Jump to content

East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017


Phil

Recommended Posts

Here's to a new year. Hopefully, one with fewer celebrity deaths and more exciting weather than 2016. Would be hard to do worse in either category.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Parallel GFS dumps 20" on us. Haha, if only..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/02BC7DBF-EB82-4850-8EE5-4346212BF14F_zpsu9ojkceb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My inner pessimist says we can punt until late Feb and then winter is over.

Never punt here until early/mid March. Over the last decade, about 80% of our snow has fallen in February/March. That's very telling IMO.

 

February has always been our most prolific snow month, but that's especially been the case in recent decades, with March now joining the party over the last decade in particular.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS depicts a light snow event, followed by two legitimate severe weather events with nice postfrontal pressure surges.

 

Almost reminds me of the good 'ole days, before the post-2010 regime took over. Winter storms intermixed with frontal events.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm betting on suppression depression, but am rooting for amplification.

Reading this as a lay person, it sounds very much as a psychiatrist speaking.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Periodic shivering has commenced here.

 

Currently 31 feels like 18, heading for 24.

 

Wind at 19mph.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2½ inches of snow. Looking at the long range tells me that unless the trough in Alaska is over modeled, I might as well get hyped up for the spring storm season.

A stronger Pacific jet would be beneficial here. Just need to get a storm to track south of us, and all else will fall into line. That can be a challenge without a NW Atlantic ridge, however, so whether or not we obtain the right storm track remains to be seen.

 

These waves that've cut west of the mountains have been warm-sectoring us for the most part.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like it wants to snow out there, but the NW winds argue against it. Temps never got out of the mid/upper 20s this afternoon, yet most of the snow already on the ground has sublimated under the dry downsloping flow.

 

Should bottom out in the low teens or single digits this weekend, so about 10-15 degrees below average. Meh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23*  wind chill 9* this afternoon

 

Light snow,...yes snow - perhaps a half inch.

 

Low tonight 18*  calm clearing

 

Really nice to see some winter weather here.  Shame it missed Christmas.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Blizzard warnings up in Norfolk VA. They're gonna get a foot of snow and possibly hurricane force gusts near the coast.

 

Sucks to get missed to the south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's one heck of a southerly LLJ next week. I bet gusts in some of the ridgetop communities surpass 100mph. Doesn't look as crazy as the December 2010 wind event though..even the lower elevations surpassed 70mph with that one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guidance is bumping NW last minute with the southern storm tonight. Now a solid 1-3" consensus around here..can we pull off a miracle like NYC did with last winter's blizzard? Or at least manage 3-4" or so?

 

Another 30 miles and we're looking at 3-6". Fred might be in a better position (latitude wise) to take advantage of the poleward shooting jet streak, though I'm not sure where he is longitudinally.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, regarding this southerly snow you're talking about this winter, is that Deep South or can Texans get in the act ?

 

I thought earlier this fall Texas would see a dry warmish winter, now it's low 20's and light snow on the ground. What was so odd today was that it snowed at 23*. Usually we never Snow below 30*. Interesting afternoon. Blew snow pretty heavy for awhile. Beautiful.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's puking snow here. Picked up ~1" in 40 minutes:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/55AB5FA9-11DE-4480-9900-04D92C9C2610_zpsl251jorp.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Finished with about 1.7". Wind has already blown all the snow off the roofs and trees, so that kinda sucks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Va. Beach......! Go Figure.

 

Our snow yesterday was actually a rare lake effect snow.

Considering it was in the low 20's and that just isn't snow temps for us.

I live by Benbrook Lake in the southern part of the map. The snow moved SW and we got about a half inch over a period of about 3 hrs.

 

http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/video/Lake-Effect-Snow-GJ-010517_Dallas-Fort-Worth-409889775.html

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And our furnace just went down..again. Why oh why does this happen at the worst possible time?

 

Was hoping it was just the thermostat, but it worked on the upstairs panel so its the d**n furnace. F**k.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got the furnace working. Apparently we have mice and they nibbled away at the C-wire power-stealing conduit to the thermostat. Soldering irons ftw.

 

Wind is blowing out there too, sounds like a dull roar through the trees. Should make it into the low teens or single digits tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Low was 12.6 degrees here last night, despite the persistent wind. High today was a nippy 20.8 degrees.

 

If we can decouple tonight, I bet we easily drop into the single digits, especially with some snow still on the ground. Whether or not we actually decouple is the question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hit 10 degrees by 2AM, then a stratus deck moved in and ruined everything. Figures.

 

Might fail to drop below zero for two consecutive winters, barring a strong mid-February blast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like what I'm seeing in the extended range, big pattern change starting the last week of January. Winter is far from over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As the monster front barrels over the US this weekend, Texas should see a day of nonstop rain on Sunday.

 

Cowboy/Packer game Sunday ......go Packers. ( I know, I'm a traitor)

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's 70.2 degrees here with a howling south wind, and still rising as of 215pm. Gusts surpassing 40mph.

 

Tomorrow night it'll be snowing and sleeting. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's 70.2 degrees here with a howling south wind, and still rising as of 215pm. Gusts surpassing 40mph.

Tomorrow night it'll be snowing and sleeting. :lol:

the sun came out today and bam Temps went way up I got to 71 on my weather station today.just a few days ago we were barely in the 20s and tommore night and saterday we have snow sleet and freezing rain.winter-spring -winter in one week lol.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

the sun came out today and bam Temps went way up I got to 71 on my weather station today.just a few days ago we were barely in the 20s and tommore night and saterday we have snow sleet and freezing rain.winter-spring -winter in one week lol.

New Euro weeklies look absolutely epic for February. That, coupled with the fraying low frequency tropical convective state and upcoming PV/stratosphere perturbations, I'd argue that our winter is just beginning (snowfall wise).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's 70.2 degrees here with a howling south wind, and still rising as of 215pm. Gusts surpassing 40mph.

Tomorrow night it'll be snowing and sleeting. :lol:

I hear ya. We hit 68 and windy. Front came through and at 5:30 it's 59 headed for 40 and scattered showers tomorrow.

Rain through Monday.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hear ya. We hit 68 and windy. Front came through and at 5:30 it's 59 headed for 40 and scattered showers tomorrow.

Rain through Monday.

Gotta love -ENSO winters.

 

Work week started with single digit temps here, hits the low 70s today, then 36hrs later it'll be snowing. Fun stuff.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The house was getting pretty warm this afternoon and I kicked it over on a/c just to bring the temp down and bingo, the compressor died. Luckily it's winter, but a neighbor reminded me tomorrow was Friday 13th. I said that's lucky, the unit is under full warranty !

 

Getting chilly out. Quite nice.

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trying not to jinx it, but I'm feeling a major nor'easter/winter storm sometime in late January and/or February. I like where the pattern and forcings appear to be headed, and could envision something fairly significant taking place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cold front has arrived here. Light NW breezes have replaced the strong southerly winds, and the cloud deck has lowered substantially.

 

No real forcing or pressure surge along the front, so we should avoid the loud, gusty winds. More like a "bleeding" of cold air into the region behind the front, as opposed to a more typical blast front.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Over all a weak event today nothing to write home about it was never expected to be a big event but feel many were to aggressive with the drop in temperature doing this light event. was skeptical of the ice threat in 95 in the forecasts yesterday a warm few days and a weak cold source these events always tend to be marginal at best and best for North and west of 95.the pattern change for end of January and February doesn't surprise me the trend of the last few years have been summers starting July going through September fall October-december through early January and winter coming on a bang late january through April and that looks to hold again this winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...