East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017

[weatherfan2012]

Where are you located?

 

I know in Texas, we are really needing a good period of rain.

I'm worried about spring.

I'm in Maryland Anne Arundel county.yeah it been dry here to even rain systems are falling apart in the 95 reagion.

[Andie]

It's going to be interesting to see who gets the rain and who gets the wildfires.

 

We're in a wildfire period and I hope spring will put a stop to that.

[Andie]

A neighbor flew over our burn area yesterday.  He sent these. This is the 2000 acres west of Ft. Worth. The fire came within about a half mile of my house.  Winds were about 30mph with higher gusts. 

 

It took some good firefighting to stop it. No homes or schools were burned.  A few small out buildings was all that was lost.

 

The roads and white areas are gas wells.

 

 

[Phil]

A brief cold shot dropped us down to ~ 20*F early Friday morning, now we’re back up to 62*F under the warm advection.

 

Another front blows through late tonight, with some models indicating light snow chances Monday night/Tuesday with an upper level vortmax. Hoping for at least a dusting.

[Phil]

I'm not sold on a cold US winter this year. I'm thinking a seasonal to warm winter for most of the US this year under a +EPO.

 

Wildcard being any real -NAO/SSW that can occur if the solar wind/geotag forcing is weak enough.

Whoops.

 

Well, it hasn’t exactly been a “frigid” winter, but lol @ the +EPO/torch idea.

[Phil]

Southerly gusts topped out around 40mph yesterday afternoon. Better mixing than forecast.

 

Clouds thickening now as the front creeps towards us.

[Phil]

Decent snow squall moving in. Velocity depicts 40mph winds with it.

 

[Phil]

Brief period of flizzard conditions this morning with the snow squalls, now sunny/windy, gusts ~ 45mph with temperatures hovering just below freezing.

 

There was a period midday where it was sunny but snowing as dry air advected behind the upper level trough..so we got some ice crystal growth within the boundary layer itself.

[Andie]

We're in a lull with temps at High of 70-50 and Lows of 47-30.

 

February can hand us everything from Spring-like weather, to 5" of snow.  You never now.

 

No rain in 10 day forecast.  And we need a good rain.

[weatherfan2012]

Brief period of flizzard conditions this morning with the snow squalls, now sunny/windy, gusts ~ 45mph with temperatures hovering just below freezing.

There was a period midday where it was sunny but snowing as dry air advected behind the upper level trough..so we got some ice crystal growth within the boundary layer itself.

it would be laughable if our biggest snow event of the winter Phil came in March once again.it really would not shock me.If the mjo fails and breaks down instead of a cold Eastern pattern mid February early March I could then see how we have a pattern that sucks coast to coast in a lot of ways that would make this winter even worse then last at least last winter we knew there was little chances.this winter we get a 10 or more day period of cold which nothing to show for with a weak lame Pacific jet.it why I find it Comerica that some think the east is getting rocked I mean yes it was a very cold period but I wouldn't call what we saw awesome by any stretch.

[Phil]

Woke up to 18 degrees and a stiff NW wind yesterday morning. We’re under return flow now, so temps will rise into the 50s tomorrrow before rain breaks out under isentropic lift.

 

Next cold front blasts through tomorrow night on 40mph winds, changing the rain over to snow. Friday looks like another cold advection day w/ downsloping flow. In other words..dry and windy.

 

Watching for a winter storm over the weekend, but it’s a

thread-the-needle scenario that relies 100% on the timing of individual waves. Fickle..

[weatherfan2012]

Woke up to 18 degrees and a stiff NW wind yesterday morning. We’re under return flow now, so temps will rise into the 50s tomorrrow before rain breaks out under isentropic lift.

Next cold front blasts through tomorrow night on 40mph winds, changing the rain over to snow. Friday looks like another cold advection day w/ downsloping flow. In other words..dry and windy.

Watching for a winter storm over the weekend, but it’s a

thread-the-needle scenario that relies 100% on the timing of individual waves. Fickle..

it likey going to be spring until we really get a less challenging forecast from the models quite frankly I'm not sure I by the recent runs of the mjo going into the cod just yet.i have some concerned that the models arnt handeling the mjo correctly giving the strong signal currenly.on another note we are in severe drought conditions this has been one of the dryest winter's I have seen in a regional stand point we are going to need a wet spring or we may face some problems this summer.

[Phil]

Front roared through last night on 40mph winds, dropping temperatures from the low 50s to the upper 20s over a period of 4hrs or so.

 

No diurnal cycle today, as temperatures continued dropping, reaching the low 20s by early afternoon despite full sunshine. Winds are starting to come down now, so with some radiational cooling we might have a shot at lower teens tomorrow morning.

 

Watching for a winter storm this weekend, too. Could be icy with sufficient CAD.

[Phil]

Another chilly morning today..11.8*F at sunrise. We’re heading above freezing this afternoon on southerly return flow, but there’s not much warm air to draw from.

 

Still watching for icy conditions Sunday.

[weatherfan2012]

I keep hoping for something from a whole lot of nothing.

yeah this has been one of the most boring winter patterns I have seen dispite the cold periold.we haven't even seen many ice events which is normally a big La nina occurrence in winter around here hack even rain systems have been quite lame over all the results of a weak sorry excuse of a Pacific jet progressive pattern.

[Phil]

Some light freezing rain this morning, but nothing too disruptive since we’re right near freezing (31.6*F).

[weatherfan2012]

Some light freezing rain this morning, but nothing too disruptive since we’re right near freezing (31.6*F).

I'm still pretty certain that our biggest snow event this winter comes in March it would fit things pretty well with March as of late lol.you get the winter over posts then March comes and laughs at everyone with it biggest snow fall of the season would be funny if it did play out like that.

[Phil]

I’m feeling an early March event too. Would fit with the tropical forcing/SSW too.

 

Ice starting to glaze the trees, still 31.6*F.

[Phil]

It’s getting pretty icy out there. Tree branches starting to weigh down a little.

[Phil]

I keep hoping for something from a whole lot of nothing.

Deep stuff.

[Phil]

All rain outside of Philly. Had an hour of snow, an hour of sleet, and then rain. Glazing was briefly limited to branches before melting off.

Wow, your area must suck for cold air damming. I’m at 32*F on the nose, with ~ 0.1” of ice accretion on most surfaces. No snow, though.

 

Hopefully it’ll warm above freezing within the next hour.

[Phil]

Decent pressure surge this morning. Gusty winds sublimated most of the remaining ice as dry air returned.

 

In other news, we received 1.1” of liquid yesterday. Very lucky we avoided a severe ice storm..a few degrees colder and 0.1” of ice accretion could have easily been closer to 1”, which would have been problematic. In the end, it was badly needed rainfall, given how dry it’s been.

[weatherfan2012]

Decent pressure surge this morning. Gusty winds sublimated most of the remaining ice as dry air returned.

In other news, we received 1.1” of liquid yesterday. Very lucky we avoided a severe ice storm..a few degrees colder and 0.1” of ice accretion could have easily been closer to 1”, which would have been problematic. In the end, it was badly needed rainfall, given how dry it’s been.

yeah we really needed the rain fall for sure been one of the dryest winter period s I can remember.

[Andie]

I keep hoping for something from a whole lot of nothing.

Sounds like my winter.

[Phil]

Looks like an icy morning commute upcoming. Point and click says low of 32*F tonight, but I’m already at 30.5*F.

 

Expecting maybe 0.1” of ice accretion following a light coating of snow/sleet.

[Andie]

I can't believe this. I'm actually getting 33* "freezing" rain.

 

:/

[weatherfan2012]

Looks like an icy morning commute upcoming. Point and click says low of 32*F tonight, but I’m already at 30.5*F.

Expecting maybe 0.1” of ice accretion following a light coating of snow/sleet.

same here temperature reading says 30

[Phil]

same here temperature reading says 30

Down to 28.6*F now. We’re radiating a bit, so maybe we spike up a bit when clouds thicken, but these CAD wedges tend to overperform so who knows.

[weatherfan2012]

I'm not surprised that February has sucked so far in fact this is quite common in la ninas Februarys la ninas tend to be mostly blahhh those it is interesting that back in the 16-17 hundreds the El ninos were the ones that sucked but the ninas were the ones that brought the goods interesting stuff.

[weatherfan2012]

We can pretty much I think put February into the typical La niña stinker as far as snow and cold is concerned February 2018 pretty much tottel crap unless you like rain which we do need. March those I still have concern for a winter sneak up this is one of these classic look type winter cases where everyone declares winter dead then it comes in for the last moment sneak up attack and we suddenly find our selfs with our biggest snow event of the entire winter season in dare I say it lol March.regardless what happens I beleave this ssw and I agree the timing of this likely won't save what has been another over all pathica excuse of a winter except for the cold period December into first part of january better then the last few in a cold since but not something we will remember years from now certainly but the ssw is still very important for the longer term we really need a pattern shake up and it's likely this ssw is a indeacation that the pattern mean we been in since 2013 is about to terminate but as Phil and others have said to what is another guessing game at the moment very unclear but will be interesting to see how this shakes up in a global system since over the next few years anything that can sift this seem endless winter positive nao regem is at least a start.amazeing to me that the last time we seen a negative nam nao winter was the sort 2008-2011 period.

[Phil]

Poured rain all yesterday and last night. Some areas already have 3”+. Badly needed.

[weatherfan2012]

Poured rain all yesterday and last night. Some areas already have 3”+. Badly needed.

so true we need this rain bad if it's not going to snow mines well get heavy rains and severe weather season started early those I still have a uneased feeling about a last moment winter sneak up in March I just have seen it played out like that to many times in these type of winters.

[Phil]

My temp is approaching 70*F, without even a hint of sunshine all day. This is pure advection.

[Phil]

DCA has recorded 3.75” of rainfall this month so far.

 

That’s already more than November, December, and January *combined*. Goes to show how dry winter can be around these parts.

 

Then in April/May, rainfall records skyrocket way up into the double digits, over a period of a few weeks, as the swamp climate wakes up again. I think I recorded something like 22” of rain last year from May-July alone.

[Phil]

Aaaand my anemometer compass just went dead. Just reads north now.

 

Fuckmonkeys.

[Phil]

Nice day today. Following a “midnight high” of 65*F with a dewpoint of 62*F, temps dropped into the 40s behind the front under north winds and bright sunshine. Very comfortable outside.

 

We should drop into the low 20’s tonight, but we’ll rebound into the 70s by midweek. Definitely a classic La Niña February..very mild overall with some ups/downs.

 

FWIW, the temporary fix for the anemometer compass and reed switch is holding so far. That said, I’m configuring an ultrasonic replacement anemometer for the default mechanical anemometer provided by Davis instruments. This is the second time in two years I've had wear/tear issues with Davis’ anemometer and I’m not taking that route again.

[weatherfan2012]

Nice day today. Following a “midnight high” of 65*F with a dewpoint of 62*F, temps dropped into the 40s behind the front under north winds and bright sunshine. Very comfortable outside.

We should drop into the low 20’s tonight, but we’ll rebound into the 70s by midweek. Definitely a classic La Niña February..very mild overall with some ups/downs.

FWIW, the temporary fix for the anemometer compass and reed switch is holding so far. That said, I’m configuring an ultrasonic replacement anemometer for the default mechanical anemometer provided by Davis instruments. This is the second time in two years I've had wear/tear issues with Davis’ anemometer and I’m not taking that route again.

a lot of debate as to how late February March turn out have not seen this much disagreement amongst Mets in a long time.Dt and Steve have been in quite a heated debate with Anthony Masiello on the March pattern.as he is somewhat excited about a last minute snow threat which I happen to agree with as I to have a feeling that we will see a last moment sneak up with winter in March just has one of those winter year looks to it where we see a late season snow event of some sort.

[Phil]

[weatherfan2012]

[Phil]

Holy crap. Dulles is 75*F, which is easily a new record high for the date.

 

I’m at 70.5*F. Beautiful outside!