January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Total snow through next Wednesday...

 

Whopping 2" at my house!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Big time. Can't even get a half a** windstorm out of this horrifically dull winter. Bring on the sun and warmth.

Shhhhh Jesse will get mad at you for calling this a dull winter. It is "historic" .... remember? All that matters is how many cold days we get to make it amazing and special. Your negativity is getting old!

[Front Ranger]

Better offshore height rises have proven to favor a southern storm track this winter

 

Yeah, it's worked out that way, but I would say several of the blocks have been fairly top-heavy, which allowed that southern stream to undercut them pretty quickly.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Whopping 2" at my house!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stop bragging!!  If I add up all the snow I have gotten over the past 5 years it is about that much. -- Just teasing BTW

[TT-SEA]

Shhhhh Jesse will get mad at you for calling this a dull winter. It is "historic" .... remember? All that matters is how many cold days we get to make it amazing and special. Your negativity is getting old!

 

 

It was pretty historic for the Portland area... he lives there and experienced it.   You would feel the same in his position.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Of course we get screwed again. This entire winter has been a joke.

Well, at least we have long stretches of cold.... It is not that bad. Could have been worse. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It was pretty historic for the Portland area... he lives there and experienced it.   You would feel the same in his position.  

Kinda been pretty awesome for you too. You are biased.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I think the main issue is that the blocking is just too far north overall in this pattern. 

 

You want better offshore height rises, instead of these floating blocks that are centered squarely over Alaska.

 

It's a very unstable pattern that can lead to large snowfalls and epic busts, the latter more often than the former. But then the big PDX event in January came from a top heavy but lower amplitude block that collapsed onto a similar low shoving it through Oregon. This just hasn't been our year.

[TT-SEA]

Big time. Can't even get a half a** windstorm out of this horrifically dull winter. Bring on the sun and warmth.

 

 

The 00Z ECMWF shows what looks like a potential windstorm-type pattern to me later next week... if you squint.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-WXhEYN.png

[Front Ranger]

Bottom line: let's see what happens on Thursday.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It still doesn't end up looking too bad out at hour 168 (better than the GFS anyway), though this time frame seems kind of irrelevant now with how unstable things become. Go GEM!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

Are you serious?   LMAO! cmon!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The NAVGEM continues to live in a parallel universe.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020100/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_22.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

The NAVGEM continues to live in a parallel universe.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020100/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_22.png

Yep.. that is why it is a useless!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Are you serious?   LMAO! cmon!

 

About the GEM or the irrelevance of the ECMWF out to hour 168?

[Jesse]

Not to spread false hope but there is still a chance things trend favorable again IMO.

 

We have had several big model heartbreak nights his winter only to have things ultimately trend colder later on. Although maybe not quite as spectacular as originally advertised.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 00Z ECMWF shows what looks like a potential windstorm-type pattern to me later next week... if you squint.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-WXhEYN.png

god I hope sooooo at least something to root for that might actually happen. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not to spread false hope but there is still a chance things trend favorable again IMO.

 

We have had several big model heartbreak nights his winter only to have things ultimately trend colder later on. Although maybe not quite as spectacular as originally advertised.

....and the puget sound still got screwed.  So, who knows, it could improve... whatever that means. 

[Front Ranger]

Not to spread false hope but there is still a chance things trend favorable again IMO.

 

We have had several big model heartbreak nights his winter only to have things ultimately trend colder later on. Although maybe not quite as spectacular as originally advertised.

 

Right. I mean it's easy to overlook the fact that the 0z Euro is pretty close to showing a big regional snowstorm Friday/Saturday, just because it's not near as good as the previous run. Wouldn't take a radical shift to at least bring more widespread lowland snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am down to 27.6.  Another exciting cold stat for the books. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Right. I mean it's easy to overlook the fact that the 0z Euro is pretty close to showing a big regional snowstorm Friday/Saturday, just because it's not near as good as the previous run. Wouldn't take a radical shift to at least bring more widespread lowland snow.

 

 

True... 

[luvssnow_spokane]

About the GEM or the irrelevance of the ECMWF out to hour 168?

GEM

[VancouverIslandSouth]

GEM

 

It's the only model left that doesn't split the vortex too far out into the GOA. It's also a terribly inconsistent model, if our hope rests on the GEM we're screwed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well the 06z is a step back in the right direction...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So the final numbers are in on January and in W. Oregon it was the coldest January since:

 

Eugene: 1993

Salem  :  1985

PDX    : 1979

[MossMan]

Well the 06z is a step back in the right direction...

Sarcasm or...? I don't have time to check.

[FroYoBro]

The east wind is pretty impressive for Tigard this morning. Going to be a very windy day. 

[ShawniganLake]

Sarcasm or...? I don't have time to check.

Nothing epic. But improved for sure.

[Bryant]

Sarcasm or...? I don't have time to check.

Takes just as long to took briefly at the model as it does to type a new post.

 

6z GFS pushes the cold furthe south. Doubt it's a trend though, I've seen the 6z do this too many times after a 00z flip

[snow_wizard]

My monthly average ended up at 36.1 putting it in a 3 way tie for coldest January of the century with 2007 and 2013. Weird. December also averaged 36.1. A pretty cold two month average.

[snow_wizard]

Takes just as long to took briefly at the model as it does to type a new post.

 

6z GFS pushes the cold furthe south. Doubt it's a trend though, I've seen the 6z do this too many times after a 00z flip

I think we'll pretty much know on the 12z. Certainly by tonight.

[ShawniganLake]

I think we'll pretty much know on the 12z. Certainly by tonight.

I'll bet things come in further south than the 0z last night showed. Just a hunch.

[Bryant]

I'll bet things come in further south than the 0z last night showed. Just a hunch.

One can hope at least

[Timmy]

Wasn't Phil bragging about how he called this yesterday? "This" meaning the cold and snow next week?

[Brennan]

My monthly average ended up at 36.1 putting it in a 3 way tie for coldest January of the century with 2007 and 2013. Weird. December also averaged 36.1. A pretty cold two month average.

 

January 2013? I don't recall that month being cold AT ALL... I mean, we skated on Lake Whatcom this month, and it was only the coldest Jan since 2013? This D**n month needs to get its act together... 

[Bryant]

Wasn't Phil bragging about how he called this yesterday? "This" meaning the cold and snow next week?

He was referring to the -EPO, which will verify. Why do you care? Screw snow

[Bryant]

January 2013? I don't recall that month being cold AT ALL... I mean, we skated on Lake Whatcom this month, and it was only the coldest Jan since 2013? This D**n month needs to get its act together...

Been a lot colder up this way, just hasn't helped much in the snow department unfortunately

[Brennan]

Been a lot colder up this way, just hasn't helped much in the snow department unfortunately

 

Still waiting for your avatar to be an accurate depiction of an upcoming pattern...

[TT-SEA]

Its February.  

[Timmy]

Its February.

If your dafodyls haven't bloomed yet, it's been a good winter ?

[Jesse]

January 2013? I don't recall that month being cold AT ALL... I mean, we skated on Lake Whatcom this month, and it was only the coldest Jan since 2013? This D**n month needs to get its act together...

Is Lake Whatcom in Covington?