East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017

[Phil]

Here's to a new year. Hopefully, one with fewer celebrity deaths and more exciting weather than 2016. Would be hard to do worse in either category.

[Phil]

Parallel GFS dumps 20" on us. Haha, if only..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/02BC7DBF-EB82-4850-8EE5-4346212BF14F_zpsu9ojkceb.png

[Phil]

I'm betting on suppression depression, but am rooting for amplification.

[Phil]

My inner pessimist says we can punt until late Feb and then winter is over.

Never punt here until early/mid March. Over the last decade, about 80% of our snow has fallen in February/March. That's very telling IMO.

 

February has always been our most prolific snow month, but that's especially been the case in recent decades, with March now joining the party over the last decade in particular.

[Phil]

00z GFS depicts a light snow event, followed by two legitimate severe weather events with nice postfrontal pressure surges.

 

Almost reminds me of the good 'ole days, before the post-2010 regime took over. Winter storms intermixed with frontal events.

[Andie]

I'm betting on suppression depression, but am rooting for amplification.

Reading this as a lay person, it sounds very much as a psychiatrist speaking.

[Phil]

Might see a few inches of powder tomorrow night. Not much, but it's a start.

[Phil]

Light snow has commenced here.

[Andie]

Periodic shivering has commenced here.

 

Currently 31 feels like 18, heading for 24.

 

Wind at 19mph.

[Phil]

Just under an inch of fluff here. Now sunny and breezy with some blowing snow.

[Phil]

[Phil]

2½ inches of snow. Looking at the long range tells me that unless the trough in Alaska is over modeled, I might as well get hyped up for the spring storm season.

A stronger Pacific jet would be beneficial here. Just need to get a storm to track south of us, and all else will fall into line. That can be a challenge without a NW Atlantic ridge, however, so whether or not we obtain the right storm track remains to be seen.

 

These waves that've cut west of the mountains have been warm-sectoring us for the most part.

[Phil]

Looks like it wants to snow out there, but the NW winds argue against it. Temps never got out of the mid/upper 20s this afternoon, yet most of the snow already on the ground has sublimated under the dry downsloping flow.

 

Should bottom out in the low teens or single digits this weekend, so about 10-15 degrees below average. Meh.

[Andie]

23*  wind chill 9* this afternoon

 

Light snow,...yes snow - perhaps a half inch.

 

Low tonight 18*  calm clearing

 

Really nice to see some winter weather here.  Shame it missed Christmas.

[Phil]

Blizzard warnings up in Norfolk VA. They're gonna get a foot of snow and possibly hurricane force gusts near the coast.

 

Sucks to get missed to the south.

[weatherfan2012]

Pretty commercial that places in the south are going to have more snow then some sections of the northeast so far this winter.

[Phil]

That's one heck of a southerly LLJ next week. I bet gusts in some of the ridgetop communities surpass 100mph. Doesn't look as crazy as the December 2010 wind event though..even the lower elevations surpassed 70mph with that one.

[Phil]

Guidance is bumping NW last minute with the southern storm tonight. Now a solid 1-3" consensus around here..can we pull off a miracle like NYC did with last winter's blizzard? Or at least manage 3-4" or so?

 

Another 30 miles and we're looking at 3-6". Fred might be in a better position (latitude wise) to take advantage of the poleward shooting jet streak, though I'm not sure where he is longitudinally.

[Phil]

WWA for 1-3" just issued here. I'll be fully content with 4".

[Andie]

So, regarding this southerly snow you're talking about this winter, is that Deep South or can Texans get in the act ?

 

I thought earlier this fall Texas would see a dry warmish winter, now it's low 20's and light snow on the ground. What was so odd today was that it snowed at 23*. Usually we never Snow below 30*. Interesting afternoon. Blew snow pretty heavy for awhile. Beautiful.

[Phil]

It's puking snow here. Picked up ~1" in 40 minutes:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/55AB5FA9-11DE-4480-9900-04D92C9C2610_zpsl251jorp.jpg

[Phil]

Finished with about 1.7". Wind has already blown all the snow off the roofs and trees, so that kinda sucks.

[Andie]

Va. Beach......! Go Figure.

 

Our snow yesterday was actually a rare lake effect snow.

Considering it was in the low 20's and that just isn't snow temps for us.

I live by Benbrook Lake in the southern part of the map. The snow moved SW and we got about a half inch over a period of about 3 hrs.

 

http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/video/Lake-Effect-Snow-GJ-010517_Dallas-Fort-Worth-409889775.html

[Phil]

And our furnace just went down..again. Why oh why does this happen at the worst possible time?

 

Was hoping it was just the thermostat, but it worked on the upstairs panel so its the d**n furnace. F**k.

[Phil]

Got the furnace working. Apparently we have mice and they nibbled away at the C-wire power-stealing conduit to the thermostat. Soldering irons ftw.

 

Wind is blowing out there too, sounds like a dull roar through the trees. Should make it into the low teens or single digits tonight.

[Phil]

Low was 12.6 degrees here last night, despite the persistent wind. High today was a nippy 20.8 degrees.

 

If we can decouple tonight, I bet we easily drop into the single digits, especially with some snow still on the ground. Whether or not we actually decouple is the question.

[Phil]

A chilly 15 degrees as of 1130pm. Single digits possible tonight.

[Phil]

Hit 10 degrees by 2AM, then a stratus deck moved in and ruined everything. Figures.

 

Might fail to drop below zero for two consecutive winters, barring a strong mid-February blast.

[Phil]

I like what I'm seeing in the extended range, big pattern change starting the last week of January. Winter is far from over.

[Andie]

As the monster front barrels over the US this weekend, Texas should see a day of nonstop rain on Sunday.

 

Cowboy/Packer game Sunday ......go Packers. ( I know, I'm a traitor)

[Phil]

It's 70.2 degrees here with a howling south wind, and still rising as of 215pm. Gusts surpassing 40mph.

 

Tomorrow night it'll be snowing and sleeting.

[weatherfan2012]

It's 70.2 degrees here with a howling south wind, and still rising as of 215pm. Gusts surpassing 40mph.

Tomorrow night it'll be snowing and sleeting.

the sun came out today and bam Temps went way up I got to 71 on my weather station today.just a few days ago we were barely in the 20s and tommore night and saterday we have snow sleet and freezing rain.winter-spring -winter in one week lol.

[Phil]

the sun came out today and bam Temps went way up I got to 71 on my weather station today.just a few days ago we were barely in the 20s and tommore night and saterday we have snow sleet and freezing rain.winter-spring -winter in one week lol.

New Euro weeklies look absolutely epic for February. That, coupled with the fraying low frequency tropical convective state and upcoming PV/stratosphere perturbations, I'd argue that our winter is just beginning (snowfall wise).

[Andie]

It's 70.2 degrees here with a howling south wind, and still rising as of 215pm. Gusts surpassing 40mph.

Tomorrow night it'll be snowing and sleeting.

I hear ya. We hit 68 and windy. Front came through and at 5:30 it's 59 headed for 40 and scattered showers tomorrow.

Rain through Monday.

[Phil]

I hear ya. We hit 68 and windy. Front came through and at 5:30 it's 59 headed for 40 and scattered showers tomorrow.

Rain through Monday.

Gotta love -ENSO winters.

 

Work week started with single digit temps here, hits the low 70s today, then 36hrs later it'll be snowing. Fun stuff.

[Andie]

The house was getting pretty warm this afternoon and I kicked it over on a/c just to bring the temp down and bingo, the compressor died. Luckily it's winter, but a neighbor reminded me tomorrow was Friday 13th. I said that's lucky, the unit is under full warranty !

 

Getting chilly out. Quite nice.

[Phil]

Trying not to jinx it, but I'm feeling a major nor'easter/winter storm sometime in late January and/or February. I like where the pattern and forcings appear to be headed, and could envision something fairly significant taking place.

[Phil]

Cold front has arrived here. Light NW breezes have replaced the strong southerly winds, and the cloud deck has lowered substantially.

 

No real forcing or pressure surge along the front, so we should avoid the loud, gusty winds. More like a "bleeding" of cold air into the region behind the front, as opposed to a more typical blast front.

[Phil]

Snowing here at 41.5 degrees. Some graupel, rain, and sleet mixing in.

[weatherfan2012]

Over all a weak event today nothing to write home about it was never expected to be a big event but feel many were to aggressive with the drop in temperature doing this light event. was skeptical of the ice threat in 95 in the forecasts yesterday a warm few days and a weak cold source these events always tend to be marginal at best and best for North and west of 95.the pattern change for end of January and February doesn't surprise me the trend of the last few years have been summers starting July going through September fall October-december through early January and winter coming on a bang late january through April and that looks to hold again this winter.

[Andie]

Follow up, compressor ok, but hard start component a goner, no heat or a/c. Chilly here to say the least. Then learned I had a serious gas leak from some flex hose in the attic. My gas is red tagged and I have no hot water now. It's like camping out. The bill to fix the flex hose is enough to give my depression a depression.

 

So, today is chilly, 49*, fog all day. Expecting 60's and thunderstorms for tomorrow.

I'm seriously bummed out. We could have a weather apocalypse and it wouldn't bother me.

[Andie]

Over all a weak event today nothing to write home about it was never expected to be a big event but feel many were to aggressive with the drop in temperature doing this light event. was skeptical of the ice threat in 95 in the forecasts yesterday a warm few days and a weak cold source these events always tend to be marginal at best and best for North and west of 95.the pattern change for end of January and February doesn't surprise me the trend of the last few years have been summers starting July going through September fall October-december through early January and winter coming on a bang late january through April and that looks to hold again this winter.

D**n! Now that's what I call a historic run on sentence.

[Phil]

I'm in Calgary the week of the 6th. I hope that my schedule somehow works.

An Archambault event looks to occur in February, so that's something to keep in mind. Our most prolific blizzards tend to occur during Archambault events, including the blizzard last winter and the great blizzards of 2010.

 

Archambault events are anomalous (and rapid) shifts in the underlying Pacific/Atlantic boundary state(s). The term comes from the Heather Archambault paper, which investigates the correlation between NE US cold precip events and large scale regime change.

 

It's a fantastic read: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3362.1

[weatherfan2012]

D**n! Now that's what I call a historic run on sentence.

I never seen a pattern that's been so consistent as the one we been in the last few years you could throw a dart and just predict hot hazy humied July from September to a none ending fall until january or febuary with snow cold right into April followed by a crappy none showing of spring until late may or june it interesting how presistant the pattern of this progression has been.

[Phil]

I never seen a pattern that's been so consistent as the one we been in the last few years you could throw a dart and just predict hot hazy humied July from September to a none ending fall until january or febuary with snow cold right into April followed by a crappy none showing of spring until late may or june it interesting how presistant the pattern of this progression has been.

This. While July/August have always been horrible, the trend with September is disturbing to say the least. Thankfully, June has sort of gone the other way, and recent summers haven't been as atrociously awful as the 2010/2011/2012 trifecta of dewpoint delirium.

 

The loss of November and December as winter months has also annoyed me, as has the extension of winter into March/April during said years. Would very much prefer a return to more classic winter seasons.

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah the summers of 2010 2011 and 2012 were all about as bad as you can get in a temp and dewpoint combernation around here pure nastyness.at least in 2012 instance we had the mighty super derecho end of june those still a night mare as far as Temps and dew points go that summer.

[Phil]

Yeah the summers of 2010 2011 and 2012 were all about as bad as you can get in a temp and dewpoint combernation around here pure nastyness.at least in 2012 instance we had the mighty super derecho end ofbjune those still a night mare as far as Temps and dew points go that summer.

A legitimately terrifying storm, literally changed the landscape in ways that are still evident today. I have no idea how any of our trees survived that wind...lasted over 30 minutes and some areas gusted over 100mph.

 

Then there was another massive storm on September 8th that year, winds just as strong but less damage since the weaker trees were mostly taken out.

[Phil]

That said, the late July/early August 2010 outbreaks take the crown around here. As of now, that's the only time I can recall legitimately fearing for my safety in a thunderstorm, even inside my house.

 

I'll never forget the power going out, five minutes before the first gust of wind. I opened the back door, and remember hearing what sounded like low flying jets in the distance (DCA air traffic flies low/overhead all the time, so that's what I figured). The roar slowly got louder over the next minute or so...much louder than a jet or chopper. So, I looked towards the storm, at which point I realized it was the sound of the wind roaring through the woodland trees, still easily over 1/2 mile away..debris soaring high up in the air. So I sprinted back to the door, and right as I got there, the wall of wind hit like a ton of bricks. Large trees literally started exploding, almost as if they'd been laced with dynamite or something. I was legitimately terrified, screaming and cussing my a** off, yet almost unable to hear myself over the roar of the wind. Still get chills when I think about that storm.

[Phil]

This was the second thunderstorm in that sequence of systems that week. This is still nothing compared to how intense it was around here and to the N/NE, but still an impressive video.

 

Microburst moves in at ~ 1:20 into the video.

 

[Phil]

Another video of that event: