East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017

[weatherfan2012]

Justin Burke recorded a good storm with hail as it went over him so good to see some have gotten some interesting weather today.we had heavey rains/hail mix some wind one very close lighting strike loud thunder bang before the heavey rain.

[Phil]

I missed out on that line. I've been at Cape Cod for the weekend.

Ah, darn. At least there's another front coming midweek.

[Andie]

78 today, 84 tomorrow, then mid 60's through weekend.

Little to no chance of rain, then 5 days of 70.

 

What month is this ??

 

Allergens are very high, accompanied by congestion and headaches off the charts.

I've had a headache for almost 2 months. Honest.

[Phil]

Modeled soundings for Wednesday are crazy. Haven't seen anything like this in years..if the current wavetrain continues into/through the spring, this is gonna be a HUGE severe weather year, that much I'm sure of.

[weatherfan2012]

Modeled soundings for Wednesday are crazy. Haven't seen anything like this in years..if the current wavetrain continues into/through the spring, this is gonna be a HUGE severe weather year, that much I'm sure of.

let's do this this spring and summer anything to make up for this crap excuse of a winter we all just went through.those not really looking forward to the heat and dewpoints which I'm afrade is going to suck in a major way this summer giving the pattern we are seeing all ready.

[Phil]

let's do this this spring and summer anything to make up for this crap excuse of a winter we all just went through.those not really looking forward to the heat and dewpoints which I'm afrade is going to suck in a major way this summer giving the pattern we are seeing all ready.

Have to say, the winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15 feel like some sort of alternate reality at this point. Both of those years were throwing down singe digit/subzero lows like candy through the entirety of March. We still had a 15" snowpack by the end of March 2014.

 

It's like a switch was flipped in 2015/16. Has been so different since that super-niño.

[Phil]

Yeah, this summer is going to blow chunks. Dewpoint machine is gearing up.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png

[weatherfan2012]

Have to say, the winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15 feel like some sort of alternate reality at this point. Both of those years were throwing down singe digit/subzero lows like candy through the entirety of March. We still had a 15" snowpack by the end of March 2014.

It's like a switch was flipped in 2015/16. Has been so different since that super-niño.

plus we had a very odd Qbo which instead of switching east stayed west and got even stronger this go around and it very clear this is a very slow as hell to going about we may well be left with a mix qbo in 2017-2018 talk about a challenge forecasting wise if that comes about lol.

[Phil]

plus we had a very odd Qbo which instead of switching east stayed west and got even stronger this go around and it very clear this is a very slow as hell to going about we may well be left with a mix qbo in 2017-2018 talk about a challenge forecasting wise if that comes about lol.

I think next winter (2017/18) is either a "transition winter", or the grand finale of our torchy stretch. These blowtorch winters tend to come in bunches of two's or three's.

 

Regarding the timing the next modoki-Niño response to the upcoming solar wind drop, it looks like 2019/20 is the leading candidate, so that should be a huge winter. As for 2018/19, that's a big mystery as we're on the cusp of a slew of multidecadal flips by then.

 

Big string of Niñas likely in the early/mid 2020s.

[Andie]

Modeled soundings for Wednesday are crazy. Haven't seen anything like this in years..if the current wavetrain continues into/through the spring, this is gonna be a HUGE severe weather year, that much I'm sure of.

So, as an early exercise, which sections of the country will set he severe spring storms?

[Andie]

Saw and heard about 150+ geese heading Northward this afternoon. They stopped and circled overhead. Maybe it's a coincidence. But this is the second house I've had that they always stop and circle and wait for stragglers. They used to do it out on my property west of Ft. Worth, but the numbers were double that.

Gorgeous sight and sound.

 

Springs not far off.

[Black Hole]

I've been in San Antonio since last Wed, heading back today. Anyway it's been pretty warm and humid but dry. Still waiting for a good texas storm. At any rate I like how green it is here, it's a nice place other than the traffic.

[Phil]

Sunny, warm, muggy, and windy here. Feels like a severe day.

[weatherfan2012]

Lol DC may get the classic split yet again.hopefully it feels in for them as it looks to be trying to.

[weatherfan2012]

Very sort lived clearly those a few moments of gusty winds as the line went by and 5 mins of heavey rain no lighting and thunder with this at all mostly a wind issue.over all pretty lame compared to saterdays event in the reagion.

[Phil]

Hit 55mph here on 2nd wind sensor.

 

Quantico hit 78mph

Snowshoe hit 80mph

Germantown hit 66mph.

[Phil]

Need to move to Snowshoe!

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B48FEE2F-C2C5-461A-99AB-6A2DFA7A1385_zpsjvekwbq3.png

[Phil]

This sucked.

Looks like the deep layer warm frontal sub-sector never made it to your area. In other words, it's February.

 

A month from now, this setup is either a major tornado outbreak or a serial derecho.

[Phil]

Wind advisory just issued for 55mph gusts with the pressure surge later tonight. Gonna be another loud one.

[Phil]

Screaming out there, can't sleep.

[Phil]

Branches down everywhere on my way to class. Big dumpster was in the middle of the road on Rockville Pike.

[Andie]

I've been in San Antonio since last Wed, heading back today. Anyway it's been pretty warm and humid but dry. Still waiting for a good texas storm. At any rate I like how green it is here, it's a nice place other than the traffic.

San Antone is a very large area. Used to be a nice town. But we've had a very warm 6 weeks really. Spring like.

We normally would be freezing our tookus off with a north wind. Not this year. Everyone in Ft. worth already prepping yards for spring planting.

 

Glad you've been enjoying Texas. It really is a great place but sadly, too many west coasters are invading us and changing the overall culture.

Hope you get to enjoy a good old fashioned Texas storm soon.

[Black Hole]

San Antone is a very large area. Used to be a nice town. But we've had a very warm 6 weeks really. Spring like.

We normally would be freezing our tookus off with a north wind. Not this year. Everyone in Ft. worth already prepping yards for spring planting.

 

Glad you've been enjoying Texas. It really is a great place but sadly, too many west coasters are invading us and changing the overall culture.

Hope you get to enjoy a good old fashioned Texas storm soon.

 

One of these times it will work out! I also took a trip down to Corpus Christi and went to the beach. It was nice enough to get in the water which I enjoyed. I think it was about 90F that day, so well above normal temperatures. 

[Andie]

Yeah, we can have some wild swings here. I've seem Christmas in the 90's and in the teens. A foot of snow in January and heat and drought. Just crazy.

This winter is a little dry and the Mt. cedar, Juniper allergies are very high. I've had a headache for 2 months.

 

Glad Corpus gave you some nice weather. While we don't get the big waves, it's a nice beach to hang out on.

[Phil]

Temps in the upper teens/low 20s this morning killed off many of the buds and flowers. Also some hints that we might be flirting with a late-season snow event next week..obviously tougher at this time of year but plausible given the upcoming -NAO burst.

[Phil]

Woah, 00z GFS buries Fred with three snowstorms totaling approximately 30" (40"+ central PA).

 

I get table scraps. Need a slight south trend.

[Phil]

00z CMC is too far south. Middle road = victory.

[Andie]

Sunny and 80 today, chance of rain tonight, then 70 tomorrow.

Let's face it, it's spring.

 

My husband was in Las Vegas for a Conference and last last night a huge storm rolled through leaving this monster hotel with no power for about 12 hours. It's chilly and very windy out there, so playing tourist was not pleasant. Sounds like a bust of a trip.

[Phil]

Too far south on the Euro.

If we miss, it'll be to the south. I'll take the 18z GFS and run.

[Andie]

Mid 70's to 80 for the next 8 days or so. Best chance of rain is Saturday night, maybe 1/4".

 

It would be very nice to have another cold snap, but I doubt I'll see it. Unless we get a pre-Easter surprise.

[weatherfan2012]

If we miss, it'll be to the south. I'll take the 18z GFS and run.

the problem with the storm is we have a north pacific rige in place the Pacific has been unfavorable all winter and again it seems to be what may be killing things here yet again.in other words nothing is coming easy for snow this winter.those be careful what you wish for as in a few winters down the road we may just get absolutely creamed with snow As things tend to balance them selfs out.what will ultimately be the real slap in the face if we have a cold late March and April after such a warm snow less winter if we have a sucky spring all the sudden that going to be quite pissey lol.thing that going to be a pain to forecast is this may be a three peace system first wave north Friday seacond south sunday? And the final early next week which is why while hyping big storm is for sure going on a limp completely dismissing something in this period is just as bad going to be a period of hair out forecasting to see what these 3 waves do.

[Phil]

Heavy winds woke me up from a dead sleep last night, gusts between 40-60mph regionwide.

 

Took off some siding and part of the gutter helmet.

[Andie]

Geez Phil, seems like you're always repairing the homestead from all this wind! Gets expensive after a while, no?

 

We'll have 80* rain Friday and Saturday. About .60"

If that isn't spring I don't know what is. We have have roses starting to bloom ! Lol

[Phil]

Geez Phil, seems like you're always repairing the homestead from all this wind! Gets expensive after a while, no?

 

We'll have 80* rain Friday and Saturday. About .60"

If that isn't spring I don't know what is. We have have roses starting to bloom ! Lol

Going to be quite a few touch-ups after this one, yeah.

 

The mid February event literally blew cars out of their parking spots at Montgomery Mall.

[Phil]

Maybe something fun next week.

I'll be in FL between the 15th and the 20th, so count on it.

[Phil]

High was 70 degrees today.

 

Could be snowing tomorrow evening. #march

[Phil]

00z GFS is even deeper/further west. Nukes Fred.

[Phil]

Snowing this morning..it was 70+ degrees 18hrs ago.

[Phil]

Haha, 06z GFS puts an 85kt LLJ and monster UVVs right over Fred's head on Tuesday. Verbatim, with dynamics like that we're talking about a period of 4-6"/hr rates and 60-70mph winds well inland.

[Phil]

CMC whiffs to the south. Ordinarily I wouldn't care but it was the first to recognize the south miss for Sunday's storm.