January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hour 36 of the NAM wants to keep Oregon's upper levels a little cooler... Baby steps

 

Current Run

 

 

Previous Run

[Kayla]

The Nam takes the low inland south of the Oregon/California border. 

 

Hmmm, seems to have a slightly better track as it moves inland...

[FroYoBro]

Hour 36 of the NAM wants to keep Oregon's upper levels a little cooler... Baby steps

 

Current Run

nam_T850_us_13.png

 

Previous Run

nam_T850_us_21.png

 

Yeah, I noticed that it gives more snow on the Oregon beaches this run because of that. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah, I noticed that it gives more snow on the Oregon beaches this run because of that. 

 

Yes, much better chance for snow in Southern and central Oregon.  Might be a little sloppy and transitional at times but a slightly better outcome for some.

[MossMan]

Imagine the carnage if this forum also had a "dislike" button. Let's give it a shot and see how it goes!

*Sorry

You have reached your quota of dislikes for the day *

[luvssnow_spokane]

NAM keeping it still much cooler for all at hour 48... Northern branch puts up a fight.

 

CURRENT 12z

 

PREVIOUS RUN

[MossMan]

NAM keeping it still much cooler for all at hour 42... Northern branch puts up a fight.

Could it be a sign that the big 3 do the same tonight for the 00z's???

[luvssnow_spokane]

Could it be a sign that the big 3 do the same tonight for the 00z's???

Possibly... I will take any improvement but it is still a long shot.      The big picture is still very iffy.

[FroYoBro]

Possibly... I will take any improvement but it is still a long shot.      The big picture is still very iffy.

[stuffradio]

Today's weekly ensembles are extremely ridgy after day 24.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Today's weekly ensembles are extremely ridgy after day 24.

Ridge placement?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today's weekly ensembles are extremely ridgy after day 24.

 

Warm February?

[HardDrinkinLincoln]

Here is 5 am on 1/18/2012 in Vernonia getting ready for work.

[stuffradio]

Imagine the carnage if this forum also had a "dislike" button.  Let's give it a shot and see how it goes!

It has one. Click "Like" on a post, then hit "unlike".

[epiceast]

For what it's worth.

Wiki gives 5.1" for 1971-2000 in Corvallis and 4.3" for Portland from 1981-2010, so a 20% increase but with a better time for Corvallis. I'm guessing the average for most of southern Willamette valley is 3" if they are right by the river, so it could be one of the better locations.

[stuffradio]

Warm February?

Yes, but it's the weeklies. They are really unreliable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmm, seems to have a slightly better track as it moves inland...

 

Hi-Res doesn't look great. Maybe some flurries north of Albany. The problem is that the low tracks straight E and then SE, if it tracked NE we'd get wrap around. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Kinda cool to see the north/south battle... Nice little lineup of low pressures systems on either side. 

 

[MossMan]

Kinda cool to see the north/south battle... Nice little lineup of low pressures systems on either side.

 

nam_T850_namer_25.png

So much cold air up there...so close to epic

[Kayla]

Hi-Res doesn't look great. Maybe some flurries north of Albany. The problem is that the low tracks straight E and then SE, if it tracked NE we'd get wrap around. 

 

Yeah, later hours track is still not favorable.

[BLI snowman]

I wondered about Monroe. Very small town. But yeah they are RIGHT up against the coast range.

 

Another thing I would mention is that by long term average PDX, SLE, and EUG average similar annual amounts of snow, but SLE and EUG do well in much different scenarios than PDX. So a lot of times a big snow storm in EUG and Salem are just not great snow patterns for PDX. That late January 2008 storm in Eugene is a great example, or March 2012, or 12/29/03.

 

But PDX does great with outflow events. They owned EUG and did better than SLE in Dec. 08, January 1998 was a nightmare for me, I didn't see 1 snowflake while PDX got buried. Over time it evens out. But a lot of times if its not snowing at your house, but it is 40-50 miles away you notice, on the flip side if it is snowing at your house and not in some town an hour down the road you don't notice. Neither Salem or Eugene had snow on 1-3-16.

The Portland area also has a safely higher snowfall median than the valley, since the gorge generally is a safer bet to generate regular snow producers while the valley relies more on strong upper level events.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you look at hour 84 of the NAM there is Low and some very cold air wanting to spill out over the pacific and slide toward the PNW... Southern stream seems more suppressed... Not sure it means much though.

 

nam_T850_namer_29.png

 

Well the other models have been kind of cutting that low off instead of digging it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Portland area also has a safely higher snowfall median than the valley, since the gorge generally is a safer bet to generate regular snow producers while the valley relies more on strong upper level events.

 

Growing up the only real major event I can recall missing out on at PDX was January 1998, but there were definitely some smaller events where PDX got snow and we didn't like February 94 and December 98.

[Skier B]

That 3 inches fell on an area the size of Burien.

Our location in Burien received 5".  Still have over 3" of dry, powdery snow!  Elevation is 380'.

[Dave]

For what it's worth.

Wiki gives 5.1" for 1971-2000 in Corvallis and 4.3" for Portland from 1981-2010, so a 20% increase but with a better time for Corvallis. I'm guessing the average for most of southern Willamette valley is 3" if they are right by the river, so it could be one of the better locations.

The NWS has a 4.9" average for Eugene, but the records are all screwed up since about 1995.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/eugclimate/pg83.pdf

 

Corvallis obs have been a mess for a while as well.

[Heavy Snow]

For what it's worth.

Wiki gives 5.1" for 1971-2000 in Corvallis and 4.3" for Portland from 1981-2010, so a 20% increase but with a better time for Corvallis. I'm guessing the average for most of southern Willamette valley is 3" if they are right by the river, so it could be one of the better locations.

Corvallis shows more snow there because it includes 1971-1980 and PDX doesn't which was a snowier decade. Its pretty much a linear trend. The farther north you are in the I-5 corridor, the more snow you will get than somebody south of you at the same elevation.

[BLI snowman]

Growing up the only real major event I can recall missing out on at PDX was January 1998, but there were definitely some smaller events where PDX got snow and we didn't like February 94 and December 98.

January 1980 was the all-timer. 24-30" across the north and eastern parts of the Portland metro, while the north valley had an inch or so of slop.

[Dave]

It has one. Click "Like" on a post, then hit "unlike".

That is true, but you can't accumulate dislikes.  Similarly, you can't accumulate snow down here in Eugene.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Corvallis shows more snow there because it includes 1971-1980 and PDX doesn't which was a snowier decade. Its pretty much a linear trend. The farther north you are in the I-5 corridor, the more snow you will get than somebody south of you at the same elevation.

 

Eugene is 400', PDX is 30'

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 in Puyallup?! Is that an error?

[Dave]

Eugene is 400', PDX is 30'

Come on man!  We're talking about Eugene here.  It is 420'.

[MossMan]

21 in Puyallup?! Is that an error?

PuyallupJon must have gotten his new mercury thermometer online!!

[HighlandExperience]

21 in Puyallup?! Is that an error?

Puyallup gets cold, they just get shadowed quite a bit.

[MossMan]

Down to 23 with a DP of 13.

[Heavy Snow]

Eugene is 400', PDX is 30'

Yeah but in general, YVR gets more snow than SEA, SEA gets more snow than PDX, PDX more than SLE and SLE more than Eugene even taking into account the elevation discrepancies. Locations closer together like Salem and Corvallis might be different story if you live at a higher elevation in Corvallis. Then you might get more snow there than in SLE like in February 2014.

[HighlandExperience]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah but in general, YVR gets more snow than SEA, SEA gets more snow than PDX, PDX more than SLE and SLE more than Eugene even taking into account the elevation discrepancies. Locations closer together like Salem and Corvallis might be different story if you live at a higher elevation in Corvallis. Then you might get more snow there than in SLE like in February 2014.

 

Yes generally true. Medford is close to Tim's elevation and gets about 5" of snow a year. 

[Heavy Snow]

Come on man! We're talking about Eugene here. It is 420'.

I didnt know Eugene was actually that high up there. I always thought the lowest parts of the Willamette Valley were close to sea level because of the Willamette River.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I didnt know Eugene was actually that high up there. I always thought the lowest parts of the Willamette Valley were close to sea level because of the Willamette River.

 

Rivers flow downhill...So river level at Eugene is about 400'. 110 miles north at Portland it is near Sea Level.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z GFS is running!!!