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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Goducks09

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When does the 6z GFS start? I'm never usually up this late!

 

1:30am

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It is weird how W. Oregon keeps being so much better than W. WA for snow...Odd times we live in. I feel bad for Jim. His silence leads me to believe he is getting screwed again.

Perhaps...just perhaps next week us norhenders get a low that comes in right at the mouth of the Columbia....like the good old days leaving Oregon screwed.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2-3" so far, radar filling in. Scappoose is a mess as well,

Mixed precip by side roads are frozen.

 

That last shower that went through looked really good for you guys! I'm at about 1.5", looks like around 3-4 through about 7-8am will be the focus down here. Performing fairly well so far. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Wow some interesting OBS in E. Oregon. Burns sitting at -12 this morning. Pendleton 37 with a 40mph W wind. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Haven't seen the latest runs, can we expect any real accumulation?

 

Unlikely anything accumulates beyond a dusting below about 200', but areas above that should mostly see some ground covering at some point. Some folks, especially those further north or near the Cascade foothills, could see up to 3".

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Just added up all my snow events/totals this winter so far.

12-8/12-9: 3"

12-17: 0.25"

12-23: 2.5"

12-31/1-1: 0.75"(Possibly more)

 

I'll gladly take 6.5" even though there could've been more, much better than the last few winters here.

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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hmmmm... Mr. Dolt, Eugene reporting flurries!!!

I can report that that report was incorrect, at least at my location.

 

Instead of ushering in the new year with 33 degree rain, we are blessed with 32 degree rain.  Negative on the windshield splat test as well (not that my buzzed a** is driving though).  Yay!

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I set my expectations a few days ago for this event at about 1-2". It looks like it will over perform those expectations here. My positive post for the night :)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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FWIW, latest HRRR shows SW WA/OR being the relative winners for snow through hr 13.

 

Show's about 3-4" here...Given what I already have I could end up with 4"+, that would be way more than I was expecting...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I can report that that report was incorrect, at least at my location.

 

Instead of ushering in the new year with 33 degree rain, we are blessed with 32 degree rain.  Negative on the windshield splat test as well (not that my buzzed a** is driving though).  Yay!

 

At least you got hammered, that qualifies as a successful new years eve right? I am still up watching the snow, 2" and a big shower just about to hit. The fiancee and my buddy have since retired for the evening... I guess I am the only one obsessed enough to keep pushing on!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Unlikely anything accumulates beyond a dusting below about 200', but areas above that should mostly see some ground covering at some point. Some folks, especially those further north or near the Cascade foothills, could see up to 3".

 

Just drove from Tigard to Hillsboro through Beaverton. Was surprised to see widespread frozen road surfaces and some very light snow/ice accumulations from Beaverton to Hillsboro. Saw some clear freezing rain accumulation too that is still frozen here. 

 

Currently 31F with nothing falling. I think we have done better than I expected temp wise the whole day despite the onslaught of the south winds. 

If we could get the mid levels to cool a bit more here, everything should accumulate easily now that the surfaces are frozen here. 

 

 

Given that the models clearly have no idea what is going to happen next week and the trends have made me a bit nervous, I think I'm going to try to enjoy this current event as much as possible. 

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At least you got hammered, that qualifies as a successful new years eve right? I am still up watching the snow, 2" and a big shower just about to hit. The fiancee and my buddy have since retired for the evening... I guess I am the only one obsessed enough to keep pushing on!

The huskies also got hammered, which is a nice way to start the new year.  At least they had a successful season.  "Peach bowl runner up". 

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Just drove from Tigard to Hillsboro through Beaverton. Was surprised to see widespread frozen road surfaces and some very light snow/ice accumulations from Beaverton to Hillsboro. Saw some clear freezing rain accumulation too that is still frozen here. 

 

Currently 31F with nothing falling. I think we have done better than I expected temp wise the whole day despite the onslaught of the south winds. 

If we could get the mid levels to cool a bit more here, everything should accumulate easily now that the surfaces are frozen here. 

 

 

Given that the models clearly have no idea what is going to happen next week and the trends have made me a bit nervous, I think I'm going to try to enjoy this current event as much as possible. 

 

HIO was 31 at 1am. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The huskies also got hammered, which is a nice way to start the new year.  At least they had a successful season.  "Peach bowl runner up". 

 

That was nice. A Clemson vs. Bama rematch is kind of lame though. I could literally care less about that. I hope Coach Taggart turns things around. Great sweep of the LA schools by the basketball team this weekend though!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The huskies also got hammered, which is a nice way to start the new year.  At least they had a successful season.  "Peach bowl runner up". 

 

 

They hung pretty good with this years version of the Crimson Tide which some say is the best college football team ever assembled.    A couple bounces their way and it would have been even closer.   They did much better than Ohio State!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice to see a GFS run trend on the cooler side so far for once...

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Nice to see a GFS run trend on the cooler side so far for once...

 

I was going to mention that...Very slightly, but a bit cooler through the next couple days at least. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Haha, this is entertaining. Thunder? With these highs? That would be a first. Did accuweather hack them?

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/ddj2wo.jpg

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Haha, this is entertaining. Thunder? With these highs? That would be a first. Did accuweather hack them?

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/ddj2wo.jpg

 

Wouldn't that be awesome though!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I wonder what the 925mb temps are right now, the precip isn't all snow even though the surface temps are around freezing. That cold air advection needs to happen now!

 

925's are at -1c right now. I've had all snow today and currently have 2" of snow so far at 1,000' just to your east. Upper levels are not your problem, it's the near surface temps. You're getting radiational cooling now but the air just above you is still just above freezing which mixes down under the showers. That should change in the next couple of hours.

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Kind of looks like it slowed it's progress SSE too.

 

 

That band over Seattle and Bellevue is not really moving... but I think it bodes well for people south and east of there like Jim and the swamp people eventually.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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925's are at -1c right now. I've had all snow today and currently have 2" of snow so far at 1,000' just to your east. Upper levels are not your problem, it's the near surface temps. You're getting radiational cooling now but the air just above you is still just above freezing which mixes down under the showers. That should change in the next couple of hours.

 

Maybe 925mb  is fine, but:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KHIO&num=72&raw=0

 

HIO reporting "Unknown Prcp, Mist" and "Lt Rain, Mist" with the temps at 32 or less in the past few hours. I'm near HIO right now and can confirm that the roads are icy and there are spots of light snow and ice accumulation. The temp was reading 32F here earlier even when a shower came through with a mix.

 

I assume the entire column is cold enough for snow very shortly here. 

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06z is slightly cooler...Still no EURO...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The band up here is just a couple miles north of me, but is moving at a snail's pace. Likely will dissolve before it gets here next week sometime.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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The band up here is just a couple miles north of me, but is moving at a snail's pace. Likely will dissolve before it gets here next week sometime.

 

That band did a number on the bow hill area... just drove through. Freeway totally covered and multiple wrecks

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Maybe 925mb  is fine, but:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KHIO&num=72&raw=0

 

HIO reporting "Unknown Prcp, Mist" and "Lt Rain, Mist" with the temps at 32 or less in the past few hours. I'm near HIO right now and can confirm that the roads are icy and there are spots of light snow and ice accumulation. The temp was reading 32F here earlier even when a shower came through with a mix.

 

I assume the entire column is cold enough for snow very shortly here. 

 

Yeah my guess is somewhere in the 100' - 600' column above you is above freezing. Need the southerly gradient to relax.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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