Jump to content

January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Goducks09

Recommended Posts

I think 17-18 will suck compared to this winter but 18-19 should be a decent one. You know, the 8/9 thingy.  :)

 

As long as I get a lot of wet snow in March and April I am good...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to the 00z NAM, this is the total precip that falls over PDX that is frozen. Several of the bands just split and fall apart as they lift north. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020100/namconus_apcpn_nwus_23.png

 

 

Basically nothing. By the time any real precip arrives, it is shown as all rain.

 

 

NAM thinks no one gets any real snow out of this on the west side of the cascades.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020100/namconus_asnow_nwus_29.png

 

 

 

The 3km 00z NAM has a deformation band ahead of the low trying to move north into PDX but it gets obliterated by the dry east winds.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017020100/nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_33.png

 

I looked at the pivotal weather website and it shows the deformation band from the 00z NAM 3km a little better. Here is what it shows at Thursday 2am. It shows a solid band from about midnight to 4am. This could throw a wrench in the forecast if this materializes. It's a long shot but you never know. The deformation band looks solid from the maps.

 

http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017020100/034/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png

  • Like 1

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Two camps on the GFS ensembles, one warm, one cold.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was expecting more of an outflow, but I barely noticed it today even as dewpoints fell to 14F. A much nicer transition to the cool dry airmass than some of the outflows we had in January. I'm still optimistic about the overrunning event on Friday if we can avoid getting screwed on the precipitation again. The 0z ECMWF looks a little better than the 0z GFS so far on every frame, I like that it has the low coming in a bit further south on Friday. The ECMWF has definitely been the most consistent of the models with the upcoming event so far.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I looked at the pivotal weather website and it shows the deformation band from the 00z NAM 3km a little better. Here is what it shows at Thursday 2am. It shows a solid band from about midnight to 4am. This could throw a wrench in the forecast if this materializes. It's a long shot but you never know. The deformation band looks solid from the maps.

 

http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017020100/034/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png

Interesting find. It would be a pleasant surprise if we got a half decent deformation band like that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think 17-18 will suck compared to this winter but 18-19 should be a decent one. You know, the 8/9 thingy.  :)

 

It's become clear that the most important factor for 21st century PNW winters is getting a new president elected.

 

Therefore, no one here should be rooting for a second term of Trump.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was expecting more of an outflow, but I barely noticed it today even as dewpoints fell to 14F. A much nicer transition to the cool dry airmass than some of the outflows we had in January. I'm still optimistic about the overrunning event on Friday if we can avoid getting screwed on the precipitation again. The 0z ECMWF looks a little better than the 0z GFS so far on every frame, I like that it has the low coming in a bit further south on Friday. The ECMWF has definitely been the most consistent of the models with the upcoming event so far.

 

Without seeing the snow output, certainly looks pretty good for areas north of Seattle.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Without seeing the snow output, certainly looks pretty good for areas north of Seattle.

 

Yes... pretty good from Seattle northward.   This mostly occurs Friday.   Too warm for lowland snow on Saturday on this run.

 

ecmwf_snow_24_washington_15.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes... pretty good from Seattle northward.   This mostly occurs Friday.   Too warm for lowland snow on Saturday on this run.

 

ecmwf_snow_24_washington_15.png

 

Nice, I do see a lot of potential with this overrun; we have a low that started its journey just north of Hawaii running into a cold/dry airmass with a nice track and without much time for scouring. Unfortunately, it looks like it caved to the NAM/GFS solution afterward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The big deformation band snowstorm on 12Z ECMWF for next Monday... gone on the 00Z run.

My fault...I told everyone we were going to have big time snow next week.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My fault...I told everyone we were going to have big time snow next week.

Noooo I take the blame for saying this was a joke and turn into a bust and told everyone that this would not verify in my pure panicked sarcastic tone where everyone thinks I am serious.... ;) . I am to blame.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course we get screwed again. This entire winter has been a joke.

Big time. Can't even get a half a** windstorm out of this horrifically dull winter. Bring on the sun and warmth.
  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow the models have been horrible all winter long, even the King Euro has been a joke...SUN AND WARMTH!!! I'm so done with this crap fest of a winter. :) Might need to buy a new boat! Retail therapy!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It still doesn't end up looking too bad out at hour 168 (better than the GFS anyway), though this time frame seems kind of irrelevant now with how unstable things become. Go GEM!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

 

I think the main issue is that the blocking is just too far north overall in this pattern. 

 

You want better offshore height rises, instead of these floating blocks that are centered squarely over Alaska.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the main issue is that the blocking is just too far north overall in this pattern.

 

You want better offshore height rises, instead of these floating blocks that are centered squarely over Alaska.

Better offshore height rises have proven to favor a southern storm track this winter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...