Jan 10th/11th Disturbance - Is that snow or middle fingers falling from the sky?

[Money]

0z GFS coming in a lot stronger farther west. Likely won't be a good run..

[Tom]

Another ND special this run...it's almost getting to be laughable (In a wierd way) how much of a magnet that region has been!

[gosaints]

Its a beauty.... For fargo. If its a nice storm its gonna be north

[Money]

Rain..

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/114/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Still hits Minny pretty good...St Paul does good

[Money]

GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

GEM more wound up farther SE than GFS:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

[gosaints]

Snow then rain then snow. Dont see that much

[Money]

GFS actually gets it down to 982 in northern MI with some decent wrap around snow potential:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/126/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[Tom]

The amount of wound up storms the Upper Midwest/Lakes have had this season is mind boggling and we ain't half way thru.

[Money]

Here's total with wraparound snows:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/132/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Temps dropping 20-25 degrees in 6 hours in some places. 

[GDR]

[St Paul Storm]

Still hits Minny pretty good...St Paul does good

If I got only half of the snow the models showed 5 days out this winter I'd be a happy man. But I've seen this act before. When we wake up tomorrow and view the 6z runs this puppy is gonna be a Dakotas special. The NW trend is real.

[gosaints]

If I got only half of the snow the models showed 5 days out this winter I'd be a happy man. But I've seen this act before. When we wake up tomorrow and view the 6z runs this puppy is gonna be a Dakotas special. The NW trend is real.

Ya I would side with your thinking

[Tom]

00z GEFS showing a wound up warm cutter

[james1976]

6z Gfs north

[GDR]

Looks like middle fingers falling from the sky will win out

[Tom]

According to what Gary Lezak said in his blog this morning, I think this storm is correlating with the one that hit on Nov 17th-18th and is taking nearly the same identical track again which will target ND/MN and possibly a little more in WI than in the previous cycle.

[jaster220]

The amount of wound up storms the Upper Midwest/Lakes have had this season is mind boggling and we ain't half way thru.

 

They've wound-up (and been wound-up, lol) all winter north of Superior. Not sure that qualifies as "The Lakes". And with them so warm, the cold comes in late and thus we get LES in a sort of delayed reaction scenario. Still waiting for a storm like recent GGEM shows where the system's actually bombing and forcing cold air in with a low baro. Backside bliz conditions can be a nice consolation prize if you miss the synoptic hit, but the set-up is a rare one. Again, models have shown them wound-up over MI, but in reality they've ended up way west at their peak strength benefiting Dakotas and MN more than MI.

[Tom]

They've wound-up (and been wound-up, lol) all winter north of Superior. Not sure that qualifies as "The Lakes". And with them so warm, the cold comes in late and thus we get LES in a sort of delayed reaction scenario. Still waiting for a storm like recent GGEM shows where the system's actually bombing and forcing cold air in with a low baro. Backside bliz conditions can be a nice consolation prize if you miss the synoptic hit, but the set-up is a rare one. Again, models have shown them wound-up over MI, but in reality they've ended up way west at their peak strength benefiting Dakotas and MN more than MI.

Ok Mr. Technicality!  LOL, you could put a "N" in front of "The Lakes" to make it more clearer.     Getting a wound up storm to form to our SW is going to be really tough in this pattern we are in.  Unless of course, things change in Feb and the AO really tanks as well as some better blocking near Greenland.

[gosaints]

Will be cutting through the arrowhead before nlong

[Tom]

Poof! Go the snow chances.

[gosaints]

epic

[St Paul Storm]

I'll wave as this low passes to my NW on the 18z run. But hey, the 12z GFS now shows the system on the 12th makes up for the one that'll pass NW on the 10th. We're always a week away from a storm. Gotta love it.

[gosaints]

hey it will still showing money cashing in for 1 more run.  By 0z he will be on the outside looking in

[jaster220]

Ok Mr. Technicality!  LOL, you could put a "N" in front of "The Lakes" to make it more clearer.     Getting a wound up storm to form to our SW is going to be really tough in this pattern we are in.  Unless of course, things change in Feb and the AO really tanks as well as some better blocking near Greenland.

 

Sure need that, don't we. 

 

Warning, the following map showing KTOL with over 2 feet is totally:

 

 

 

 

 

Niko, we need a slight bump north buddy! #shades-of-67

[gosaints]

Sure need that, don't we. 

 

Warning, the following map showing KTOL with over 2 feet is totally:

 

20161107 Snow Clownage.png

 

20170107 GFS 0z 228hr snowfall.png

 

Niko, we need a slight bump north buddy! #shades-of-67

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/240/snku_acc.us_mw.pngAll sleet in there

[St Paul Storm]

GEM isn't quite buying the complete NW trend like the GFS, but it's on its way.

[jaster220]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/240/snku_acc.us_mw.pngAll sleet in there

 

Slightly different than TT's map, eh? Fluke?

[gosaints]

Slightly different than TT's map, eh? Fluke?

Pivotal takes into account ratios using the kuchera method.  

[Niko]

Sure need that, don't we. 

 

Warning, the following map showing KTOL with over 2 feet is totally:

 

20161107 Snow Clownage.png

 

20170107 GFS 0z 228hr snowfall.png

 

Niko, we need a slight bump north buddy! #shades-of-67

Not sure if I am reading the numbers right, but, that shows my area between 18-24". Man, that looks real snowy.

[gosaints]

Not sure if I am reading the numbers right, but, that shows my area between 18-24". Man, that looks real snowy.

Lol that run verbatim gave u a solid 4 inches of sleet.  Its a 10:1 ratio map that counts anything frozen as snow. 

[St Paul Storm]

I don't have Euro access so I can't tell, but if there's precip with the low on the 12z run some of us could cash in. The low bombs out on its way from SW IA to Ontario.

[gosaints]

I don't have Euro access so I can't tell, but if there's precip with the low on the 12z run some of us could cash in. The low bombs out on its way from SW IA to Ontario.

Would think the EURO would look better for you than the GFS

[hlcater]

Wisconsin and MN cash in, everyone to the south gets nada.

[Grizzcoat]

The EURO is good for msp-

TUE 00Z 10-JAN  -7.1    -4.8    1015      84      97    0.09     548     536   
TUE 06Z 10-JAN  -5.1    -6.1    1006      84      99    0.08     544     539   
TUE 12Z 10-JAN  -4.1    -4.0     997      84     100    0.09     538     540   
TUE 18Z 10-JAN  -3.5    -7.9     995      82      88    0.10     530     534   
WED 00Z 11-JAN -12.9   -16.6    1006      75      95    0.16     522     518   
WED 06Z 11-JAN -17.7   -17.0    1018      75       3    0.00     525     512

[St Paul Storm]

Looks good! Thanks for the text output. Much appreciated.

[Money]

The EURO is good for msp-

TUE 00Z 10-JAN -7.1 -4.8 1015 84 97 0.09 548 536

TUE 06Z 10-JAN -5.1 -6.1 1006 84 99 0.08 544 539

TUE 12Z 10-JAN -4.1 -4.0 997 84 100 0.09 538 540

TUE 18Z 10-JAN -3.5 -7.9 995 82 88 0.10 530 534

WED 00Z 11-JAN -12.9 -16.6 1006 75 95 0.16 522 518

WED 06Z 11-JAN -17.7 -17.0 1018 75 3 0.00 525 512

How does it look for kosh?

[jaster220]

Pivotal takes into account ratios using the kuchera method.  

 

I was posting it for clownage basically and good laughs cuz what gosaints said, TT map was counting 4-6" of sleet as snow :lol:

 

Lol that run verbatim gave u a solid 4 inches of sleet.  Its a 10:1 ratio map that counts anything frozen as snow. 

 

At least 4, maybe 6    But, that's the only way we can get a model to flash such huge snow totals lol

[Niko]

Lol that run verbatim gave u a solid 4 inches of sleet.  Its a 10:1 ratio map that counts anything frozen as snow. 

We shall see! UGH!! That would be awful if that were to happen.

 

Watch we get a 2-3ft snowstorm and Jaster and I are the winners in this whole entire sub-forum. Ya neva know. Keep hope alive! :lol: