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11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow


Clinton
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It did a lot drizzling today in the city. Had a briefly decent flip to sizeable flakes, but it stopped about as quickly as it started. Was nice to look at while it lasted. Some more almost snow has been falling this evening at 34F. Had a little "wiper pile" on my windshield and pinging of the face. Will be forced to ditch the shoulder season jacket by Friday with temps going solid winter on us. Glad for all that measured snow outta this. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Aviation update says I will have to be on the lookout to increase my event total:

Intervals of higher intensity snow post nightfall could
result in accumulation of 1 inch or less on unpaved surfaces and
elevated surfaces during the evening peak as temperature struggles
to remain above freezing. IFR conditions gradually transition into
MVFR as snow ends and westerly wind increases toward sunrise.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and Wednesday.

* High for snow precipitation type tonight.
 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Light snow atm. Grass surfaces have a light coating. Temp at 33F and the radar looks good w a decent amount of moisture.

 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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Going to squeeze another inch out of this-! maybe more if radar trends continue. 3.3" for the event and it looks like the dead of winter out there right now with a fluffier snow falling and blowing around!!

image.thumb.png.b2b8fb10d4f6a440cf0a246957a29cb0.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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And there is this-  a warm up no doubt is coming and I think lasts longer than many think, but i don't think a DEC like 2014 is coming  when DEC laid a an egg after a memorable Nov. I think after the 10th it's more like Dec of 2008 / 2010.

000
SXUS73 KDMX 160811
RERDSM

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1256 AM CST WED NOV 16 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT DES MOINES IA...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 2.7 INCHES WAS SET AT DES MOINES IA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.0 INCHES SET IN 2014. 

THIS IS A CORRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS RECORD STATEMENT SENT EARLIER 
WHICH WAS THE 24HR SNOWFALL, NOT THE DAILY TOTAL. THE DAILY SNOWFALL 
YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 15TH, 2022 WAS 2.7 INCHES WHICH STILL SETS A NEW 
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD AT DES MOINES.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The first snow of the season in KC was a minor one. Most of the city saw less than a half inch and most of it was gone by 10am yesterday morning. I think it snowed 2 inches, just too warm as temps stayed around 33-34. I had just enough to make it look wintry outside.

Cold the next few days and it appears that we will start the warm-up this weekend and head right into a warmer pattern all of next week. Storm? GFS had one, but, its gone on the current data. 

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20 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

The first snow of the season in KC was a minor one. Most of the city saw less than a half inch and most of it was gone by 10am yesterday morning. I think it snowed 2 inches, just too warm as temps stayed around 33-34. I had just enough to make it look wintry outside.

Cold the next few days and it appears that we will start the warm-up this weekend and head right into a warmer pattern all of next week. Storm? GFS had one, but, its gone on the current data. 

I heard Lezak say they will be doing their winter forecast on the 30th.  Sign of cycle 2 have been showing up in the long range just after Thanksgiving.  It would be nice to get another storm or 2 into the pattern.

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16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I heard Lezak say they will be doing their winter forecast on the 30th.  Sign of cycle 2 have been showing up in the long range just after Thanksgiving.  It would be nice to get another storm or 2 into the pattern.

This is what i was referring to the other day. I would love for another good storm or 2 in the pattern through the Midwest with this pattern. I’m not overly encouraged with this weather pattern for winter in the kc region with this LRC

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I picked up another 1.1" overnight.  My two-day snow total is a respectable 2.5".  Of course, half of yesterday's snow melted, so there is not 2.5" on the ground.

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season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

And there is this-  a warm up no doubt is coming and I think lasts longer than many think, but i don't think a DEC like 2014 is coming  when DEC laid a an egg after a memorable Nov. I think after the 10th it's more like Dec of 2008 / 2010.

000
SXUS73 KDMX 160811
RERDSM

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1256 AM CST WED NOV 16 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT DES MOINES IA...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 2.7 INCHES WAS SET AT DES MOINES IA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.0 INCHES SET IN 2014. 

THIS IS A CORRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS RECORD STATEMENT SENT EARLIER 
WHICH WAS THE 24HR SNOWFALL, NOT THE DAILY TOTAL. THE DAILY SNOWFALL 
YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 15TH, 2022 WAS 2.7 INCHES WHICH STILL SETS A NEW 
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD AT DES MOINES.

IF it does, @tStacsh best go into hiding, lol. He's been pushing for this very scenario. 

In other 2014 Deja-vu news, my old home is under the Watch. GRR not playing that partial county watch-box game yet. Problem is only the western 1/3 of the county will score in 90% of these LES scenarios. Winds have to remain DUE W or north of. Any slight vector S of due West will hose Marshall as it did 8 Novembers ago. We will see..

image.thumb.png.847c8e88ea44caca641013d5a1cb3dff.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sleet this evening at home. The 4 mile latitude difference between home (south) and work (north) was weird today. The middle 2 miles of that had like 4X the snow with first covering on roads this season in between the traffic lanes. Either side of that was like a tenth or two. Talk about a micro-climate event!

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Sleet this evening at home. The 4 mile latitude difference between home (south) and work (north) was weird today. The middle 2 miles of that had like 4X the snow with first covering on roads this season in between the traffic lanes. Either side of that was like a tenth or two. Talk about a micro-climate event!

I saw that narrow band on radar over i-94.....

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

I saw that narrow band on radar over i-94.....

12z NAM yesterday "nailed it". Wife and I went to Canton's library. Walked out about 7 to some nice true flakes flying. Super nice mood setter with more and more holiday decorations popping-up around the area.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Some hefty totals over in SW lower MI....after this weekend is through, I could see some places with 2 Feet OTG

If everything goes as forecasted and there is indeed a good WSW and W wind over the next several days my area could go rather well. But with lake effect everything has to come into place and of course it becomes location, location. So we shall see.

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10 minutes ago, westMJim said:

If everything goes as forecasted and there is indeed a good WSW and W wind over the next several days my area could go rather well. But with lake effect everything has to come into place and of course it becomes location, location. So we shall see.

Good Luck!  I feel pretty confident you'll score at least 10"...

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10 minutes ago, westMJim said:

If everything goes as forecasted and there is indeed a good WSW and W wind over the next several days my area could go rather well. But with lake effect everything has to come into place and of course it becomes location, location. So we shall see.

DEF2A9E2-8784-4F99-B27E-72D81DF20A77.thumb.jpeg.27d86a96a953bc1f515564aa21294058.jpegStarting out well.  Just off and on right now though. 

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4 hours ago, Stacsh said:

DEF2A9E2-8784-4F99-B27E-72D81DF20A77.thumb.jpeg.27d86a96a953bc1f515564aa21294058.jpegStarting out well.  Just off and on right now though. 

GRR's AFD mentioning the most intense round could be Saturday when the re-inforcing arctic front sweeps through. 12k NAM reflecting it nicely right thru yby around 1 pm

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_42.png

 
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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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When I lived in S. Bend, I worked here just a few miles north of the MI border:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 451 PM EST WED NOV 16 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0440 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 N BUCHANAN 41.89N 86.37W 11/16/2022 E13.1 INCH BERRIEN MI PUBLIC

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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23 hours ago, jaster220 said:

IF it does, @tStacsh best go into hiding, lol. He's been pushing for this very scenario. 

In other 2014 Deja-vu news, my old home is under the Watch. GRR not playing that partial county watch-box game yet. Problem is only the western 1/3 of the county will score in 90% of these LES scenarios. Winds have to remain DUE W or north of. Any slight vector S of due West will hose Marshall as it did 8 Novembers ago. We will see..

image.thumb.png.847c8e88ea44caca641013d5a1cb3dff.png

Lots of snow. Ground should stay white for a while. 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR's AFD mentioning the most intense round could be Saturday when the re-inforcing arctic front sweeps through. 12k NAM reflecting it nicely right thru yby around 1 pm

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_42.png

 

yeah, not complaining, but with the ground warm and temps around 32-33 degrees the snow just isn't sticking to anything but grass and it is just a slop fest.  Lot's of melting still.  Still have 3" on the ground.  Nothing steady, just heavy bursts of snow every half an hour.  Need a consistent band.  Day time pulses off the lake are intense but don't last long.   Hopefully overnight with the colder air moving in we get some consistent banding.    

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I'm missing these intense snow squalls back home...

 

These are the type of scenarios we are going to see quite often this winter.  I got a feeling, that this is just a harbinger of things to come.

Big time snows up in the U.P. and Ski Country of Ironwood, MI...

Screen Shot 2022-11-18 at 4.32.07 AM.png

 

The Eastern LES belt region is on Fuego!

Screen Shot 2022-11-18 at 4.32.07 AM.png

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Everything is snow covered outside w/ temps in the upper 20s.

NOAA:

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

MIZ060>063-068>070-181330-
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, and Warren
616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

...SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS THIS MORNING...

Scattered snow showers will persist across the area this morning.
A couple of inches of snow fell across much of the area overnight,
leaving roads snow covered and slick. Drivers need to slow down
and allow extra time to reach their destinations this morning.
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  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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38 minutes ago, Niko said:

Everything is snow covered outside w/ temps in the upper 20s.

NOAA:

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

MIZ060>063-068>070-181330-
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, and Warren
616 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

...SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS THIS MORNING...

Scattered snow showers will persist across the area this morning.
A couple of inches of snow fell across much of the area overnight,
leaving roads snow covered and slick. Drivers need to slow down
and allow extra time to reach their destinations this morning.

Congrats on the snow, I hope you enjoy it.  I think you will see more of it the next few weeks.

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Measured 8" average in the yard.  No drifting so pretty easy to measure.  My new electric snowblower handled about 6" on the driveway easy.  It was WET snow.   So clearly not pure Lake effect.    Probably have received close to 10-11" of actual snow.  Lot melted.   When heavy snow hits it is likely 1" per hour rates or more.  

The drive to work SUCKED.  I'll take  snow on roads over slop and ice.  Wish they didn't plow at all!

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Pretty amazing scenes coming out of Buffalo area. I can't imagine 3 inch/hour rates, and with thundersnow to boot! Super jealous.

Back closer to home, we bottomed out at 6 degrees with the wind chill reaching -9. Some more potential snow flurries overnight and into Saturday morning but as the theme of the week here goes, shouldn't amount to much. 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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This is interesting from the NWS office here in Grand Rapids



I have been getting moderate to at times almost heavy snow fall today in the "lull" and now have almost 8.5" on the ground but fell more that 12" has fallen. Getting moderate snow fall at this time with a temperature of 30. There is no wind at all here and the snow is clinging to the trees.

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0.4" overnight in Canton/Livonia area. More north as Niko showed. WC's are just a bit nippy. Tom's got to come home during a warm spell to adjust. 😁

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty amazing scenes coming out of Buffalo area. I can't imagine 3 inch/hour rates, and with thundersnow to boot! Super jealous.

Back closer to home, we bottomed out at 6 degrees with the wind chill reaching -9. Some more potential snow flurries overnight and into Saturday morning but as the theme of the week here goes, shouldn't amount to much. 

I have experinced those snowfall rates during Nor'easters and believe me when I tell you that it is amazing to see snow fall that heavily. Now add 30mph+ wind to that and that is where the beauty begins.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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Snowing pretty much all morning here (light to moderate). An inch or more has fallen. Temps are at 31F.

  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0.4" overnight in Canton/Livonia area. More north as Niko showed. WC's are just a bit nippy. Tom's got to come home during a warm spell to adjust. 😁

Our mornings here dip into the 40's and its chilly, not gonna lie.  I can't imagine the 10's, let along the single digits that some of you are experiencing.  Nevertheless, I'm going to have dip head first into Winter!

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  • Clinton changed the title to 11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow
  • Tom unpinned this topic

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