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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Goducks09

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I feel like this is definitely trending away from a major event across NW Oregon...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The GEM almost always overdoes precip...but this is still WAY better than the 12z run.

 

Not that anyone should care, per Bryant.

 

get_orig_img (2).gif

As mentioned, my comment was regarding Seattle-North, which was also what our original discussion was about a few days ago. GEM has been horrible, but I hope it verifies for everyone down that way

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You look to be in a good spot for this one. Just a matter of getting enough cooling tonight.

It is 34 now with a bit of rain and an occasional flake right now, confirmed by the windshield spalt test.

 

My work schedule this week has me off tomorrow so it will be my first late night on snow alert in a couple years.

 

My daughter has school tomorrow and wants to stay up with me expecting school to be cancelled, I am considering that request currently.

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It is 34 now with a bit of rain and an occasional flake right now, confirmed by the windshield spalt test.

 

My work schedule this week has me off tomorrow so it will be my first late night on snow alert in a couple years.

 

My daughter has school tomorrow and wants to stay up with me expecting school to be cancelled, I am considering that request currently.

Being a new dad, this sounds like a great time :)

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It is 34 now with a bit of rain and an occasional flake right now, confirmed by the windshield spalt test.

 

My work schedule this week has me off tomorrow so it will be my first late night on snow alert in a couple years.

 

My daughter has school tomorrow and wants to stay up with me expecting school to be cancelled, I am considering that request currently.

 

 

Snow falling during the night when you don't have to work the next day is the best.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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As mentioned, my comment was regarding Seattle-North, which was also what our original discussion was about a few days ago. GEM has been horrible, but I hope it verifies for everyone down that way

 

GFS and GEM have both trended better with 0z runs. 

 

Given that, and the natural tendency with these things to drift north, there's certainly hope.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Definitely a southward trend.

 

 

Is the Portland metro not NW OR?

 

That is SW WA.

 

I think some areas will do well seriously. But looking like a lot less of a widespread event than 24 hours ago. West side metro looking solid though. South of Salem and east of 205 may be disappointed.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpg

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yikes, the WRF for NW Oregon definitely took a step back on the snow totals. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That is SW WA.

 

I think some areas will do well seriously. But looking like a lot less of a widespread event than 24 hours ago. West side metro looking solid though. South of Salem and east of 205 may be disappointed.

Seems like a weeniesh reaction to Salem no longer being quite the bullseye. You should still do well, things haven't trended away from that. 2-4" looks likely as a general rule of thumb from Salem to Kelso. That's a nice event.

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Seems like a weeniesh reaction to Salem no longer being quite the bullseye. You should still do well, things haven't trended away from that. 2-4" looks likely as a general rule of thumb from Salem to Kelso. That's a nice event.

 

I hope so. The WRF is uninspiring...King EURO could save us.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Absolutely, it may end up being an all nighter which I have missed dearly. Makes me feel like a kid again!!

 

 

On New Years Eve, my son was up until 4 a.m. and when I went to bed he told me that he just can't sleep when its snowing because he hates missing it.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah keep it right there. The 00z GEM gives east siders more hope.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011000/054/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

I'm not totally white on that map! There is hope!!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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GFS and GEM have both trended better with 0z runs.

 

Given that, and the natural tendency with these things to drift north, there's certainly hope.

We haven't really been following the natural northward trend which we are used to. As I said though, I hope the snowiest of solutions will verify for everyone down that way. My lack of optimism was never focused that far south, it has always been regarding Seattle-North

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On New Years Eve, my son was up until 4 a.m. and when I went to bed he told me that he just can't sleep when its snowing because he hates missing it. :)

That is me in a nutshell, I enjoy snow on the ground but there is just something magical about watching it fall, especially because of where I live.

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We haven't really been following the natural northward trend which we are used to. 

 

I'm talking about this particular deformation setup. As Tim said earlier, deformation zones often end up drifting further north than modeled.

 

I get that you're only concerned with areas north of Seattle, but that doesn't apply to me or many others on here.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I'm talking about this particular deformation setup. As Tim said earlier, deformation zones often end up drifting further north than modeled.

 

I get that you're only concerned with areas north of Seattle, but that doesn't apply to me or many others on here.

If I was only concerned with areas north of Seattle, I wouldn't be hoping the snowier solutions verify for everyone down south :) You're in a much different situation than all of us, because you don't live here at all. Overall though, the reason this board is mainly filled with Oregon/SW Wa posters currently is the fact that there isn't any hope for many up this way. Doesn't mean I want them to get screwed.
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Latest HRRR took back the band-look over King County from previous runs. Keeps it from Pierce-South and it's pretty weak as-is. Very light amounts across the board.

 

Interesting to see some models get better, some get worse right before the 'event'. Still uncertainty.

 

 

The latest experimental HRRR shows it right over King County in the morning...

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2017011001/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f15.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Latest HRRR took back the band-look over King County from previous runs. Keeps it from Pierce-South and it's pretty weak as-is. Very light amounts across the board.

 

Interesting to see some models get better, some get worse right before the event. Still uncertainty.

 

I've paid more attention to the HRRR this winter, and beyond 4 hours or so it pretty much sucks. That's why I don't reference it any more.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Just glad Klamath Falls and Bend are finally scoring!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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