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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Goducks09

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GFS pretty much the same through hour 48. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Still a few flakes coming down here, ended with 1" so everything is covered, even the roads. Also no more dripping at 31 degrees.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Out to hour 102 on the 12z GFS and looks nothing like the euro. Southern stream still wins and it warms up late in the week. Amazing how two models can be so far apart. I wonder if they will converge in the middle and give us what we all want. Enough long lasting cold with snow.

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Out to hour 102 on the 12z GFS and looks nothing like the euro. Southern stream still wins and it warms up late in the week. Amazing how two models can be so far apart. I wonder if they will converge in the middle and give us what we all want. Enough long lasting cold with snow.

 

I'd put my money on the Euro at this point. The Euro has done quite well this month and in situations where the Euro sticks to its guns in the medium range, always bet on the Euro.

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Out to hour 102 on the 12z GFS and looks nothing like the euro. Southern stream still wins and it warms up late in the week. Amazing how two models can be so far apart. I wonder if they will converge in the middle and give us what we all want. Enough long lasting cold with snow.

102 hours out is just too much for the models to handle right now. I do think someone will get clobbered when the time comes...just a matter of who...stay tuned! Will be interesting to see what the Canada and Europe spit out.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I'd put my money on the Euro at this point. The Euro has done quite well this month and in situations where the Euro sticks to its guns in the medium range, always bet on the Euro.

Yes, I also bet on the euro but it literally just flipped last night back to a cold solution after many runs showing the same thing the GFS is. I hope for a middle of the road outcome but honestly anything is possible as consistent runs are not enough to believe anything other than the averages. Climo usually wins, but we shall see.

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Snow potential looks phenomenal for most of Oregon out to hr 108... not so good for the puget sound

Looks a little warm to me, maybe zr

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Komo 4 reported half a foot of snow in south seattle. Just a dusting here north of seattle.

Just ran the 8 hour radar loop before seeing this and was thinking a small area of South Seattle must have been clobbered. CZ sat over them for hours.

 

Impressive.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Arctic front should come blasting through Vancouver in a few hours.

 

Pretty impressive dew points being modelled for the next couple of days... Vancouver could be seeing dew points as low as -5 F

Dew points are dropping fast in the eastern valley as the outflow kicks in. No sign of a temp drop though, and not really any cold air in the canyon at this point.
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Mark Nelsen nailed it again for most spots, including including elevations above 800-1000ft where he said there would be some accume.  He said yesterday that the NWS was not right in their assessment.  He had a friendly banter with his good friend Steve Pierce another local met who's pretty good and challenged him as well.  When will people learn that with a south wind you WILL NOT get decent snowfall.  You might get some intitially but the SW always wins.  Good job Mark.

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Mark Nelsen nailed it again for most spots, including including elevations above 800-1000ft where he said there would be some accume. He said yesterday that the NWS was not right in their assessment. He had a friendly banter with his good friend Steve Pierce another local met who's pretty good and challenged him as well. When will people learn that with a south wind you WILL NOT get decent snowfall. You might get some intitially but the SW always wins. Good job Mark.

Steve Pierce isn't a met.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Nice to see Sea-Tac score since that's the official station for Seattle.

 

attachicon.gif518vc00252.jpg

 

I ended up with a dusting here just north of Bellingham near Whatcom Community College. I'm pretty sure I faired worse than almost 90% of Whatcom County. 

 

I wouldn't care as much had SnowWizard scored, but it's quite bitter this morning. 

 

However, his snowcast was pretty D**n good, just got unlucky in his particular location. AGAIN.

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Beautiful start to 2017 here in the West Hills! Just measured and I have picked up 5" so far and looks like I might pick up another inch or so before everything is said and done. Looking forward to see how cold my temps can get now with solid snow cover going into this week!

 

1dNm9U7 - Imgur.jpg

QEg9rSF - Imgur.jpg

5NX9aST - Imgur.jpg

5BBjsGG - Imgur.jpg

  • Like 9

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I remember the days when an arctic blast/front mean raging north winds and bitter cold wind chills.

 

Now, maybe that is on it's way today but it sure doesn't seem like it.

 

Petering out would be my guess.

 

Didn't clear customs.

 

Sliding east of the cascades.

Going to ooze in slowly...thats the way it's done these days. Just took a drive, roads are bad up here even with just the inch we had. Foggy as well and 30 degrees.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Mark Nelsen nailed it again for most spots, including including elevations above 800-1000ft where he said there would be some accume.  He said yesterday that the NWS was not right in their assessment.  He had a friendly banter with his good friend Steve Pierce another local met who's pretty good and challenged him as well.  When will people learn that with a south wind you WILL NOT get decent snowfall.  You might get some intitially but the SW always wins.  Good job Mark.

 

He did great for elevations below 700' but he was only calling for about 1" of snow for the west hills. See pics for end results!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Awesome pics above Kayla!    Here is the scene here this morning... 

15776950_1195132963888243_45102542806077

 

15844914_1195132990554907_75985106655155

 

15776674_1195133163888223_54381834986537

 

Beautiful!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Awesome pics above Kayla!    Here is the scene here this morning... 

15776950_1195132963888243_45102542806077

 

15844914_1195132990554907_75985106655155

 

15776674_1195133163888223_54381834986537

 

Its all going to melt though right?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15824168_609536158854_1362690153_o.jpg?o

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Beautiful start to 2017 here in the West Hills! Just measured and I have picked up 5" so far and looks like I might pick up another inch or so before everything is said and done. Looking forward to see how cold my temps can get now with solid snow cover going into this week!

 

attachicon.gif1dNm9U7 - Imgur.jpg

attachicon.gifQEg9rSF - Imgur.jpg

attachicon.gif5NX9aST - Imgur.jpg

attachicon.gif5BBjsGG - Imgur.jpg

 

 

WOW!  There is absolutely nothing but wet payment down here on the valley floor.  Congrats!  Looks awesome.

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