Jan 10th/11th Disturbance - Is that snow or middle fingers falling from the sky?

[Niko]

86-87 and 88-89 were two seasons where that was the "norm" in SEMI. Literally 4" would fall and be gone 6 hrs later. I remember one day I left work a little early after we had a nice solid 4-5" to zip home and fire up my snowmobile. I knew if I waited til morning, lol, it'd be long gone. Snow falls and snow cover were that pathetic.

Good move!!!!

 

FWIW: hopefully the pattern improves for the better as January wears on and we get some cold snow systems and not slopfest. December was not bad here as 2 systems dumped a good snowfall here in SMI. Once January came though, the pattern became a little sloppy. Lets hope for the best. We still have a lot of winter to cope with.

[jaster220]

Good move!!!!

 

FWIW: hopefully the pattern improves for the better as January wears on and we get some cold snow systems and not slopfest. December was not bad here as 2 systems dumped a good snowfall here in SMI. Once January came though, the pattern became a little sloppy. Lets hope for the best. We still have a lot of winter to cope with.

 

Yeah, this is acting a lot like 81-82 in the January frustration analogs for SMI dept.

 

LOL @ DTX's headlines donut hole. Surrounded by WWA's but they're still scratching their heads (butts?). Even a little snow>sleet>ice goes a long ways when the ground is frozen underneath like it surely is now. Pull the D**n trigger - sheesh! (k, they prolly did - just as I was typing this silly reply )

[Snowshoe]

Nice use of the word Hydrometeors by NWS La Crosse. Should be a few surprises overnight.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
300 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

Snow to a wintry mix is the main forecast concern tonight into
Tuesday. Ice in cloud-low level warming playing a big role in pcpn
type, and adds some uncertainty to the forecast.


1) This evening: low level warm air advection and favorable
isentropic upglide on the 280:295 K sfcs, coupled with a northwest-
southeast running frontogenetic band, will continue to fuel the
current band of snow across MN and western WI. Time/height x-
sections and bufkit soundings favor mostly snow as the pcpn type,
although some threat for freezing pcpn across the far south.


2) Overnight: focus for pcpn turns more to a west-east running
frontogenetic boundary, which meso models and nam/gfs place right
around the I-90 corridor.

Persistent dry low/mid layer across the south per bufkit soundings
(roughly 700-850 mb) continues, and likely too large to overcome
with a seeder-feeder process. Thus, freezing pcpn the higher threat.
Temps/Tds warming through the night, and likely at or above 32 F by
12z for far northeast IA/southwest WI. That said, road temps are
cool and could support ice accumulation. Tough, tough scenario - and
will have to be monitored closely. Obvious impacts to the morning
commute and school buses if icing is realized.

To the far north, temp profiles and rh still say ice will be in the
cloud and it will stay cold, so snow remains the pcpn type.

In between (around I-90) it looks more like a mixed bag, with
partial to complete melting of any hydrometeors possible, bringing
sleet/freezing pcpn into question...along with snow.


3) Tuesday: Upper level shortwave spins across the Northern Plains
and then across the local area. Models suggesting a bit stronger
compared to some previous runs, and maybe a bit farther south. This
trough will work on that west-east running boundary, and also help
with lift along its associated cold front (which it pushes into
western WI by 18z Tue). Expect some enhancement in the pcpn areas by
18z as this all comes together, favoring the the I-94 corridor and
northeast IA/southwest WI. QPF also higher.


4) End result? Snow accumulations from 3 to 5 inches from I-94
north. Winter weather advisory still looks good for Clark/Taylor
counties in north-central WI. See some potential for expansion
southward a county, but will leave current setup as is.

I-90 corridor around an inch (or so) for snow, with some light
icing possible.

South of I-90, icing the main concern for a few hours, closer to 12z
Tue. Challenging forecast here with increasing temps, ice in cloud,
and road temps all coming into play.


5)Caveat: 18z GFS/NAM coming in more agressive with generating qpf
along the west-east boundary region Tue morning as the shortwave
trough approaching - and lingering it a bit longer. Potential
snow/icing amounts may be on the rise if this trend continues.

Keep up on latest forecast for adjustments and potential expansion
to headlines.

[jaster220]

 

Hydrometeors

 

Haha! I love those, haven't seen any since the 80's so not sure I'll recognize 'em it's been so long

[gosaints]

Rip city

[Tom]

It was nice to see the flakes fly earlier today. Whitened up the streets/sidewalks but that's about it. Looks good up north and east into MI.

[Tom]

Jaster/WestJim look to be getting hit hard.

[jaster220]

Rip city

Sweet! Gotta love a GRR WWA ”..near zero visibility at times". This storm has gotten no air time and suddenly warnings are flying. With the ground now frozen it may catch some folks by surprise!

[jaster220]

Jaster/WestJim look to be getting hit hard.

Fluffy flakes just started. I see the latest map bumped start time to 10 pm after all. IWX has 2" south of me while GRR says less than 1" for Marshall. We'll see who does better.

[Tom]

I remember it was NYD when the GFS modeled this wave and here we are present day and I gotta say, it did a pretty good job over 8 days ago.

[jaster220]

I remember it was NYD when the GFS modeled this wave and here we are present day and I gotta say, it did a pretty good job over 8 days ago.

Longer range seems to be improving while mid range is worse??

 

Pound town outside now!! Looks like 1/2" in first 15 mins

[St Paul Storm]

Rip city

Nice. Didn't realize a new pocket of snow was developing down there. Looks like things are already reloading out west too. Hoping for a few inches tomorrow....as long as it's not during rush hour. Tonight was a disaster in the TC metro.

[jaster220]

Hearing some chatta about 60 knot winds mixing down towards morning. Would be cool to add that to this nice little surprise of a system.

[Tom]

00z GFS gets the SLP down to 981mb near the E U.P. of MI...

[westMJim]

Jaster/WestJim look to be getting hit hard.

 Just took a measurement now at 1.5” of new snow tonight. Now have 5.5” on the ground. Still getting light snow here with a 15MPH south wind the temperature here in now 26°.  My wife and me are heading down south in the morning. We are taking a 8 day cruise. Looks like to start of the drive tomorrow will be a slow go. 

[Tom]

Just took a measurement now at 1.5” of new snow tonight. Now have 5.5” on the ground. Still getting light snow here with a 15MPH south wind the temperature here in now 26°. My wife and me are heading down south in the morning. We are taking a 8 day cruise. Looks like to start of the drive tomorrow will be a slow go.

Sweet! What destinations are you going on a cruise to? Island hopping'?

[jaster220]

00z GFS gets the SLP down to 981mb near the E U.P. of MI...

Hah! My bombing storm! Too bad CAA isn't there for a LES event. Maybe later in the month.

[westMJim]

Sweet! What destinations are you going on a cruise to? Island hopping'?

We are leaving out of Port Canaveral and going to Grand Turk, San Juan, St Kitts and St. Maarten 

[Niko]

I wouldn't be surprised if numbers end up a bit higher or lower. Its a waiting game on totals with this system.

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

do you have any accumulations so far?

[Snowshoe]

Haven't been outside to measure yet. Highest I've seen reported in NE Wisconsin.

 

At 6:30 AM, Francis Creek [Manitowoc Co, WI] CO-OP OBSERVER reports SNOW of 6.00 INCH #GRB https://t.co/qQQXbLmBWy

[St Paul Storm]

Snowing nicely here for about the last 90 minutes. Big fat dendrites and no wind. Looks Aspen-like out there.

[james1976]

Another 33-35° rain event

[Snowshoe]

About 3.5" overnight. Snow and sleet on the drive to work this morning. I can't get that Mr.Rodgers song out of my head.

 

"It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood, a beautiful day in the neighborhood...."

[FV-Mike]

Radar looks better for MSP

[Tom]

Storm is wrapping up nicely.  Surprised how far north the warm tongue is creeping up into GRB area.

[Niko]

Nice snowfall indeed. 4.3" in total with freezing drizzle being reported now. Winter wonderland out there.

[Tom]

Nice snowfall indeed. 4.3" in total with freezing drizzle being reported now. Winter wonderland out there.

That is a pretty good "thump" snow for ya...looks like the inevitable changeover is on your door step...

[james1976]

Waste of a storm over here. Mid 30s and heavy rain.

[Niko]

That is a pretty good "thump" snow for ya...looks like the inevitable changeover is on your door step...

You betcha.....its awesome out there. 

[Tom]

Waste of a storm over here. Mid 30s and heavy rain.

Agree, nice healthy defo band in IA/S WI but its heavy rain in early January!  Just horrible to see.  MN/N WI/N MI will be the winners no doubt

[St Paul Storm]

Half dollars falling from the sky. Total rip city. Eyeballing it for now but I think we're pushing 3" already. That was supposed to be the max for today. Still several hours to go.

[Stormgeek]

This is a nice little surprise! Here just north of the immediate Twin Cities metro snow has been coming down at a good clip for a while. The roads and drive in today were absolutely miserable... The freeways were moving at single digits for much of my drive.

[gosaints]

coming down good know.. had some rain/sleet this morning

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

do you have any accumulations so far?

Nice snowfall indeed. 4.3" in total with freezing drizzle being reported now. Winter wonderland out there.

 

'Grats!

 

I scored 2 or a bit better (wait n see what spotters report around me to confirm) of really stout dense snow, the kind I prefer. Kiddies even got a snow day in Marshall thanks to the timing be perfect. Thinking it was still rip city when they had to make a decision and with the back road icing likely for buses, prolly a good call to just close.

 

Rare to see Saginaw Bay with a Storm Warning issued, and yeah, they dropped temps about 10 deg's for Thursday over here as well.

[jaster220]

Baro watch time! What's the lowest anybody is seeing??  At 11 am Gwynn in the UP was reporting 994.5 mb - lowest I could see in MI.

[Double D]

Around 5.25" total

[Tom]

Around 5.25" total

You must of gotten some pretty darn good rates...

[Niko]

'Grats!

 

I scored 2 or a bit better (wait n see what spotters report around me to confirm) of really stout dense snow, the kind I prefer. Kiddies even got a snow day in Marshall thanks to the timing be perfect. Thinking it was still rip city when they had to make a decision and with the back road icing likely for buses, prolly a good call to just close.

 

Rare to see Saginaw Bay with a Storm Warning issued, and yeah, they dropped temps about 10 deg's for Thursday over here as well.

Better than nothin.....

[Niko]

It looks like that rain is fizzling out as it heads towards me. Looking at the current radar, that is what it seems like. Who knows, maybe no rain at all IMBY.