Jump to content

East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017


Phil

Recommended Posts

A coworker and I removed a sickly tulip poplar from our property today, but before doing so we measured it at 170ft. We double checked just to be sure, and it's not even the biggest tree on the property. It's amazing to me how huge these guys get.

 

I know most people claim they have weak wood, but in all my years here, they seem to weather storms the best of all other tree species. Their storm survival stategy seems to be to shed larger peripheral limbs earlier on, leaving the trunk and central structure intact. I have never seen a tulip poplar uprooted in a storm, though over time the biggest trees have been degrading.

 

Meanwhile, I'd say 80% of the tree issues we handle are related to softwoods like White Pine, Douglas Fir, and various Spruces as well as Oaks. The softwoods are always snapping at the base or somewhere halfway up the tree, while Oaks seem to uproot when they get big.

That's a huge tree. We don't have many of the poplar species around here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had a brief period of half dollar flakes earlier. Now moderate snow w/ tiny flakes, about 1/2" so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Finished with under an inch of wet snow. Clinging to all the trees so it looks cool.

 

Watching for potential midday snow squalls today, as well as the potential for a few bigger storms this weekend and beyond.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Decent snow squall blew through here, dropping 1/4" in 5mins.

 

Winds gusting to around 30mph.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

High of 78*. ........sigh.......

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

80*

 

 

:/

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yet another very warm sunny day. I mean where the heck is winter ?? Our average high in early February should be high 50's.

 

76-78*

 

Small front comes through tonight. High tomorrow of 50*, cloudy. Low near 40*. Slight chance of a shower on Saturday, then it leaps back in to the high 70's. Enough already.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This has been one of our worst winters on record thus far. January officially featured the highest number of above-freezing lows on record of any year back to the 1800s. Also the 5th least snowy winter on record so far.

 

I'm still holding out hope we can score in mid/late February or March. The -ENSO winters often throw late season surprises at us, including recent ones like 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, and 1999/00.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you met 98-99 where we got a couple late season events 99-00 happen in a two week span in mid to late january.

Yes, thank you. Not sure how I fooked that up. The blizzard of 2000 is my first "epic" childhood snow memory. My first real winter memory is (I think) the January 1999 ice storm.

 

I was seven years old for the blizzard of 2000, and I remember standing out on our driveway in a trance, watching clouds of snow blowing off all the yards and roofs, and standing in the "snow tornado" that forms next to our porch during NE winds. I'll never forget the disorienting feeling I got with the near zero visibility.

 

Speaking of visibility, the one reason I rank last year's blizzard behind the snowmageddon storms is due to the lack of strong winds. We had a few gusts to 45mph midday, which is actually weaker than the *sustained* winds during snowmageddon2, and weaker than the 55+mph gusts during snowmageddon one.

 

We gusted to 68mph in snowmageddon part 2. Easily my favorite storm of all time. So crazy how it puked snow from 8pm to 1AM before flipping to freezing drizzle with nothing showing on the radar..everyone calling bust, etc. Then once the ULL came over the mountains, that squall line of snow-thunderstorms developed over Winchester VA and roared in here with severe thunderstorm conditions, and then everything filled in right behind it so we got to experience 12hrs of something reminiscent of a true Midwest style blizzard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had some strong downslope gusts last night as the dry front moved through. Moved some furniture around on the deck.

 

You know you're having a pathetic winter when a morning low of 22F in early February (only 3F below average) feels chilly. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had some strong downslope gusts last night as the dry front moved through. Moved some furniture around on the deck.

You know you're having a pathetic winter when a morning low of 22F in early February (only 3F below average) feels chilly. :lol:

this winter has been worse than last winter at least last winter we did have some note worthy events in between the record warm there is nothing pretty much of anything to note worthy this winter funny that we were saying last winter how it couldn't get worse and it got worse this winter lol.seriously those you got to think things will be balanceing them selfs out eather next winter or the following one and with the solar minimum and solar winds weaking you have to like the chances of some kick but winters coming back in the next few years.and of course what cycles 25 and 26 do in the 2020s and 2030s and beowed perhaps this is Phil really the calm before the storm.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

this winter has been worse than last winter at least last winter we did have some note worthy events in between the record warm there is nothing pretty much of anything to note worthy this winter funny that we were saying last winter how it couldn't get worse and it got worse this winter lol.seriously those you got to think things will be balanceing them selfs out eather next winter or the following one and with the solar minimum and solar winds weaking you have to like the chances of some kick but winters coming back in the next few years.and of course what cycles 25 and 26 do in the 2020s and 2030s and beowed perhaps this is Phil really the calm before the storm.

I don't want to tempt Mother Nature, but this has to be complete rock bottom. I've never seen things worse than they are now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Watch February 15-25. Tropical forcing becomes quite favorable, and the stratosphere/NAM is perturbed.

 

I have a hunch that this time it's going to work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

80* and sunny. I mean....c'mon!

 

82* Tomorrow.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z RGEM!!!!

 

Goes from 996mb to 972mb in 12hrs. Fred gets absolutely destroyed..verbatim parts of New England would likely pick up a quick 2 feet of paste..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 16th, right?

 

I haven't been on the up and up with models as work has been pretty busy.

Lol no, this Thursday (the 9th).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boom. Please oh please let this verify.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5881B187-9E6C-4CD0-9505-EC7D6ACA4D22_zpsk3glk7kz.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lame. I fly back on Friday.

Oh noes.

 

Well there's another window of blizzard potential around the 20th, and it's not a given this this will work out. Complex evolution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thing is, it's in the 70s today so we'll have to cool stuff off before we can accumulate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I might be too far south for the main show tonight, but a few vicious snow squalls look possible for tomorrow afternoon.

 

Fred is gonna get smacked, though. Could be a quick 6"/2hrs type deal up there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's really going to come down. Grab some video.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's really going to come down. Grab some video.

High was 73 degrees today, so we'll see. A wall of dark clouds moving in from the west now, though, winds shifting from the W to the NE ahead of the low.

 

Fred's area is now forecasted at 8-12". I'm probably stuck with "white rain" here until after sunrise, then maybe a few convective snow squalls tomorrow afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This sure has been a whacky winter 70s the past two days to snow tommore then back to warm.I still think the mid to late febuary period offers the best opportunity for this winter.as I stated earlier it makes you wonder if this is the calm before the storm the over all warm background the last few years.it going to make it I think the next few solar cycles even more interesting to follow to see if we do end up having a very sharp strong cooling trend and interesting to both sides of the thoreys and debate at hand

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh dear, might have to ban your self for that language outside of the OT ! :lol:

 

I feel for ya Fred. Right now I'd I'd sacrifice a newt on the altar of weather for freakin' rain !

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This sure has been a whacky winter 70s the past two days to snow tommore then back to warm.I still think the mid to late febuary period offers the best opportunity for this winter.as I stated earlier it makes you wonder if this is the calm before the storm the over all warm background the last few years.it going to make it I think the next few solar cycles even more interesting to follow to see if we do end up having a very sharp strong cooling trend and interesting to both sides of the thoreys and debate at hand

Since records began, every solar minimum has produced at least one "epic" winter in our region. These tend to occur near/during the period with weakest solar winds.

 

As we head into solar minimum over the next few years, we'll likely score a few big winters..either 2018/19 or 2019/20 should be legitimate. Next winter will depend on the ENSO state but could be nice if we go +ENSO and flip the QBO sooner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since records began, every solar minimum has produced at least one "epic" winter in our region. These tend to occur near/during the period with weakest solar winds.

 

As we head into solar minimum over the next few years, we'll likely score a few big winters..either 2018/19 or 2019/20 should be legitimate. Next winter will depend on the ENSO state but could be nice if we go +ENSO and flip the QBO sooner.

the more you look at this minimum cycle upcoming do you beleave it's behaving as a maunder or a dalton type of minimum.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the more you look at this minimum cycle upcoming do you beleave it's behaving as a maunder or a dalton type of minimum.

I'm not sure yet. Some of the predictive methodologies might also be erroneous in mistaking correlation with linear causation.

 

I'm thinking Dalton type minimum now, but could be wrong.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, these flakes are feather-sized at times. Huge. Wind is also making that groaning noise in the rafters of the roof, so I know it's above 40mph when that happens.

 

Still too warm for much accumulation so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thundersnow being reported in PA and NY with 1-3"/hr rates and a few gusts above 50mph in the NJ/Philly corridor as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lolz, thunderstorms w/ frequent lightning and waterspouts pound the Jersey Shore, while 1-3"/hr snow rates and gale force winds pound the Philly suburbs. Talk about a gradient and deformation zone. When this storm deepens and moves into New England..oh man they're gonna get smashed.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1DCA51E2-FF35-4B55-9F6F-C38A85D7CA8A_zpset13u6b4.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To think it was 70+ degrees just 12hrs ago. Now it's winter again.

 

Probably won't be the last whiplash event this year either. March loves to get all loopy like this in -ENSO years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Grand total of 0". Lol.

 

Puked snow for 3hrs but the surface temperatures were just too warm to accumulate. Also seeing a few 50mph gusts across the region today as the pressure gradient tightens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Snowshoe is getting the good stuff right now. Blinding snowfall on the webcams, gusts between 50-60mph, with temperatures sitting around 10 degrees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...