January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Been quite the dry winter so far for the northern half of the PNW. Clear suppressed jet signature.

 

[FroYoBro]

That doesn't always necessarily mean winds at PDX in a gap wind setup like this. Troutdale was gusting to 35 mph much of last night while PDX was calm.

 

They only need a small amount of time with calm winds to get an impressive low tonight, 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temps are bouncing around so much. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been quite the dry winter so far for the northern half of the PNW. Clear suppressed jet signature.

 

30dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

Fortunately it has been very moist in the places that need it the most...

[Jesse]

The snow cover increases the chances they'll decouple fully. There will be lots of little inversions forming with the low level moisture.

 

 

They only need a small amount of time with calm winds to get an impressive low tonight, 

 

Indeed.

[Front Ranger]

I'm feeling a Friday the 13th low of 13 at PDX.

[Jesse]

My god, today was gorgeous.

Absolutely stunning.

[Jesse]

Some pictures from the Fort Vancouver Historic Site today.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Been quite the dry winter so far for the northern half of the PNW. Clear suppressed jet signature.

 

30dPNormWRCC-NW.png

And yet the mountain snowpack is doing great because they have had essentially zero rain.

[bainbridgekid]

Fortunately it has been very moist in the places that need it the most...

That's what she said . . .

 

My mom and dad are visiting San Diego right now though and are pissed. It didn't help when I told them it was sunny here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And Vancouver bounces down to 12.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pictures from the Fort Vancouver Historic Site today.

 

IMG_8365.PNGIMG_8366.PNGIMG_8367.PNGIMG_8368.PNGIMG_8370.PNG

 

Beautiful. Now we know what it looked there in January 1862.

[Front Ranger]

And yet the mountain snowpack is doing great because they have had essentially zero rain.

 

Yep, and got off to a strong start to the season.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I've got to say, as much as it sucks to have missed so many opportunities up here it's nice to see areas that don't normally get much snow like Portland / Vancouver BC getting hit hard. Perhaps there's hope yet for this climate; that said it would be pretty brutal if we get another snowless cold snap in the Victoria - Seattle area later this month. For Victoria so far I'd rank this winter firmly in the bottom half of our winters over the past decade for enjoyment.

[Jesse]

Beautiful. Now we know what it looked there in January 1862.

 

Lol. I was actually having some similar thoughts. You get a strong feeling of the old time PNW walking around there. Much of January 1862 probably had even more snow on the ground though.

[Jesse]

I've got to say, as much as it sucks to have missed so many opportunities up here it's nice to see areas that don't normally get much snow like Portland / Vancouver BC getting hit hard. Perhaps there's hope yet for this climate; that said it would be pretty brutal if we get another snowless cold snap in the Victoria - Seattle area later this month. For Victoria so far I'd rank this winter firmly in the bottom half of our winters over the past decade for enjoyment.

 

You must rank sustained cold pretty low in that case. Has been one of our best for that in a few decades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If anything close to this verifies there will be major flooding of small streams on Wednesday... It will add to the lore of this winter...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011300/gfs_apcpn24_nwus_20.png

[Front Ranger]

You must rank sustained cold pretty low in that case. Has been one of our best for that in a few decades.

 

I agree that the sustained cold has absolutely been impressive for the region. Highly unusual, more wintry than most winters.

 

But you're not going to convince those that have mostly missed out on snow that they should rank this winter highly.

 

Most Portland area posters were not having rosy thoughts about this winter through the end of last week, sustained cold or not.

[Jesse]

I agree that the sustained cold has absolutely been impressive.

 

But you're not going to convince those that have mostly missed out on snow that they should rank this winter highly.

 

Most Portland area posters were not having rosy thoughts about this winter through the end of last week, sustained cold or not.

 

I was already.

 

But yeah, I get it, most people's winter weather interests are fairly snow-centric.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was already.

 

But yeah, I get it, most people's winter weather interests are fairly snow-centric.

 

I used to be strictly into cold without snow...Now I am more into snow than the cold...Priorities change I suppose. 

[Jesse]

I used to be strictly into cold without snow...Now I am more into snow than the cold...Priorities change I suppose. 

 

It's a pretty close tie for me.

[Goducks09]

Sure is! http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=a1&product=true_color&date=2017_01_12_012&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA1&resolution=250m

 

5qRWj2L - Imgur.jpg

 

Awesome!!!  Thank you, Kayla!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's a pretty close tie for me.

 

I still love cold, but it is a lot more pedestrian to me. I had a 27/11 in January 2013, a 21/2 that December, a 23/13 in Feb 2014. So a 24/13 last week is nice, but its not really that exciting. A good snowfall still really gets the juices flowing. 

[luminen]

Been quite the dry winter so far for the northern half of the PNW. Clear suppressed jet signature.

 

30dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

Drier winters are always better than wet ones. Dry=cold/moderately snowy unless you're in Nain, Newfoundland or Hokkaido where it snows an insane amount.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its a shame the high clouds from the weak warm front moving by to the north are going to ruin radiational cooling tonight. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You must rank sustained cold pretty low in that case. Has been one of our best for that in a few decades.

 

I'm more interested in snow and absolute anomalies, large and/or long lasting snowfalls or extermely low day time highs (indicative of a very cold upper level airmass). I also enjoy our more typical NW storminess with strong winds/heavy rains. None of the airmasses this winter have been that impressive in their own right, we're obviously lacking snow, and things haven't been any better than average in terms of storms. Nov 2006, Dec 2008, Nov 2010 and Feb 2011 were far more impressive Arctic airmasses here, while Jan 2007 and Jan 2012 were better for snowfall. Perhaps the next few weeks will be more interesting up this way.

[luminen]

Some pictures from the Fort Vancouver Historic Site today.

 

IMG_8365.PNGIMG_8366.PNGIMG_8367.PNGIMG_8368.PNGIMG_8370.PNG

 

Snow makes everything better!

[epiceast]

And yet the mountain snowpack is doing great because they have had essentially zero rain.

http://i.imgur.com/yjM2jqD.jpgOnly low elevations. Not where it matters(above 4k'). Fortunately the firehouse is about to get turned on.

[Skagit Weather]

It's impressive how bad radiational cooling has been up here this winter. Normally, my morning lows are comparable with most of the sheltered outlying areas and are at least 5-7 degrees cooler than KSEA, but for some reason this winter almost every night lows have underperformed. There's always a 1 mph wind that doesn't die or the clouds move in right before it cools off or the air begins to moisten raising dew points. I put in a new temperature and humidity sensor at the beginning of the summer and I would think that it was the problem if all the other sensors in the vicinity didn't basically agree with mine. Of course having no snow cover doesn't help as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z goes with massive windstorm then cold for the long range. 

[TT-SEA]

Awesome pics today.

[MossMan]

Currently 22 after a high of 31.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Longest i have ever seen snow on the ground in my life here. Since December 5th there has been snow on the ground. Amazing for this part of the world.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Longest i have ever seen snow on the ground in my life here. Since December 5th there has been snow on the ground. Amazing for this part of the world.

 

I think I am at 27 days here. Sometime next week I will see bare ground for probably 2-4 days...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 10 now at HIO, up to 25 at PDX, down to 19 at McMinnville. 

[Kayla]

8:53pm area temp update:

 

PDX-   22º

VUO - 16º

HIO -  11º

[Phil]

Obviously it's in the clown range, but verbatim, the end of the 00z GFS would be a death sentence for the PV..major SSW.

 

Haven't had a "major" SSW since 2008/09, though 2012/13 debatably came quite close.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Obviously it's in the clown range, but verbatim, the end of the 00z GFS would be a death sentence for the PV..major SSW.

 

Haven't had a "major" SSW since 2008/09, though 2012/13 debatably came quite close.

 

I have a feeling come April we'll be begging for spring!

[Bryant]

I have a feeling come April we'll be begging for spring!

Maybe you guys in PDX/SW Wa will be

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs ensembles took a notably chilly turn in the long range.