Phil Posted January 2, 2017 Report Share Posted January 2, 2017 Here's to a new year. Hopefully, one with fewer celebrity deaths and more exciting weather than 2016. Would be hard to do worse in either category. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2017 Parallel GFS dumps 20" on us. Haha, if only.. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/02BC7DBF-EB82-4850-8EE5-4346212BF14F_zpsu9ojkceb.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm betting on suppression depression, but am rooting for amplification. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2017 My inner pessimist says we can punt until late Feb and then winter is over.Never punt here until early/mid March. Over the last decade, about 80% of our snow has fallen in February/March. That's very telling IMO. February has always been our most prolific snow month, but that's especially been the case in recent decades, with March now joining the party over the last decade in particular. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2017 00z GFS depicts a light snow event, followed by two legitimate severe weather events with nice postfrontal pressure surges. Almost reminds me of the good 'ole days, before the post-2010 regime took over. Winter storms intermixed with frontal events. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 4, 2017 Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm betting on suppression depression, but am rooting for amplification.Reading this as a lay person, it sounds very much as a psychiatrist speaking. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Might see a few inches of powder tomorrow night. Not much, but it's a start. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Light snow has commenced here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Periodic shivering has commenced here. Currently 31 feels like 18, heading for 24. Wind at 19mph. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just under an inch of fluff here. Now sunny and breezy with some blowing snow. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 2½ inches of snow. Looking at the long range tells me that unless the trough in Alaska is over modeled, I might as well get hyped up for the spring storm season.A stronger Pacific jet would be beneficial here. Just need to get a storm to track south of us, and all else will fall into line. That can be a challenge without a NW Atlantic ridge, however, so whether or not we obtain the right storm track remains to be seen. These waves that've cut west of the mountains have been warm-sectoring us for the most part. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like it wants to snow out there, but the NW winds argue against it. Temps never got out of the mid/upper 20s this afternoon, yet most of the snow already on the ground has sublimated under the dry downsloping flow. Should bottom out in the low teens or single digits this weekend, so about 10-15 degrees below average. Meh. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 23* wind chill 9* this afternoon Light snow,...yes snow - perhaps a half inch. Low tonight 18* calm clearing Really nice to see some winter weather here. Shame it missed Christmas. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Blizzard warnings up in Norfolk VA. They're gonna get a foot of snow and possibly hurricane force gusts near the coast. Sucks to get missed to the south. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pretty commercial that places in the south are going to have more snow then some sections of the northeast so far this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 That's one heck of a southerly LLJ next week. I bet gusts in some of the ridgetop communities surpass 100mph. Doesn't look as crazy as the December 2010 wind event though..even the lower elevations surpassed 70mph with that one. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 Guidance is bumping NW last minute with the southern storm tonight. Now a solid 1-3" consensus around here..can we pull off a miracle like NYC did with last winter's blizzard? Or at least manage 3-4" or so? Another 30 miles and we're looking at 3-6". Fred might be in a better position (latitude wise) to take advantage of the poleward shooting jet streak, though I'm not sure where he is longitudinally. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 WWA for 1-3" just issued here. I'll be fully content with 4". Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 7, 2017 Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 So, regarding this southerly snow you're talking about this winter, is that Deep South or can Texans get in the act ? I thought earlier this fall Texas would see a dry warmish winter, now it's low 20's and light snow on the ground. What was so odd today was that it snowed at 23*. Usually we never Snow below 30*. Interesting afternoon. Blew snow pretty heavy for awhile. Beautiful. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 It's puking snow here. Picked up ~1" in 40 minutes: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/55AB5FA9-11DE-4480-9900-04D92C9C2610_zpsl251jorp.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 Finished with about 1.7". Wind has already blown all the snow off the roofs and trees, so that kinda sucks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 8, 2017 Report Share Posted January 8, 2017 Va. Beach......! Go Figure. Our snow yesterday was actually a rare lake effect snow. Considering it was in the low 20's and that just isn't snow temps for us. I live by Benbrook Lake in the southern part of the map. The snow moved SW and we got about a half inch over a period of about 3 hrs. http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/video/Lake-Effect-Snow-GJ-010517_Dallas-Fort-Worth-409889775.html 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2017 And our furnace just went down..again. Why oh why does this happen at the worst possible time? Was hoping it was just the thermostat, but it worked on the upstairs panel so its the d**n furnace. F**k. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2017 Got the furnace working. Apparently we have mice and they nibbled away at the C-wire power-stealing conduit to the thermostat. Soldering irons ftw. Wind is blowing out there too, sounds like a dull roar through the trees. Should make it into the low teens or single digits tonight. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2017 Low was 12.6 degrees here last night, despite the persistent wind. High today was a nippy 20.8 degrees. If we can decouple tonight, I bet we easily drop into the single digits, especially with some snow still on the ground. Whether or not we actually decouple is the question. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2017 A chilly 15 degrees as of 1130pm. Single digits possible tonight. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2017 Hit 10 degrees by 2AM, then a stratus deck moved in and ruined everything. Figures. Might fail to drop below zero for two consecutive winters, barring a strong mid-February blast. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 I like what I'm seeing in the extended range, big pattern change starting the last week of January. Winter is far from over. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 As the monster front barrels over the US this weekend, Texas should see a day of nonstop rain on Sunday. Cowboy/Packer game Sunday ......go Packers. ( I know, I'm a traitor) Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 It's 70.2 degrees here with a howling south wind, and still rising as of 215pm. Gusts surpassing 40mph. Tomorrow night it'll be snowing and sleeting. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 It's 70.2 degrees here with a howling south wind, and still rising as of 215pm. Gusts surpassing 40mph.Tomorrow night it'll be snowing and sleeting. the sun came out today and bam Temps went way up I got to 71 on my weather station today.just a few days ago we were barely in the 20s and tommore night and saterday we have snow sleet and freezing rain.winter-spring -winter in one week lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 the sun came out today and bam Temps went way up I got to 71 on my weather station today.just a few days ago we were barely in the 20s and tommore night and saterday we have snow sleet and freezing rain.winter-spring -winter in one week lol.New Euro weeklies look absolutely epic for February. That, coupled with the fraying low frequency tropical convective state and upcoming PV/stratosphere perturbations, I'd argue that our winter is just beginning (snowfall wise). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 It's 70.2 degrees here with a howling south wind, and still rising as of 215pm. Gusts surpassing 40mph.Tomorrow night it'll be snowing and sleeting. I hear ya. We hit 68 and windy. Front came through and at 5:30 it's 59 headed for 40 and scattered showers tomorrow. Rain through Monday. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 I hear ya. We hit 68 and windy. Front came through and at 5:30 it's 59 headed for 40 and scattered showers tomorrow. Rain through Monday.Gotta love -ENSO winters. Work week started with single digit temps here, hits the low 70s today, then 36hrs later it'll be snowing. Fun stuff. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 The house was getting pretty warm this afternoon and I kicked it over on a/c just to bring the temp down and bingo, the compressor died. Luckily it's winter, but a neighbor reminded me tomorrow was Friday 13th. I said that's lucky, the unit is under full warranty ! Getting chilly out. Quite nice. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Trying not to jinx it, but I'm feeling a major nor'easter/winter storm sometime in late January and/or February. I like where the pattern and forcings appear to be headed, and could envision something fairly significant taking place. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Cold front has arrived here. Light NW breezes have replaced the strong southerly winds, and the cloud deck has lowered substantially. No real forcing or pressure surge along the front, so we should avoid the loud, gusty winds. More like a "bleeding" of cold air into the region behind the front, as opposed to a more typical blast front. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 Snowing here at 41.5 degrees. Some graupel, rain, and sleet mixing in. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 Over all a weak event today nothing to write home about it was never expected to be a big event but feel many were to aggressive with the drop in temperature doing this light event. was skeptical of the ice threat in 95 in the forecasts yesterday a warm few days and a weak cold source these events always tend to be marginal at best and best for North and west of 95.the pattern change for end of January and February doesn't surprise me the trend of the last few years have been summers starting July going through September fall October-december through early January and winter coming on a bang late january through April and that looks to hold again this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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