact, latest WPC
guidance gives Grand Rapids 3-4 inches of snow between 1 PM and 7
PM Saturday. This is the kind of daytime snowfall rate one would
expect in mid January instead of mid November.

The contributing lake-induced fgen region mentioned previously now looks
to be a bit more progressive than earlier thought thanks to the cold
font moving in with more authority. Even so, it appears we should
see a dominant and more purely lake effect band developing in its wake
and persisting through much of Saturday night with heavy snowfall.
Unfortunately, this band looks to be closely aligned with I-94, as
is often the case in these scenarios.

In contrast, areas farther north closer to US-10 we should see a
gradual cessation of lake effect snow Saturday night around the
same time things are staying interesting around I-94 as described
above.

In addition to accumulating snow through Saturday night, we are
concerned about strong winds increasing the hazards of exposure to
cold, poor visibility, and possibly drifting. Saturday`s daytime
wind chills may actually be lowest over the southeast forecast
area as this is where winds will be the strongest. Drifting of
snow remains a concern, especially since we`ve already seen a hint
of this here at the office.

[jaster220]

A few solid reports from overnight in NWMI. Not bad for 12 hrs event.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
423 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HEAVY SNOW       CENTRAL LAKE            45.07N 85.26W
11/18/2022  M24.0 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT.

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 ESE EAST JORDAN       45.15N 85.11W
11/18/2022  E24.0 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   PUBLIC

            12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.

[Doinko]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS
Over 66" in some places.

[westMJim]

Just had a very heavy snow shower come thru and dropped a quick 2" of snow. Now have a total of 11" on the ground here in my yard.

[westMJim]

Here are some snow depth amounts from major reporting stations around the Great Lakes area at 7 AM November 19, 2022.  Buffalo 11”. Grand Rapids 8” Marquette 6”. Lansing, Alpena, Duluth, Erie PA, and Rhinelander 5”. Flint, Madison WI 2” Green Bay and Rochester NY 1” Detroit and Sault Ste Marie trace. Chicago and Rockford IL 0. Remember this is at the locations airport and for the most part are the official amounts for that location. I have been getting on and off heavy snow showers here for the past 2 hours.

[jaster220]

NWS seeing exactly what I did on yesterday's 18z NAM:

Attention will then turn to an arctic frontal boundary, projected to
travel across SE MI between 19Z - 01Z. Snow chances turn likely
along the boundary, with a period of scattered to numerous snow
showers filling back in behind the front under a better push of caa
with WNW flow. Frontogenetic forcing along the front with strong uvv
from 1kft up through the DGZ will help extend convective depths up
towards 10kft. This suggests linear squalls will be possible along
the boundary which will be capable of producing a quick half-inch to
inch of snowfall in a 30-60 min window. Rapid reductions to
visibilities to a half-mile or less will also be possible under brief
heavy snowfall, with aid from h850 wind speeds of 35-40 knots, which can
briefly be pulled to the surface in snow activity. Behind the front,
near surface lapse rates steepen to an impressive 8-9 C/km with building
near surface potential instability. This will bring renewed chances for
widely scattered to numerous snow showers with embedded convective
squall potential, through Sunday morning. An additional half-inch to
inch will be possible after the frontal passage with the more
loosely organized snowfall. Localized higher amounts to 2+ inches
remains achievable under heavier snow shower activity.