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11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow


Clinton
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Ok will try this again here is the update from GRR

UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2022  
  
WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING BOTH NORTHWARD IN AREA AND   
TO 12Z SUNDAY IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR OUR NEXT WAVE OF LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW. THE ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WILL ALSO BE  
EXTENDED IN TIME TO 12Z SUNDAY. THIS IS TO ADDRESS THE GROWING  
THREAT SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND  
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE IN A RELATIVE LULL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT  
AND WILL TRY TO EXPRESS THAT IN THE FORTHCOMING WARNING AND  
ADVISORY PRODUCTS.  
  
IN ADDITION TO SNOW SATURDAY, WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS  
INCREASING THE HAZARDS OF EXPOSURE TO COLD, POOR VISIBILITY, AND   
POSSIBLY DRIFTING. ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST AND MOST PROLONGED SNOW WILL   
GENERALLY BE ADJACENT TO THE LAKE, THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL   
EASTWARD EXTENSION OF HEAVY SNOW DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT   
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE GRAND RAPIDS METRO AND AREAS TO  
THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL SEE HEAVIEST SNOW COMMENCING SATURDAY   
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS ESPECIALLY INTERESTING FROM   
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS LANSING WHERE PROLONGED   
HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG LAKE-INDUCED FRONTOGENESIS   
COUPLED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP   
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  
  
WE WILL TRY TO HAVE THE UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OUT  
BEFORE 1130 AM.  

 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220Your ol' stomping grounds getting nailed right now...a sweet looking west/east band ripping KZOO...

 

image.png

So, apparently I had to leave for this to happen - sigh!  Seriously tho, we had a few good LES events in my nearly 2 decades there but the BIGGIE LES events always failed. It looks like this one is going to be the one to deliver on the Warning headline (if not totally be the surprise over-achiever). 

GRR's pm AFD brings back fond memories of my winters of yore in NWMI. One event barely has time to end and the next is upon you. I-94 magnet seems to be a theme, not to mention they've not added 40 mph winds to the WSWarning. 

After a brief intermission, we will see a very rapid onset of a new
round of snow across the northwest forecast area shortly after sunrise
Saturday. This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks
to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated
cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow. Meanwhile,
farther east over Lake Michigan, the boundary layer will quickly
deepen with convective instability exceeding a depth of 10000 ft.
This deep lake instability plume is expected to rapidly penetrate
far inland, bringing with it an extremely fast onset of heavy snow
and poor visibility that should extend northwest of a Muskegon to
Clare line by the 9 AM time frame.

This area of lake enhanced snow will expand very quickly so that by
1 PM its leading edge will extend approximately from the southwest
tip of Lower Michigan to Lansing. Snowfall will be quite intense
at this point across far southwest Lower MI. In fact, latest WPC
guidance gives Grand Rapids 3-4 inches of snow between 1 PM and 7
PM Saturday. This is the kind of daytime snowfall rate one would
expect in mid January instead of mid November.

The contributing lake-induced fgen region mentioned previously now looks
to be a bit more progressive than earlier thought thanks to the cold
font moving in with more authority. Even so, it appears we should
see a dominant and more purely lake effect band developing in its wake
and persisting through much of Saturday night with heavy snowfall.
Unfortunately, this band looks to be closely aligned with I-94, as
is often the case in these scenarios.

In contrast, areas farther north closer to US-10 we should see a
gradual cessation of lake effect snow Saturday night around the
same time things are staying interesting around I-94 as described
above.

In addition to accumulating snow through Saturday night, we are
concerned about strong winds increasing the hazards of exposure to
cold, poor visibility, and possibly drifting. Saturday`s daytime
wind chills may actually be lowest over the southeast forecast
area as this is where winds will be the strongest. Drifting of
snow remains a concern, especially since we`ve already seen a hint
of this here at the office.
  • Excited 1

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A few solid reports from overnight in NWMI. Not bad for 12 hrs event.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
423 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HEAVY SNOW       CENTRAL LAKE            45.07N 85.26W
11/18/2022  M24.0 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT.

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 ESE EAST JORDAN       45.15N 85.11W
11/18/2022  E24.0 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   PUBLIC

            12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.
  • Like 4

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here are some snow depth amounts from major reporting stations around the Great Lakes area at 7 AM November 19, 2022.  Buffalo 11”. Grand Rapids 8” Marquette 6”. Lansing, Alpena, Duluth, Erie PA, and Rhinelander 5”. Flint, Madison WI 2” Green Bay and Rochester NY 1” Detroit and Sault Ste Marie trace. Chicago and Rockford IL 0. Remember this is at the locations airport and for the most part are the official amounts for that location. I have been getting on and off heavy snow showers here for the past 2 hours.

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NWS seeing exactly what I did on yesterday's 18z NAM:

Attention will then turn to an arctic frontal boundary, projected to
travel across SE MI between 19Z - 01Z. Snow chances turn likely
along the boundary, with a period of scattered to numerous snow
showers filling back in behind the front under a better push of caa
with WNW flow. Frontogenetic forcing along the front with strong uvv
from 1kft up through the DGZ will help extend convective depths up
towards 10kft. This suggests linear squalls will be possible along
the boundary which will be capable of producing a quick half-inch to
inch of snowfall in a 30-60 min window. Rapid reductions to
visibilities to a half-mile or less will also be possible under brief
heavy snowfall, with aid from h850 wind speeds of 35-40 knots, which can
briefly be pulled to the surface in snow activity. Behind the front,
near surface lapse rates steepen to an impressive 8-9 C/km with building
near surface potential instability. This will bring renewed chances for
widely scattered to numerous snow showers with embedded convective
squall potential, through Sunday morning. An additional half-inch to
inch will be possible after the frontal passage with the more
loosely organized snowfall. Localized higher amounts to 2+ inches
remains achievable under heavier snow shower activity.
 

  • Like 5

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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  • Clinton changed the title to 11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow

Legit January event!

UPDATE...
Issued at 135 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

Leading edge of initial snow burst was located along a Paw Paw to
Ionia line around 120 PM. The GRR airport continues to experience
visibility at or below a quarter mile as well as blowing/drifting
snow. The leading edge of this snow burst will continue to move
southeastward, reaching a Kalamazoo to Portland line shortly
after 2 PM with similar conditions.
  • Like 3

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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What ever happened to the new Squall Warning. Lol, this reads a lot like a TOR warning with the highway mile marker break-down. 1st winter headline of the season for Wayne that I'm aware of. 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
743 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

MIZ068>070-075-076-200230-
Livingston MI-Macomb MI-Oakland MI-Washtenaw MI-Wayne MI-
743 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT LIVINGSTON...OAKLAND...MACOMB...
WASHTENAW...AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH
which can rapidly reduce visibility to near a quarter of a mile.
Quick snow accumulation around 1 inch with localized totals near 2
inches by 1000 PM.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 740 PM EST, a narrow band of heavy snow
was along a line from Rochester to near Brighton to near Gregory and
moving east at 35 MPH.

THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE NEAR...
  Troy around 740 PM EST.
  Sterling Heights around 745 PM EST.
  Mount Clemens and Dexter around 755 PM EST.
  Novi around 800 PM EST.
  Hamburg around 805 PM EST.
  Whitmore Lake around 810 PM EST.
  Birmingham and Dixboro around 820 PM EST.

This includes the following highways...
 I-75 between mile markers 27 and 71.
 I-275 between mile markers 8 and 29.
 I-94 between mile markers 154 and 238.
 I-96 between mile markers 154 and 192.
 I-696 between mile markers 1 and 28.
 US-23 between mile markers 26 and 58.

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

What ever happened to the new Squall Warning. Lol, this reads a lot like a TOR warning with the highway mile marker break-down. 1st winter headline of the season for Wayne that I'm aware of. 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
743 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

MIZ068>070-075-076-200230-
Livingston MI-Macomb MI-Oakland MI-Washtenaw MI-Wayne MI-
743 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT LIVINGSTON...OAKLAND...MACOMB...
WASHTENAW...AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH
which can rapidly reduce visibility to near a quarter of a mile.
Quick snow accumulation around 1 inch with localized totals near 2
inches by 1000 PM.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 740 PM EST, a narrow band of heavy snow
was along a line from Rochester to near Brighton to near Gregory and
moving east at 35 MPH.

THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE NEAR...
  Troy around 740 PM EST.
  Sterling Heights around 745 PM EST.
  Mount Clemens and Dexter around 755 PM EST.
  Novi around 800 PM EST.
  Hamburg around 805 PM EST.
  Whitmore Lake around 810 PM EST.
  Birmingham and Dixboro around 820 PM EST.

This includes the following highways...
 I-75 between mile markers 27 and 71.
 I-275 between mile markers 8 and 29.
 I-94 between mile markers 154 and 238.
 I-96 between mile markers 154 and 192.
 I-696 between mile markers 1 and 28.
 US-23 between mile markers 26 and 58.

This Snow Band is dangerous as well!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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31 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

they can send some this way, to get it out of the way lol

Not to me! The state would be absolutely paralyzed! February 1986 completely crippled Oklahoma City with 4-6 feet of snow (includes snow drifts)!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

This Snow Band is dangerous as well!

It's here. Just peeked outside and it's pure rippage. I was in Saginaw earlier and heading back between 5 and 6 I had a light snow and it was causing big traffic congestions. Would not want to be out there in grid-lock during this. Vis likely under a 1/4 attm

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  • Snow 1

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 11/18/2022 at 5:16 PM, jaster220 said:

So, apparently I had to leave for this to happen - sigh!  Seriously tho, we had a few good LES events in my nearly 2 decades there but the BIGGIE LES events always failed. It looks like this one is going to be the one to deliver on the Warning headline (if not totally be the surprise over-achiever). 

GRR's pm AFD brings back fond memories of my winters of yore in NWMI. One event barely has time to end and the next is upon you. I-94 magnet seems to be a theme, not to mention they've not added 40 mph winds to the WSWarning. 

After a brief intermission, we will see a very rapid onset of a new
round of snow across the northwest forecast area shortly after sunrise
Saturday. This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks
to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated
cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow. Meanwhile,
farther east over Lake Michigan, the boundary layer will quickly
deepen with convective instability exceeding a depth of 10000 ft.
This deep lake instability plume is expected to rapidly penetrate
far inland, bringing with it an extremely fast onset of heavy snow
and poor visibility that should extend northwest of a Muskegon to
Clare line by the 9 AM time frame.

This area of lake enhanced snow will expand very quickly so that by
1 PM its leading edge will extend approximately from the southwest
tip of Lower Michigan to Lansing. Snowfall will be quite intense
at this point across far southwest Lower MI. In fact, latest WPC
guidance gives Grand Rapids 3-4 inches of snow between 1 PM and 7
PM Saturday. This is the kind of daytime snowfall rate one would
expect in mid January instead of mid November.

The contributing lake-induced fgen region mentioned previously now looks
to be a bit more progressive than earlier thought thanks to the cold
font moving in with more authority. Even so, it appears we should
see a dominant and more purely lake effect band developing in its wake
and persisting through much of Saturday night with heavy snowfall.
Unfortunately, this band looks to be closely aligned with I-94, as
is often the case in these scenarios.

In contrast, areas farther north closer to US-10 we should see a
gradual cessation of lake effect snow Saturday night around the
same time things are staying interesting around I-94 as described
above.

In addition to accumulating snow through Saturday night, we are
concerned about strong winds increasing the hazards of exposure to
cold, poor visibility, and possibly drifting. Saturday`s daytime
wind chills may actually be lowest over the southeast forecast
area as this is where winds will be the strongest. Drifting of
snow remains a concern, especially since we`ve already seen a hint
of this here at the office.

Woah!  Kalamazoo got 19" from this event...

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-20 at 5.03.02 AM.png

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14 hours ago, Tom said:

Woah!  Kalamazoo got 19" from this event...

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-20 at 5.03.02 AM.png

The US-131 corridor was ground zero - perfect distance inland to rake the best amounts. I've been mulling over comparisons to other Pre-Thanksgiving winter blasts since I came back to SMI circa 2002. This is the counter-balance to 11-22-15 which dumped 12-18" of concrete-mixer synoptic snow focused on SEMI. SWMI was barely touched by that. I was downtown Kalamazoo that Saturday evening after the storm and was quite surprised they only had like 4-5" while I had over a foot in Marshall. 

Most of The Mitt is covered in a blanket of snow today, even here! One solid winter day w/snow OTG courtesy of that weenie band yesterday late evening:

955646202_KDTWObs22-11-191053pm.png.02ccf683446b59450bd723bc48d67257.png

The bigger picture:

1936695849_GRRSnowTotals22-11-201040am.thumb.png.154dae71b2413b2a715c48ef6ee367f5.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

The US-131 corridor was ground zero - perfect distance inland to rake the best amounts. I've been mulling over comparisons to other Pre-Thanksgiving winter blasts since I came back to SMI circa 2002. This is the counter-balance to 11-22-15 which dumped 12-18" of concrete-mixer synoptic snow focused on SEMI. SWMI was barely touched by that. I was downtown Kalamazoo that Saturday evening after the storm and was quite surprised they only had like 4-5" while I had over a foot in Marshall. 

Most of The Mitt is covered in a blanket of snow today, even here! One solid winter day w/snow OTG courtesy of that weenie band yesterday late evening:

955646202_KDTWObs22-11-191053pm.png.02ccf683446b59450bd723bc48d67257.png

The bigger picture:

1936695849_GRRSnowTotals22-11-201040am.thumb.png.154dae71b2413b2a715c48ef6ee367f5.png

It's been a long time since I've seen this much snow inundate Lower MI this early in the season.  Hopefully the warmth this week won't eat away at all of the snow that's OTG in the harder hit areas.  It's been a while to see GRR and KZOO ground zero for a heavy LES event.  I'm sure there will be plenty more this season!

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52 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's been a long time since I've seen this much snow inundate Lower MI this early in the season.  Hopefully the warmth this week won't eat away at all of the snow that's OTG in the harder hit areas.  It's been a while to see GRR and KZOO ground zero for a heavy LES event.  I'm sure there will be plenty more this season!

It was a fun event indeed.  Too bad it wasn't colder.  The snow didn't accumulate as much on my driveway(maybe 5 inches) and sidewalks.  The grass did ok but is already down to 9". ( I totaled 22.5" in the 4 days)   Local Met expects most of the snow to be gone by the weekend.   No snow in sight through the rest of Nov. (that could change obviously but not looking good).  But an early taste of winter.  WIsh it would last or get reinforced.  

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