2017 California/Southwest Weather Thread

[Anti Marine Layer]

Beautiful, warm day today and I got out to enjoy the sunshine and spring-like weather, but tomorrow is back to work and I hope to see some decent rain. The storm will need to fight off the ridge that gave us the nice weather.

[Guest happ]

Reports of snowfall at 7000' in southern Sierra now; freeze line is lowering.  Quite warm today w/ several locations above 80°.

 

79/ 54

[Guest happ]

Heavy rainfall/ lightning occurred overnight; now just drizzle. January is looking even more promising than December especially in NorCal. Lots of snow melt/ flooding in the Sierra but snow levels are much lower today.  Great pattern for more rain this week.

 

0.70

 

Jan: 1.47

 

Year [jul-jun]: 8.03

[Anti Marine Layer]

Anybody see this about the big Sequoia tree that fell down?

 

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/tunnel-tree-pioneer-cabin-fallen-california/

[Guest happ]

This has been a remarkable winter. I'll look through data to see when was the last time California experienced on-going periods of rainfall or post question on Weather West. Just drizzle so far, shy of 0.10  but w/ more substantial rain likely tonight.

 

Monday: 64/ 54

[Dan the Weatherman]

Anybody see this about the big Sequoia tree that fell down?

 

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/tunnel-tree-pioneer-cabin-fallen-california/

 

I saw a post on Weather West the other day that the Tunnel Tree had fallen and the Orange County Register (Orange County newspaper) had an article about it today.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Heavy rainfall/ lightning occurred overnight; now just drizzle. January is looking even more promising than December especially in NorCal. Lots of snow melt/ flooding in the Sierra but snow levels are much lower today.  Great pattern for more rain this week.

 

0.70

 

Jan: 1.47

 

Year [jul-jun]: 8.03

 

I saw some of that lightning the other night to my NW, just before it began raining here in Orange.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has been raining lightly here in Orange off and on for much of the late morning and early afternoon so far. The main front is still in the Bay area, but Socal is under a moist westerly flow at this time.

[Guest happ]

GFS says a lot more precip headed your way.

 

 

It would be great to keep this pattern going; even in regular rain seasons there are storms generally every 2-3 weeks. The drought deficit is lowering significantly esp in northern 2/3rd of California.

 

60/ 50

[Guest happ]

Good shower now; looks like an evening of rainfall

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-late-fall-early-winter-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=205355

[Guest happ]

I'm a bit confused by the NWS_LA discussion that overnight/ current rainfall was insignificant! I have 0.80 since last night.

[Guest happ]

‘This is a big deal’: Storms could spell end to historic drought"

 

http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/This-is-a-big-deal-Storms-could-spell-end-10848802.php

[Guest happ]

Rain data suggests orographic lift greatly help boost totals around Pasadena [ie. San Rafael Hills: 1.85]. Next storm tomorrow!

 

65/ 56

 

0.80

Jan: 2.35 

[Anti Marine Layer]

We have been getting the tail end of all these storms, which is better than nothing, but I'm hoping for another one to bring at least an inch of rain.

 

The sun did come out this afternoon before more clouds started to move in around sunset.

[Thunder98]

I'm no longer in Exceptional drought!!

 

http://www.city-data.com/forum/attachments/weather/179632d1484228745-winter-thread-2016-17-northern-hemisphere-droughtmoniter.png

[Andie]

‘This is a big deal’: Storms could spell end to historic drought"

 

http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/This-is-a-big-deal-Storms-could-spell-end-10848802.php

Great news for you guys. Hope this fills those reservoirs.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's been raining for the last few hours at Fullerton Airport, but not a single drop down here in Irvine so far. Looking like a "pick and choose" storm that will once again bypass most of San Diego County.

[Guest happ]

Great news for you guys. Hope this fills those reservoirs.

 

Thanks Andie

 

I recall the Texas drought in 2011; about the same time that California entered its current drought. Seems that lower middle latitude climates are prone to drought.

[Guest happ]

The trough is moving southwest to off Baja. Perhaps the elongated position helped Los Angeles. Past an inch now and it is still raining.   

 

51°

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain has stopped for now, but it looks like more is coming.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It has been raining heavily for at least half an hour here, but Fullerton Airport is getting only light rain.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like no one finds the rain too exciting. What do we need to get some activity here? 100 mph winds with hail and thunderstorms and tornadoes?

[Thunder98]

More rain will continue after the break.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

 

 

 

[Guest happ]

Convective shower this afternoon; nothing since but a great day for viewing/ getting out in the rain. Slight flooding in front of my house.

 

56/ 52

 

1.58

 

Rainyear: 10.49

 

Sorry for the size of photo

[snow_wizard]

I knew you guys were going to score this winter. It had suppressed jet written all over it.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Still raining here. John Wayne Airport always has one of the lowest rainfall totals in any storm.

[Thunder98]

It is a currently a chilly 33F 

[Guest happ]

It is a currently a chilly 33F 

 

Near consistent onshore flow has made it difficult to attain cold minimums this month. Statistically average mean temps actually rise in January [60.6°] making December [59.5°] the coldest month.  

 

How did Santa Maria fare during recent storms? Above normal rainfall?

[Anti Marine Layer]

The desert got some rain today from our slow moving cutoff low and it looks like San Diego could still get something too.

 

We should have a massive wildflower bloom in the spring.

 

Five straight days of rain for Southern California.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just got another brief shower here. It probably did not amount to much.

[Thunder98]

Near consistent onshore flow has made it difficult to attain cold minimums this month. Statistically average mean temps actually rise in January [60.6°] making December [59.5°] the coldest month.  

 

How did Santa Maria fare during recent storms? Above normal rainfall?

 

I'm at 9.47" of rain this water year so far (Sept 1st-Aug 31st) Which is between 150%-200% of average so far. I'm only around 4 inches away from my annual average.

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by Thunder98

[Guest happ]

Only some desert communities are currently below normal. But it is Important that a progressive pattern of more storms continue for at least the next 2-3 months.

 

  

[Anti Marine Layer]

First warm and sunny day in quite a while today. Got to see sunshine after 5 PM for the first time since November 5.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I knew you guys were going to score this winter. It had suppressed jet written all over it.

 

This season has been worlds better than the last few across the entire state so far. Plentiful snowfall in the mountains and a good deal of rain even in Socal. I have recorded nearly 10 inches of rain here in Orange since July 1 and more is likely later next week.

[Guest happ]

Encouraging model agreement on a series of storms this week.   

 

Saturday: 70/ 49

[Anti Marine Layer]

Eddy is generating a strong wind today. Still, it is a very nice day.

[Guest happ]

Tule fog thick in the Central Valley

 

 

[Guest happ]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1125 AM PST Mon Jan 16 2017

...SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WET PERIOD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BEGINNING THURSDAY JANUARY 19TH...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY JANUARY 24TH. UNLIKE THE LAST Series
OF STORMS...THE STORM TRACK LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE SUPPRESSED
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO INCLUDE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
LITTLE RECOVERY TIME IS EXPECTED BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2010 THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
PATTERN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND MAIN-STEM RIVERS. IN
ADDITION...AFTER THE FIRST AND SECOND STORMS...THE SOILS WILL
LIKELY HAVE LITTLE CAPACITY TO ABSORB MUCH MORE RAIN...WITH MOST
OF IT BECOMING RUNOFF.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEMS THIS WEEKENDAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
EXIST IN AND BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS AND IN POORLY DRAINED URBAN
AREAS.

Some very preliminary 6-DAY forecast rainfall totals for Thursday
through Tuesday of next week...

Coast...........2 to 4 inches.
Valleys.........3 to 5 inches.
Mountains.......5 to 10 inches.
Upper deserts...1 to 3 inches.
Lower deserts...1 to 2 inchES.

SOME FAVORED COASTAL SLOPES COULD RECEIVE A FOOT OR MORE OF RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE MOSTLY BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET...
WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER MOUNTAIN SLOPES
INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE FREEZING LEVELS MAY
RISE FOR A TIME DURING THE FINAL STORM IN THIS SERIES. THIS COULD
AUGMENT RUNOFF. SEVERAL FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES BY NEXT TUESDAY.

SEVERAL OF OUR RIVER SYSTEMS HAVE NOT RECORDED SIGNIFICANT FLOW
SINCE 2010 INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS REY...SANTA MARGARITA...AND THE
MOJAVE. THE SAN DIEGO RIVER RESPONDS MORE QUICKLY TO RAINFALL AND
RUNOFF AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED MONITOR LEVEL...FLOWING OVER SOME OF
THE LOWER WATER CROSSINGS IN MISSION VALLEY AT TIMES.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE SANTA MARGARITA...SAN DIEGO...WHITEWATER...MOJAVE...AND
TIJUANA RIVERS MAY RECORD SIGNIFICANT FLOWS.

* THE SAN DIEGO AND SANTA MARGARITA RIVERS MAY REACH FLOOD LEVELS.
  THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGH MISSION VALLEY... AND ON
  VANDERGRIFT AND STUART MESA ROADS ON CAMP PENDLETON. ROAD
  CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE.

* FOR THE MOJAVE RIVER...PRESENT RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS WOULD NOT
  RESULT IN THE RIVER REACHING FLOOD LEVEL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
  FLOWS IN THE HIGH DESERT ARE RARE AND MAY IMPACT LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS AND AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE RIVER
  CHANNEL.

* THE WHITEWATER RIVER DRAINS INTO THE COACHELLA CANAL WHICH FLOWS
  THROUGH HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY. LOW-
  WATER CROSSINGS MAY BE INUNDATED AND BARRICADED AT TIMES IF THE
  FLOW BECOMES MODERATE TO HEAVY.

* THE TIJUANA RIVER TENDS TO RESPOND QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAINFALL
  RATES...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE SOIL HAS BECOME SATURATED. RESIDENTS
  AND INTERESTS IN THE TIJUANA RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
  FLOODING AT TIMES THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MAKE PREPARATIONS TO
  MOVE EQUIPMENT AND ANIMALS TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.

* FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS REY RIVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
  AFTER YEARS OF VERY LITTLE FLOW...DENSE OVERGROWTH HAS DEVELOPED
  IN THE CHANNEL. ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOW CAN RESULT IN FLOODING DUE
  TO TEMPORARY CHANNEL BLOCKAGES THAT MAY DEVELOP. LOCAL FLOODING
  IS POSSIBLE IN UPSTREAM AREAS FROM BONSALL TO PAUMA VALLEY. SOME
  ROAD IMPACTS OR CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE... INCLUDING SHEARER
  CROSSING...COUSER CANYON AND LILAC ROAD.

A PRELIMINARY FORECAST FROM THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RIVER FORECAST
CENTER HAS THE SAN DIEGO RIVER REACHING 7.5 FT BY 6 PM PST FRIDAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOSURES OF LOW-WATER CROSSINGS IN MISSION
VALLEY THEN. WATCH FOR LAXRVSSGX ISSUANCES FOR RIVER FORECAST
LEVELS IN THE COMING DAYS...OR CHECK THE WEB AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGX

SOME FLOODING IS LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK. EXPECT ROAD CLOSURES OR
DELAYS AT LOW-WATER CROSSINGS AND URBAN FLOODING AT TIMES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. WATCH FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like it could get pretty wet. However, they said the same thing last January before the few El Nino storms and they were much weaker than forecast.