Jump to content

January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Goducks09

Recommended Posts

Down to 28 at PDX. Gonna be a cold one. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS ALert?! lol

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_52.png

Chilly in the long unbelievable range... Like to see it though!

 

gfs_T850_us_53.png

 

gfs_T850_nwus_53.png

We will have one more chance of cold weather towards the end of January to mid February, leaning more towards the first 2 weeks of Feb. It's going to be hard to top what PDX just had but a more region wide event would be awesome. I'm hoping you guys up north get some snow before this winter ends.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Highs today

 

SLE: 35

EUG: 34

PDX: 33

HIO: 32

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lots of 384 hr maps posted today.

 

Just waiting for cold onshore flow in March... ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We will have one more chance of cold weather towards the end of January to mid February, leaning more towards the first 2 weeks of Feb. It's going to be hard to top what PDX just had but a more region wide event would be awesome. I'm hoping you guys up north get some snow before this winter ends.

"We will" sure is strong wording. Some reasoning would be nice

Link to comment
Share on other sites

THANK JEBUS!

 

It was 63° in Philly today.

I've got you beat. A scorching 71 degrees here.

 

At least we'll get some snow tomorrow night to make up for this blasphemy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm wondering if that east wind will break through and keep things mixed. Its been pretty steady 20+ mph at TTD

This is PDX we re talking about so most likely.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"We will" sure is strong wording. Some reasoning would be nice

I was more trying to say "one more chance", which could go either way. The "we will" part made it sound more definitive. There are some hints of colder weather in the long range and some knowledgeable weather people are also looking into this time period.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's what I'm thinking. We might make a pretty impressive dip if that holds off for a couple hours. Something below 15 wouldn't be out of the question, IMO

 

Yeah, the snow cover is only part of the equation. Gotta have calm or very light winds to achieve really low temps.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, the snow cover is only part of the equation. Gotta have calm or very light winds to achieve really low temps.

 

I was surprised I never got lower than 13 last week. I'm in a good spot for radiational cooling and it was a pretty cold airmass. I got down to 11 in January, 2013, though actually I'm not sure the airmass last week was much colder than that one.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm wondering if that east wind will break through and keep things mixed. Its been pretty steady 20+ mph at TTD

Hard to tell. We live well east of PDX off of 164th in Vancouver and it's calm here. Seems like it might be more of a gap wind, which can very often be confined within a few miles of the mouth of the Gorge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well tonights CFS shows a cool first and last week of February and a very cold March...This is a big switch for a lot of previous runs, so who knows. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think what happened in Portland last night is somewhat similar to what happened here on 12/1/2005.     Departing low with cold air coming behind it and a deformation zone on the back side that just pounded eastern King and Pierce counties.  

 

I had 17 inches of snow in about 8 hours night that.     

 

Someone here probably remembers the details... but the events last night in Portland reminded me of that event.   We had thundersnow that night as well,  

 

Yeah, it was fairly similar. That's the storm that gave me about 5" in Tacoma and Puyallup got 8". Mostly fell in about a 4 hour period.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A few numbers to watch...

 

PDX Record low for 

 

1/12: 13 - 1963. Unlikely, but who knows if the wind dies.

1/13  14 - 1950

 

Vancouver's record low tomorrow is 7 set in 1930. They hit 13 this morning so its conceivable they could come close. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, it was fairly similar. That's the storm that gave me about 5" in Tacoma and Puyallup got 8". Mostly fell in about a 4 hour period.

 

Folks in Portland remember 12/1/05 as a huge forecast bust after the NWS issued a winter storm warning and we ended up with 40 degree rain...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some departures today, some of which could change before midnight.

 

KVOU -18

PDX   -15

SLE   -11

EUG  -8

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just not enough teeth to our airmasses this century. Highs in the 20's under full sunshine has been a rare sight here since December 1998. This one, despite its glory, might not even deliver a sub-32 high.  

 

Nov 2010 and Feb 2011 both would have certainly delivered 20s highs had they occurred a little later/earlier. 

 

As it was, PDX just barely made it out of the 20s with both of those.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HIO just plunged to 12

 

Scappoose just bumped from 17 to 23... Gonna be that kinda night!

 

#temptracking

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What are your thoughts on inversion potential the next few days? December 2005 on steroids?

We'll see how or if things get capped off in the basin. The best cold pools are those that start with clear nights and cap off with persistent stratus.

 

Of course the difference with this would be the fact even a strengthening inversion would bring some moderation as we're NOT starting from a mild start.

  • Like 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I didn't take any of these pics but I thought I'd share them. The first pic is from UBC on January 2nd I believe. The second pic is from early january which clearly shows the shaftzone known as Bellingham. The third is from last weekend in central Vancouver. It's been an amazing ~35 days for Vancouver. It's been a good run. Hopefully late January to early February provides a region-wide event ala 2008. Certainly no reason why we can't.

1 resize.jpg

2 resize.jpg

3 resize.jpg

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My god, today was gorgeous.

It was. I was coming down the hill from Silverton Hospital today, we had a low stratus deck that had yet to clear, but looking out west over the valley you could see the edge of the clouds and the shimmering snow covered coast range beyond. It was breath taking. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That doesn't always necessarily mean winds at PDX in a gap wind setup like this. Troutdale was gusting to 35 mph much of last night while PDX was calm.

The snow cover increases the chances they'll decouple fully. There will be lots of little inversions forming with the low level moisture.

  • Like 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...