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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Goducks09

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I really think the potential for late this month/early next month is sky high.

This a gut feeling, or do you have other signs in your mind pointing towards cold? You're a very respected poster on here, and rarely do you make a comment regarding "sky high" potential, so please share :)

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Amazingly SEA has a shot at the coldest Jan 1 - Jan 15 since 1950 if tomorrow is cold enough. The only reason this possibility is on the table is because they underperformed in 1993 and 1979. Even 1963 wasn't as cold as this will be. After today they are running around 32.4 for the first 14 days of January and 1993 ended up at 32.9 for the first 15 days. Most of the great January cold waves since 1950 have been in the second half of the month or in the middle and final third.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No such luck up here of course. The timing of it was perfect though, watching it dump snow on Christmas morning on top of the foot that's already on the ground is always going to be difficult to top.

That was so the topper...the heavy snow on Christmas morning was amazing in 2008 much like 1990.

That being said I would gladly take a mid Jan 2007 or 2012 or the late Jan 1996 as well. Those were fun times up here! I would also be ok dokey with a Feb. 1989 (I think it was) or a Feb. 2011.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I'll try to post most says. I'm still pretty sour, but getting a little bit better.

Although I'm new here I absolutely enjoy your enthusiasm and your input on our weather. Of course I do understand the frustration and mixed emotion when we just keep getting missed! I was very happy to see you posting again.

 

Another Jim

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This a gut feeling, or do you have other signs in your mind pointing towards cold? You're a very respected poster on here, and rarely do you make a comment regarding "sky high" potential, so please share :)

It's been a pretty strong feeling for me since mid-December. I didn't think much of early January and even with it doing as well at it has I keep thinking late this month/early next month has something more in store. I like the fact the cold so robustly is retreating to Alaska.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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So far NWS Medford hasn't hinted at anything huge when snow returns, but man the AFD's are getting gigantic.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The temp is falling like a raped ape this evening after a brief spike into the low 40s today. Back down to 34 now.

 

Too bad now the lake is frozen over and it's about to warm up. It would have been good to walk on in a few more days.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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So far NWS Medford hasn't hinted at anything huge when snow returns, but man the AFD's are getting gigantic.

Your avatar is insane!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Your avatar is insane!

I know I love that avatar

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The temp is falling like a raped ape this evening after a brief spike into the low 40s today. Back down to 34 now.

 

Too bad now the lake is frozen over and it's about to warm up. It would have been good to walk on in a few more days.

Yeah after a high of 39 I am back down to 28 already.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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FWIW the GFS ensembles seem to point toward a ridge developing over Alaska by the end of the 11-15 (along with the ridge over Hudson Bay)...however it's at odds with the Euro EPS and CMC which keep the ridging over Hudson Bay/N Quebec and a negative tilt trough over the NE Pacific. GFS seems to be trending toward the CFSv2 progression as we close out Jan but with all three ensemble suites indicating a west coast ridge (or a ridge just offshore) and a broad trough in the central/eastern US I am pretty bearish on cold for the PNW at least in the 11-15 day timeframe. I think we'll have a 3-5 day window of coolish temps in the 6-10...the pattern is suggestive of 40/30 or so for PDX and SEA for the coldest days.

Looks like a bit of a +PNA gets going, however with the -EPO developing in the 11-15 we may see a window for cold toward days 16-20 (very early Feb) as folks like Phil have mentioned.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Given the -3 to -4 F anomalies currently forecast in the 6-10 and 11-15 day timeframes I think it's safe to say PDX will be decently below normal for the month of Jan...right now I'm thinking a -5 or -6 F departure for the month, or roughly 35 F mean temp.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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It's been a pretty strong feeling for me since mid-December. I didn't think much of early January and even with it doing as well at it has I keep thinking late this month/early next month has something more in store. I like the fact the cold so robustly is retreating to Alaska.

 

The fact that the +PNA you were also feeling for late December/early January didn't develop doesn't change anything?

A forum for the end of the world.

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Given the -3 to -4 F anomalies currently forecast in the 6-10 and 11-15 day timeframes I think it's safe to say PDX will be decently below normal for the month of Jan...right now I'm thinking a -5 or -6 F departure for the month, or roughly 35 F mean temp.

 

The last time either PDX or SEA had a monthly mean below 35 was Dec 1990. 

 

I'm rooting for that. And a big snowstorm for King County, with a sharp dropoff for foothill locations.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Awesome pics Tyler

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Down in Eugene for the civil war basketball game, scored some free tickets to the game because my fiancée s cousin is in town for a recruiting visit. So freaking cold, surprised there is still some snow on the ground here. 2nd sub freezing high here in a row today.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The fact that the +PNA you were also feeling for late December/early January didn't develop doesn't change anything?

Not really. It was my initial rationale things would turn colder around the 20th with a more traditional retrogression. But at this point it just has the feel of being an inevitability that a cold blocking pattern will set up around the end of the month.

 

Time will smell!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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00z GFS isn't pretty if you want blocking to return in early February. Probably a fluke run, though.

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Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a respectable 75 acres and 75' deep.

 

Lake Whatcom was skatable on the north end, for the first time since January 1993. For those that don't know, the lake is 13 miles long and 350' deep. We broke the ice about 50 yards out and it was 3-4" thick. Was quite an adrenaline rush to experience skating on a lake of that size.

 

http://i.imgur.com/dtMh8zYh.jpg

That's awesome.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a respectable 75 acres and 75' deep.

 

Lake Whatcom was skatable on the north end, for the first time since January 1993. For those that don't know, the lake is 13 miles long and 350' deep. We broke the ice about 50 yards out and it was 3-4" thick. Was quite an adrenaline rush to experience skating on a lake of that size.

 

http://i.imgur.com/dtMh8zYh.jpg

Fun stuff!! People are now walking across Lake Goodwin...first time since 1989! Though it was nearly as thick in 1993 I think.
  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a respectable 75 acres and 75' deep.

 

Lake Whatcom was skatable on the north end, for the first time since January 1993. For those that don't know, the lake is 13 miles long and 350' deep. We broke the ice about 50 yards out and it was 3-4" thick. Was quite an adrenaline rush to experience skating on a lake of that size.

 

http://i.imgur.com/dtMh8zYh.jpg

That is so cool. Hoping we go back to cold weather quickly after this warmup. Maybe the ice can recover again before winter is over for good. :D

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I actually think the 0z GFS looked like an improvement over previous runs. More of a dirty ridge (over the NE Pacific) look to it.

 

It's going to be almost strange finally going into mild temperatures. It hasn't been 50 here since November.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I actually think the 0z GFS looked like an improvement over previous runs. More of a dirty ridge (over the NE Pacific) look to it.

 

It's going to be almost strange finally going into mild temperatures. It hasn't been 50 here since November.

I haven't hit 50 since November 28th. Pretty amazing how cold it's been since December 4th

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I actually think the 0z GFS looked like an improvement over previous runs. More of a dirty ridge (over the NE Pacific) look to it.

 

It's going to be almost strange finally going into mild temperatures. It hasn't been 50 here since November.

I'm only seeing one shot at 50+ next week (Wednesday). Looks like it cools off again after that.

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Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a respectable 75 acres and 75' deep.

 

Lake Whatcom was skatable on the north end, for the first time since January 1993. For those that don't know, the lake is 13 miles long and 350' deep. We broke the ice about 50 yards out and it was 3-4" thick. Was quite an adrenaline rush to experience skating on a lake of that size.

 

Impressive stuff. Large lakes in this area are frozen over too. At least this winter is giving us a taste of what used to happen and obviously still can happen.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm only seeing one shot at 50+ next week (Wednesday). Looks like it cools off again after that.

It would be nice to thread the needle and avoid the 50, but that would be a stretch.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm only seeing one shot at 50+ next week (Wednesday). Looks like it cools off again after that.

Maybe 1 or 2 days of well above temps than slightly above at worst.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This winter has really whetted my appetite for more cold winters in the coming years. No doubt the snow will come if we can keep coming up with ones like this. I'm working on a spread sheet showing all of the Arctic outbreaks for Dec 26 through Feb 5 and will post it when I'm done. It will include duration, cold intensity, total snowfall, snowfall going in, snowfall going out, etc. This will only be based on Seattle records, but it gives a good feel for what has happened in the past. Pretty remarkable how many events have exceeded this in one, some, or all categories. This one has been kind of an old time event however.

 

If this is being caused by the lower solar activity which really began with the last cycle one can only imagine what might be forthcoming. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence the little ice age was largely driven by low solar activity causing more frequent and longer lasting blocking regimes over the NE Pacific and the North Atlantic. We only have records for the NW from the tail end of the little ice age, but those are compelling to say the least. I would love to know what happened here in the 1600s.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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