January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Dave]

Have they already sold out of frog legs?!

Frogs are divine creatures that should not be eaten.

 

I was able to score some cheetos and some pop tarts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 24 at Eugene already....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After today my mean for the month so far is down to 23.7. Not to shabby... A sub freezing monthly mean is certainly on the table...

[luvssnow_spokane]

So we are not going to have this tomorrow? 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm kind of starting to feel this event...Which of course may be its death sentence

[The Swamp]

A pic of Rod hill after busting every forecast in ten years.

Those are really bad looking meth sores.

[The Swamp]

NAM shows a little more snow for western WA tomorrow evening.

Do you think the NAM is right? Snow at Century Link?

[Front Ranger]

GFS also faster with onset of precip tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

I'm kind of starting to feel this event...Which of course may be its death sentence

That warm tongue is sensory bliss.

[Front Ranger]

Do you think the NAM is right? Snow at Century Link?

 

I would be surprised if we don't see some flakes there tomorrow. Probably not much accumulation, but you never know.

[umadbro]

I'm kind of starting to feel this event...Which of course may be its death sentence

Don't do it Andrew. Don't!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS snow maps are going to show more snow...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My fiancee just told me she is planning on picking her friend up at the airport at midnight, he is spending the night and then she is getting up and taking him to Eugene in the morning before she has to be back for work. I told her it sounded like a tremendous idea! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well upper airmass supports a snow level of 1500' in a mixed airmass by 4am Monday...So if PDX hasn't mixed out by then....

[Karl Bonner]

Wow....now all of a sudden next week is swinging back to cold again after we thought it was all over. 

 

And all it would take is a slight variation on the most recent Euro maps, to send another pulse of frigid arctic air southward out of Canada later next week.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like most of the island stayed dry today, the dewpoint stayed well below freezing and now the outflow has started kicking in again for Victoria. Doesn't look like the outflow will shut off until Sunday afternoon. Upper level temperatures also don't seem set to go above freezing until Sunday afternoon. There's a good chance any precipitation that falls before Sunday afternoon will come as snow in this region. It still looks a lot like the initial Dec 8/9th front to me, especially with what's shown on the 0z NAM.

[BLI snowman]

Low level cold pool is pretty impressive tonight, tomorrow should be pretty chilly.

[FroYoBro]

Low level cold pool is pretty impressive tonight, tomorrow should be pretty chilly.

High in the 20's would be exhilarating. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mid-week low trending south again...Face value its just not cold enough for snow...

[TT-SEA]

My fiancee just told me she is planning on picking her friend up at the airport at midnight, he is spending the night and then she is getting up and taking him to Eugene in the morning before she has to be back for work. I told her it sounded like a tremendous idea! 

 

??

[Front Ranger]

Mid-week low trending south again...

 

Yup. Temps are borderline, but looks like a good track for Portland area. Still gives snow up to central Sound before making landfall.

[Front Ranger]

??

 

Ménage à trois.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah mid-week low looking like an absolute non-event on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ménage à trois.

 

Har har...I'm not a good friend. I would have told my friend to shell out $50 for an airport shuttle...

[Front Ranger]

Yeah mid-week low looking like an absolute non-event on this run.

 

The track looks good...wouldn't put much stock in the paltry precip totals, if that's what you mean.

 

Next low is MUCH further north.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Funny to pick the frame that has the low just touching coast then click back to previous runs and watch how inconsistent it is still.

[BLI snowman]

High in the 20's would be exhilarating. 

 

Pretty good bet for us.

[Front Ranger]

GEM also faster/wetter with onset of precip.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

These south trending lows are getting a bit ridiculous. Not sure what it's going to take to get one of these coming onshore on the WA coast.

[Front Ranger]

GEM looks great for snow with the midweek low for Seattle/Tacoma/Olympia. Possibly further south, though more marginal temps.

[MossMan]

Having a heatwave tonight...23F currently!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't handle all this stress. I just want a great top tier arctic blast or +10C 850mb temps with no chances for anything!

[MossMan]

GEM looks great for snow with the midweek low for Seattle/Tacoma/Olympia. Possibly further south, though more marginal temps.

I want more snow in my yard.

[Front Ranger]

I want more snow in my yard.

 

I'll pass that on to the Euro. 

[Goducks09]

I just made it home.  hammered.  What is it looking like for snow in Downtown PDX?

[James Jones]

I just made it home.  hammered.  What is it looking like for snow in Downtown PDX?

Hopefully you were driving! 

[MossMan]

I'll pass that on to the Euro.

Thanks! Be sure to call him King Euro...might help my chances.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The elusive cold onshore flow returns at hour 384!

[Front Ranger]

GEM just a bit different than GFS in the mid/long range.

[MossMan]

GEM just a bit different than GFS in the mid/long range.

What does that mean for my yard?